Speculation on the Peaks of Bitcoin Bull Markets and the Bottoms of Bear Markets: Analysis Based on Historical Cycles

Through a detailed review and in-depth analysis of two cycles of Bitcoin bull and bear markets, I have unearthed a significant pattern: Bitcoin typically takes about 884 days to rise from the lowest point at the bottom to the highest point at the top during each bull market phase, after which it enters an adjustment period and embarks on a lengthy bear market journey.

In detail:
- First Cycle: Started from the bottom in January 2015, reaching the peak of the bull market in December 2017, lasting approximately 884 days.

- Second Cycle: Beginning from the bottom in January 2019, Bitcoin again peaked in the bull market in November 2021, also lasting around 884 days.

Focusing on the current bull market, Bitcoin's price fell to around 15,000 in October 2022, marking the bottom of the bear market. Based on the aforementioned timeframe, it is highly likely that the peak of this bull market will occur around August 2025.

Moreover, I have noticed that the time interval between the bottoms of every two bull markets is approximately 1290 days. If this pattern continues, the next bear market bottom may appear around June 2026.

If you want to delve deeper into the crypto space but can't find a starting point, and wish to quickly understand the information gap, whether it's contracts or spot trading, you can 👉 learn more in my profile #DOGE狂潮 #新任SEC主席

Urgent! XRP holders, the next 24 hours are super important!
XRP friends, pay attention! In the next 24 hours, there might be big news about XRP!
?? Why do I say this?
Recently, there have been many rumors about significant changes in XRP's price and future, such as potential big news, court rulings, or market fluctuations. The case between Ripple and the SEC has already made XRP quite popular in the cryptocurrency circle, and everyone is excited.
?? Let's see the current situation:
1?? Price: XRP's price is currently hovering at a critical position. If it breaks through, it might soar, but we also need to be careful as volatility could increase.
2?? News announcements: We must keep an eye on Ripple's official news, SEC developments, and any major events that might impact XRP.
3?? Trading volume: A sudden increase in trading volume might indicate that big players are getting ready to act.
?? Tips for XRP holders:
Stay updated on the news so you can react quickly to any changes. You can set buy and sell points to control risks during major market fluctuations. If you plan to hold XRP for the long term, now is a good opportunity as XRP is becoming more popular in cross-border payments and banking systems.
If you want to dig deeper into the cryptocurrency space but can't find a clear direction,
Want to understand information asymmetry, whether it's contracts or spot trading, you can check out my content for more insights.
If you like contracts, enjoy market analysis, and studying techniques, click on my profile. I share my years of experience and tips in the cryptocurrency space for free. I'm waiting for you in the circle, always online, welcome to discuss and grow together.

Guidance relies on noble people, walking relies on oneself!

If you want to learn more about the cryptocurrency world and access cutting-edge information, click on my avatar to follow me. A player who can multiply investments tenfold in a month is also open to copy trading. Daily market analysis and recommendations for quality potential coins.
#DOGE狂潮 $BTC $ETH $BNB

ETH quickly retraced with BTC early this morning, but completed a perfect pullback~ Continuing bullish!
Short target: upper channel
DOGE is moving slowly, oscillation continues to be bullish
#DOGE狂潮 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥

