Trump's inauguration took place yesterday and that's perhaps the one event that the markets have been waiting for to kick-start the year without distractions. On today's analysis we go through every January of Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) final year of its Bull Cycles and present to you what we will call from now on 'The March effect'.
As you can see, the price action coming to those January months is fairly similar between that last 4 Cycles. The price finds Support below its 1D MA100 (green trend-line), then breaks above it and with that as its new Support, it rises towards January where it starts the first Consolidation Phase. After a new Low near (or on) the 1D MA100, the market resumes the uptrend and rise towards March where again it starts a second Consolidation Phase.
As a result, January - March during the Bull Cycle's final year deliver this incredibly bullish sequence and we can claim that the phenomenon has already started as January 13 2025 was a close enough test for the 1D MA100. We are expecting a March peak around $130k.
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With Donald Trump’s inauguration now behind us, the markets can focus on the year ahead without distractions. Bitcoin’s price action is showing patterns that align with previous bull cycle trends, hinting that "The March Effect" may soon come into play.
Historical Bull Cycle Trends
Analyzing Bitcoin’s performance during the final year of its last four bull cycles reveals a remarkable consistency. In January, BTC typically finds support below the 1D MA100 (green trend line), breaks above it, and uses this level as a foundation for a new uptrend. This leads to a consolidation phase in January, followed by a test near or on the 1D MA100 before resuming its upward momentum toward March.
This sequence has historically marked a strong rally between January and March, characterized by two key consolidation phases. Notably, January 13, 2025, provided a near-perfect test of the 1D MA100, reinforcing the idea that the bullish trend is already underway.
Looking Ahead: March Peak Projection
Based on these recurring patterns, Bitcoin is projected to reach a peak of around $130,000 by March 2025. The price action so far aligns with historical trends, strengthening confidence in this bullish outlook.
What This Means for Traders
The period between January and March in Bitcoin’s final bull cycle year has consistently delivered strong gains. Traders should closely monitor key support and resistance levels, particularly the 1D MA100, as it plays a pivotal role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Conclusion: The March Effect is a phenomenon worth watching closely, as historical trends suggest a significant rally in Bitcoin’s price during this period. With market conditions aligning with past bull cycles, Bitcoin appears poised for an exciting start to the year.
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If you follow us for long, you know that we are very fond of using Fibonacci levels on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Cycles in order to project future tops and bottoms. Today is one of those analyses, in fact it is a strong variation of the following Inverse Head and Shoulders call:

As you can see, that was based on the condition that BTC would make a first hit and rejection on the 0.786 Fib retracement and then (as it happened on the previous Cycle) would go for a Cycle Top on the 2.0 Fibonacci, which gives us a $165k Target.
Since the 0.786 Fib never really offered the rejection of the previous 3 Cycles, we are introducing a variation model with new parameters.
We take the Fib extension from the bottom of each Cycle to the moment it made contact with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). As you can see by applying these conditions, every Cycle since BTC's inception has hit at least the 5.0 Fibonacci extension, with all Cycles in fact making a perfect Top there with the exception of 2017, which even exceeded it.
As a result, we can claim that this Cycle will have a minimum peak at $185000.
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In our early years as a channel we used to do a lot of analyses on the similarities of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and Gold (XAUUSD) and how Gold Cycles could help predict BTC's future prices. The latter is called the 'digital Gold' after all.
Going back to our roots, we present to you today our latest cross-cycle comparison between the two assets, which offers interesting insights. As you can see, the Cycles of those two aren't always aligned. The correlation tends to end when Gold peaks and when it bottoms.
As you can see since 2018, when Gold starts a Bull Cycle, Bitcoin tends to lag behind, still being on its Bear Cycle. Then the two converge and correlate until Gold peaks and start its Bear Cycle. That is still relatively early for Bitcoin's bullish trend, which remains on its Bull Cycle, in fact has around 1 year ahead of it. As a result, the two start to diverge again.
Based on this model, it appears that Gold's Bull Cycle has peaked and Bitcoin is entering (black circle) its last stage of its Bull Cycle, with a Parabolic Rally being prepared. Still not too late to buy the 'Digital Gold' on this Cycle.
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to repeat the 2014 - 2017 Cycle in great detail. So far besides the Bear Cycle Lower Highs that broke only after the Cycle bottom was priced, BTC has respected the replicated the two Accumulation phases above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is 2016 marked the last long-term buy opportunities before the market went on a Parabolic Rally in 2017.
As you can see, even the 1W RSI suggests that in relative terms we are in a pre-parabolic run pull-back similar to January 2017. There are high probabilities that this week is the one that forms the new bottom that will push the market to a continuous rally towards December 2025.
If the top is priced on the 7.0 Fibonacci extension from the Cycle bottom, as it did on December 2017, then we can expect to see at least $200k.
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$BTC
#BTCUSD
In our latest analysis, we emphasized that Bitcoin’s correction wouldn’t be complete without reaching $89K—a level we still consider inevitable. While BTCUSDT recently surged past $102K, sparking optimism in the market, the subsequent sharp drop was both expected and necessary for the correction to play out.
Why This Drop Was Anticipated
On the daily time frame, the recent price action aligns with the classic Elliott Wave theory. After reaching the wave 3 peak, Bitcoin entered corrective wave 4, which follows a zigzag ABC pattern.
Wave A: Initiated the downward correction.
Wave B: Retraced back to the 0.61 Fibonacci level, marking its conclusion.
Wave C: Currently forming, with a minimum target of $89K at the 0.38 Fibonacci level.
What’s Next?
At $89K, we anticipate a signal based on the Bullish Reversal Bar Strategy, which could confirm with high probability that the correction is over. Once this happens, the next target is set at $120K.
For those tracking this strategy, alerts from our indicator are automatically mirrored in our accounts. More details, including precise sniper entry points, can be found in our TradingView article.
Stay informed, and watch for confirmation signals as the market progresses.
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$BTC

Good afternoon, Binance Squad!
Let's talk Bitcoin!
We're looking at the weekly timeframe for BTCUSD, and the message is clear: Bitcoin is super bullish and ready to blast off! 🚀🚀🚀
Why are we so bullish?
* Breaking Barriers: Bitcoin has decisively broken above the 90,000 level and hit 100,000! The fact that it hasn't retested 90,000 since then is a powerful bullish signal.
* Higher Lows: Even during recent minor dips, Bitcoin has consistently formed higher lows, showing strong underlying support.
* No Selling Pressure: Sellers are getting absorbed, indicating a strong demand for Bitcoin.
What's Next?
The next target is to challenge the previous peak at 108,000.
Altcoin Mania!
When Bitcoin hits 100K, watch out! Altcoins go absolutely bananas! 🍌🍌🍌 We've seen them surge by 20-30% in just a few days when Bitcoin gains momentum.
Positive Market Vibes
The sentiment around Bitcoin is incredibly positive! People are talking about it everywhere:
* Crypto vs. Air: Some people even say they'd rather hold Bitcoin than breathe air!
* Angels and Deities: In my meditations, I've even heard deities chanting "Buy and Hold!"
* Institutional Adoption: Institutions are lining up to invest, and governments are seriously considering holding Bitcoin.
* Banks are Adapting: Banks are realizing that they can't ignore Crypto and are starting to embrace it.
The Future is Bright!
Bitcoin is here to stay. It's the future of money!
Welcome to 2025, Binance Squad!
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Namaste!
Do you think Bitcoin will hit 100K soon? Share your predictions below!