Detailed explanation of July non-farm payrolls, must read!!!
Today's non-farm payrolls report surprised the market. Only 114,000 new jobs were created in July, the lowest record in three and a half years, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, a three-year high, triggering the Sam's Rule recession indicator. Panic spread, and traders began to bet on a 50 basis point rate cut in September, and the rate cut is expected to exceed 110 basis points this year.

In terms of specific data, non-farm payrolls increased by 114,000 in July, far below the expected 175,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% last month to 4.3%. Wage growth slowed, with hourly wages rising by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, both lower than expected.

After the data was released, U.S. stock futures fell sharply in the short term, with Nasdaq futures falling by more than 2%, S&P 500 futures falling by 1.6%, and Dow futures falling by 1.2%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 19 basis points to 3.79% at one point, and the U.S. dollar index also fell.

Despite the strong performance of the labor market in the past two years, it now seems that the Fed is more likely to cut interest rates in September to prevent the labor market from slowing further. Clark Bellin, chief investment officer of Bellwether Wealth, said that the Fed must cut interest rates in September to prevent the labor market from slowing further.

The rise in unemployment has triggered the Sam rule, an indicator that has predicted recessions with 100% accuracy since 1970. But some analysts believe that this does not necessarily mean that the economy has entered a recession, but is just an early warning sign that the economy will weaken further.

In terms of employment structure, employment in healthcare, construction, transportation and warehousing continued to increase in July, but the information industry lost 20,000 jobs. Government employment growth slowed down, and other major industries did not change much.

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📊【U.S. employment data update and analysis】
🔹 Non-farm employment was revised downward: The total number of non-farm employment in June and July was revised downward by 86,000, from 179,000 to 118,000 in June and from 114,000 to 89,000 in July. This indicates that the pace of economic recovery may not be as fast as expected and companies are less willing to recruit.

🔹 August employment data: The seasonally adjusted non-agricultural employment population in August was 142,000. Although it was lower than the expected 160,000, it was significantly higher than the previous value of 89,000. This shows that the job market is still recovering, and the market has responded positively to this, indicating that investors are optimistic about the economic outlook.

🔹 Changes in unemployment rate: The unemployment rate was 4.2% in August, in line with expectations, and the previous value was 4.3%. Although the unemployment rate fell slightly, the performance of the overall job market still needs to be watched.

comprehensive analysis
Although August's non-farm payrolls data fell short of expectations, the significant improvement from the previous value satisfied the market, reflecting the resilience of the economic recovery. A pick-up in business hiring could boost consumer confidence and boost economic growth.

trading strategy
The non-agricultural data is bullish. It is recommended to buy at the current price of 56,400 and set the stop loss at 55,000.

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♣️Hi everyone, I'm A10JQK. Today I'll bring you the latest news on US employment data and Fed policy trends.

🃏On October 4, the US Department of Labor released its September employment report, which showed that job growth accelerated, which may reduce the possibility of the Fed's sharp interest rate cuts at the remaining two meetings this year.

♠️Specific data showed that non-farm payrolls increased by 254,000 in September, far exceeding expectations. In addition, the August data was revised to show an increase of 159,000, which was also higher than the previously announced figures.

♥️Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently refuted investors' expectations of another 50 basis point rate cut in November. He said, "This committee does not feel that it is in a hurry to cut interest rates quickly."

♦️These data and remarks suggest that the Fed may continue to be cautious despite market expectations of rate cuts. Strong employment data means that the economy remains resilient, which may prevent the Fed from rushing to cut interest rates until inflation is fully under control.

For the cryptocurrency market, the Fed's policy direction often has an important impact. If interest rates remain high, it may continue to suppress the attractiveness of risky assets. Investors need to pay close attention to future economic data and speeches by Fed officials to assess potential policy changes.

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🚀 With the employment data coming this week, the crypto market is keeping a close eye on the expectations of rate cuts!

📅　This week's economic events are as follows:

- Monday is a holiday in the United States, and the U.S. stock market is closed for one day on Labor Day.

- On Tuesday, we will see the August ISM Manufacturing PMI report, which is an important data for measuring the business conditions of the manufacturing industry.

- On Wednesday and Thursday, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data, non-farm payrolls data, and initial unemployment claims data will be released one after another.

- On Friday, more employment data will be released, which are important references for the Federal Reserve to make decisions.

📊Last weekend, the cryptocurrency market weakened, with the total market value falling by $75 billion. As of Monday this week, the market continued to fall, with Bitcoin falling by more than 2%.

📊 Although the U.S. economic calendar this week is not long, the highlight is the employment data, which may have a significant impact on the crypto market. At the same time, crypto assets have been falling recently, in sharp contrast to the rise in the technology stock market.

📈 Last week's report showed that the economy remains stable, consumer spending is resilient, and inflation is slowly cooling. This makes many people feel that the Fed may ease monetary policy, and investors are also looking forward to the Fed's interest rate cut this month.

💼Last week, Fed Chairman Powell pointed out that the central bank is reluctant to see the labor market continue to cool, which makes the upcoming August non-farm payrolls data particularly critical. If the data is weak, it may increase the chances of a 50 basis point rate cut; if the data is strong, it may rule out the possibility of a large rate cut.

🗣️ In this regard, Investec economist Lottie Gosling said that although Powell did not specify whether there would be a 50 basis point rate cut in September, the significant deterioration in the labor market may prompt the Federal Open Market Committee to adopt a more active easing policy.

👉 In theory, if the Fed does cut interest rates in September, it will be good for cryptocurrencies. Therefore, this week's employment data may directly affect market volatility.

💬 What do you think of the impact of this week's employment data on the crypto market? Do you think the rate cut on September 18 will be the expected 50 basis points, or will there be more room for a rate cut?See you in the comments section!

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Non-agricultural data analysis report! ! ! The top priority! ! !
Today's non-agricultural employment report surprised the market. Only 114,000 new jobs were created in July, the lowest record in three and a half years, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, a three-year high, triggering the Sam's Rule recession indicator. Panic spread, and traders bet on a 50 basis point rate cut in September, and the rate cut is expected to exceed 110 basis points this year.

The employment data was lower than expected, causing the stock market to fall. Investors may turn to cryptocurrencies for risk aversion, and prices may rise in the short term.

As market uncertainty increases and risks in the traditional financial system rise, more investors may turn to DeFi platforms to seek high returns and diversify risks.

As "digital gold", Bitcoin may attract more investors and prices may rise when economic uncertainty increases. The demand for stablecoins will also increase, and investors will turn to stablecoins to avoid risks. Altcoin market volatility may increase, and funds will shift from high-risk Altcoins to Bitcoin and stablecoins.

The Fed cut interest rates, the US dollar liquidity increased, and some funds may flow into the cryptocurrency market, driving prices up. In a low-interest environment, investors may be more willing to invest in high-return crypto assets.

Summary: Non-farm payroll data and changes in economic policy expectations have a multi-faceted impact on the cryptocurrency market, including price fluctuations, market sentiment, liquidity, and trading volume. Investors need to pay close attention to dynamics and adjust strategies flexibly.

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