I am a purely left-side trader; the contract itself is about making big profits from small investments. I started with 10u, and after making 300u, I ended up getting liquidated. At that time, I was doing right-side trading without knowing anything, only chasing highs and cutting losses. However, the fluctuating K-lines would break my psychological state, and later, due to chaotic operations, I faced liquidation.
I realized that technical skills are also very important, so I began to learn. I no longer believe in posts from forums or those who show off their trades with pictures.
From my personal summary, having a strong mindset is just as important as technical analysis. (Even if your stop loss is hit, do not infinitely expand the stop loss range; it will only lead to greater losses.) There are many opportunities in this market; we need to learn to wait.
I want to share my strategy, hoping it will help some friends who feel confused. Of course, one needs to learn and comprehend it by themselves.
Firstly, I use multiple indicators to predict entry points. If I have enough time, I will wait for the entry signal. If I need to sleep or rest and I am extremely confident in my judgment, I will place a limit order (I must set a stop loss of 1.5%-3%). Do not always worry that your stop loss will hit and result in a loss; instead, think that if your judgment is wrong, the stop loss will help reduce your losses.
I will look for direction and key points on a larger scale. First, I will look for key support and resistance levels. Then, I will use Fibonacci to determine key retracement points; I will provide an example below.
If a coin surges, I will first mark the support and resistance levels. I will use Fibonacci to find 0.618 and 0.786, combined with analysis. This is not my entry signal; the key is to use the MACD on a larger scale to determine if there’s a possibility of a change in market momentum.
I will not trade coins that are rising because I am a left-side trader. Every day, I look for pullbacks and coins that have been consolidating for many days. (With coins in consolidation, you don’t know when they will surge, but you can achieve 20%-40% contracts with 75x leverage from the oscillations.)
Once you have technical analysis for comparison, the most important thing is execution. Do not enter positions at support levels that are not crucial; when you reach your target position, you must set a stop loss. Never change any targets manually without a stop loss! The stop loss can be calculated using the ATR average value. I advise everyone that the market is very harsh; do not blindly follow others. Improving oneself is the long-term strategy. I hope this helps everyone. If you like contracts, enjoy studying charts and technical analysis, click on my avatar; I have years of experience and skills in the crypto space and will share them freely. I'm here in the community, online anytime, welcome to discuss and progress together.

The Blood and Tears Warning from a Veteran in the Crypto Space: Even in a Bull Market, There are Big Pits, Don't Repeat My Mistakes!
I jumped headfirst into the crypto space in 2018, and today I want to share all the pitfalls and falls I've experienced over the years, hoping to remind everyone not to follow in my footsteps.
Contracts - The Deadly Trap in Crypto
A bull market is not just a straight surge; the K-line chart rises and falls, following wave theory, and fluctuations are the norm. While we can analyze the major trends and build cycle models, no one can accurately predict the ups and downs within 15 minutes. Many people, however, take chances and dive into contract trading.
Contracts carry a gambler's nature, predicting price movements is like flipping a coin, and while it seems like a 50/50 chance, the reality is that nine out of ten times you lose. When you win, greed takes over, wanting to capitalize on the momentum and expand your victories; when you lose, you become unwilling to accept it, focusing entirely on recovering your losses. Casinos understand human weaknesses well; they are not afraid of you winning temporarily but fear you leaving without playing. The same applies to the contract market. After a night's sleep, market conditions can change abruptly, a large bearish candle can wipe out your account in an instant.
Mental Collapse - The Fatal Injury of Retail Investors
Chasing highs and cutting losses has become an epidemic in the crypto space. Watching prices soar, you feel a rush of adrenaline and rush in; when prices fall, you panic and immediately cut your losses. Some even take out loans to invest in crypto, completely engulfed by anxiety. Burdened with high-interest loans, all you can think about is breaking even, leading to a complete imbalance in your mindset. All the technical analysis and investment strategies learned before are thrown out the window, becoming slaves to emotions, repeatedly harvested by the market.
A Guide to Avoid Pitfalls for Newcomers
1. Information Screening: The crypto space is full of mixed information; news should be read, but you need to develop a keen eye to filter reliable sources, avoiding misleading rumors and false hype.
2. Slow Work Produces Fine Products: K-line trends are an important reference, but don’t rush in just because you see an upward trend. Calm down, analyze more, and understand the methods before taking action; haste makes waste.
3. Time Compounding: Investment is not a sprint; it’s a marathon. Give yourself time to grow, allowing knowledge and experience to ferment slowly, abandon the fantasy of becoming rich overnight, and proceed steadily, letting time be your wealth partner.
Follow for updates; if you have questions that need consulting or want to exchange and learn together. See the cooking industry introduction to avoid unnecessary troubles.

So you understand, the market is manipulated with a probability of over 80%. Besides controlling your position, you must also respond proactively. You must resolutely avoid entering the market before confirming the actions of the operators; once you enter, the exchange becomes the butcher, and you become the fish and meat.

Trading is a test of patience, composure, and timing. Let's encourage each other.

Many times, you lose many profitable opportunities due to your doubts. You are afraid to boldly try, engage, and understand. How can you know the pros and cons without taking the first step? Only by taking that step will you know how to proceed next.

