At this point, it doesn’t matter if BTC reaches $98k, $99k, or if it goes above $100k. The local top could occur at any moment, and this movement could be fully retraced. Some of the reasons why I'm still being cautious:
-Sentiment is extremely bullish here. Retail is piling in massively, aping into memecoins. The memecoin rally feels overextended, and that's unhealthy. A strong correction is overdue, and it will likely affect the entire market.
-Trump is still not in power. The Democrats are still governing the country, and despite saying the transfer of power would be ''smooth and in a peaceful way'', they are already trying to provoke a big war. In my view, this is a desperate attempt to apply the martial law or/and leave Trump in a complicated position. By allowing and helping Ukraine to send long distance missiles into Russian territory, the situation is escalating. I don't want this to happen. Most people don't want this to happen. But sadly, it's not something we can control, because there are real psychopaths in the elite circles of control. We can just pray and adapt.
-Also, the U.S. government holds 208,109 BTC (currently $20.15B). They recently got approval to sell the Silk Road Bitcoin, likely through auctions or gradual sales. Honestly, it wouldn’t be surprising if they timed it to tank BTC prices and make the next administration look bad—or just to make sure they don’t leave those BTC behind for them to use.
-The dollar has been showing strength while BTC was pumping, forming a divergence.
-Many altcoins are showing weakness and testing major levels as resistance. It's mostly a BTC and memecoins run, which is never a good sign. Not ruling out a few final altcoins pumps, but if my thesis is right, they could dump 60-80% over the next few weeks.
The analysis is more complex than this.. I don't see this as a wasted opportunity or a 'missed train'. Sometimes, it's better to let trains pass and wait for the one that will safely take you where you truly want to go.
Stay safe.