If you want to learn more about cryptocurrency-related knowledge and the latest cutting-edge information, click on my profile to follow me. Players who can multiply their investment tenfold in a month are also welcome to copy trades. Daily market analysis and recommendations for quality potential coins.

$BNB may rise for the following reasons:
1. The Trump administration may open up IPO listings for cryptocurrency companies, including Binance US.
2. Multiple sources indicate that Binance is not being acquired, but rather looking to bring in strategic investors, possibly at a government level, with Abu Dhabi or Dubai being the most likely candidates at present.
3. The BNB chain has been very active recently, such as chain development upgrades, and the official involvement in liquidity pools, which is quite aggressive.
If you enjoy contracts, like to study charts, and research technology, click on my avatar. I have years of experience and tips in the crypto space, and I'm here to share them for free. I'm waiting for you in the community, online anytime. Welcome to discuss and improve together $SOL $ETH #山寨币市场观察 #历史见证者打卡 #DOGE狂潮 #新任SEC主席

$PNUT The next SHIB is the Musk-themed puppy, the strongest dog on the Ethereum chain #山寨币市场观察 #DOGE狂潮 ##历史见证者打卡 #比特币回升至97K

December 6th, Friday Night Analysis of Bitcoin

Recently, Bitcoin broke through 100,000 and quickly fell back to around 90,000. Bitcoin is currently quoted at around 97,900.

My personal prediction is that opportunities this week lie in tonight, but it may continue to fluctuate downward during the day. 99,000 is a key point for Bitcoin; if it breaks through, it is expected to continue to explore 100,000. Currently, the market is highly volatile, and short-term momentum is insufficient. Evening operations are mainly focused on high volatility.

Bitcoin: Around 99,000-98,500, with the target first looking at around 96,500.

If the breakout trend continues, it can continue to look down to 111,454,233,470,970,207,915,979,024,507,960,402,554,923,75.

Musk posted: Doge is unstoppable.
​Subsequently, the price of Dogecoin skyrocketed in a short period, with an increase of over 10% at one point. Musk's influence is evident; every statement he makes on social media can trigger significant market fluctuations.
​According to statistics, the market capitalization of Dogecoin is also steadily rising, successfully breaking into the top ten cryptocurrencies in the world.
​Although Musk's optimism about Dogecoin has excited many people. ​​​​

Cryptocurrency essentials, click on the homepage to follow me for potential hundred-fold gains in the bull market, as well as daily spot strategies!

In terms of market capitalization, Dogecoin (DOGE) as the largest Dogecoin may exhibit a rise similar to XRP. It is said that since November, DOGE has experienced a remarkable increase. There are similarities between the DOGE chart and the XRP chart. DOGE is reportedly ready to embrace a rising trend like XRP. The similarity between Dogecoin (DOGE) and XRP Since November 12, DOGE has not taken stable action, consolidating between $0.48 and $0.34 for several weeks. Despite the long-standing uncertainty surrounding DOGE, analysts still have hopes for continued rise. The chart shows three descending wedge patterns. According to analysis, the first wedge occurred between 2014 and 2017 and ended with a significant increase. The second wedge occurred between 2018 and 2021, opening the door for an important bull market. When the second wedge was broken, DOGE reached its all-time high of $0.74. Dogecoin is expected to emerge from the third and latest wedge pattern, which has lasted from mid-2021 to 2024, and set new records, with a likelihood of the Dogecoin price increasing by $1 at the end of the third wedge pattern. Recently, in the Meme project, Elon Musk's beloved DOGE and SHIB have gained traction, while another of Musk's favorites, Marvin, is also about to rise. Musk has created a coin specifically for his beloved pets, and interested friends can leave comments in the discussion area.

$DOGE #DOGE狂潮

Old Ma's speech at the government efficiency department today didn't have much effect on Doge.

Continue to buy Lafite, unstoppable.

For those who missed out, just wait for the callback 🤔

Keep watching xvg, sol, xrp, pepe.

The magic order I have been preparing for these days is about to start! ! !
It is still very easy to double it,
At the same time, I am also preparing to find some potential coins to get by the end of the year,
Comment 888 to get on board! ! !
#BTC新高10W #历史见证者打卡 #DOGE狂潮 #新任SEC主席 #美国合规概念币走扬

Focus during the day: doge act the pepe pnut xrp neiro ordi

Looking back at today's market, it is indeed exciting, witnessing a historic moment — the price has first broken through the 100,000 mark. A few months ago, such a level was almost unimaginable, but today it has come to fruition. After a strong surge in the morning, the market returned to a familiar oscillating rhythm, with the day's strategy primarily focused on buying the dips. During the process of the market rising by 10,000 points, our long positions were also entered multiple times, achieving quite considerable profits. The recent volatility has given us many opportunities, but it also reminds us to remain calm in such dramatic market conditions.
From the current market perspective, the daily chart shows consecutive bullish candles, with lower lows continuously rising, and the short-term rebound momentum remains strong, still operating within an upward channel. On the 4-hour chart, the price has seen some retracement, and the small cycle has broken through the middle track support, indicating there is still room for further decline in the short term. However, the support at the 100,000 mark should not be underestimated. In contrast, Ethereum, although slow, remains strong, with short-term upward space still available. Currently, we continue to hold a bullish view, focusing on the presence of the 100,000 mark for Bitcoin, while Ethereum is expected to continue its gradual upward trend for a catch-up.
Bitcoin buy near 100,000, target around 105,000
Ethereum buy at 3900-3880, target around 4070 #BTC新高10W #历史见证者打卡 #DOGE狂潮 #新任SEC主席

Witnessing a historic moment, this morning the pie exceeded the $100,000 mark, setting a historic high of 104,630.

On November 21, the market reached a high of 99,660 US dollars, and has been fluctuating and adjusting, and then fell to a recent low of 90,866 US dollars.

Today the pie exceeded the $100,000 mark. Brother Ming has already warned everyone not to blindly short-sell, and now it has been perfectly verified.

Under the rhythm of this crazy cow, once again grasp the opportunity accurately, keep up with the pace and seize the opportunity, which is better than gold and silver! $BTC $ETH $XRP #BTC新高10W #历史见证者打卡 #DOGE狂潮 #新任SEC主席 #美国合规概念币走扬

In the midday market, the price comparison strongly surged to the 104,630 line before retracting slightly, touching a bottom rebound near 101300. This pullback provided us with a very good entry opportunity. We entered Bitcoin at the 10185 position, waiting to exit at 103095, gaining 1245 points. Ethereum simultaneously gained 69 points. The current bull market is obvious; it is recommended that everyone avoid blindly trying to short at high positions, as the risk and reward are not proportional. It is better to observe than to take the risk of chasing shorts.

From the current market perspective, Bitcoin has broken through the 100,000 mark, with no significant pressure above; the market shows an upward trend that seems limitless. If one shorts carelessly at this time, it may end up like before, where a 'high' becomes a 'low'. It's not impossible to enter a short position, but be sure to be cautious. From the four-hour chart, the bullish engulfing situation is obvious, with the operating range firmly at the upper track, showing no significant signs of retracement. In the smaller cycles, the operating range is narrowing, and it is expected that the market will continue to oscillate in the short term. We maintain a bullish outlook and pay attention to the impact of the U.S. stock market opening on the market.

Buy Bitcoin at 102700-102300, target around 105000.
Buy Ethereum at 3920-3900, target around 4000.

Recommended William indicator combined with Bollinger Bands
I hope every day will be the home show of love

#BTC新高10W #DOGE狂潮

12.6 Friday Morning Bitcoin Market Analysis!

This wave of market activity was unexpected, with a deep washout for both bulls and bears. The price dropped sharply from today's high of 104,600 down to around 90,200, falling more than 14,000 points. The increase from yesterday was completely wiped out, and after hitting bottom, it rebounded sharply by over 6,000 points, returning to yesterday's starting point. Currently, the price is stabilizing and fluctuating around 96,000!

From a technical perspective, if Bitcoin cannot rebound and stay above 100,000 during the day after this pullback, the downward trend will intensify. Pay attention to the monthly line adjustments. If it can rebound and stay above 100,000, there will still be opportunities to push for new highs.

If you want to catch the rebound, you can wait for Bitcoin to come down to around 98,500 to buy in, set a stop loss at 97,800, and aim for a take profit near 100,000. If it rebounds and goes above 100,000, you can hold without taking profits for now. If it spikes and then retracts, you can take profits and exit.