In the last three weeks, Bitcoin has undergone a correction of approximately 15%, dropping from the $70k range to the $60k range.
With the more significant correction yesterday, signs of a possible local bottom have emerged:
Futures Market: Open Interest has declined by about $3 billion in the past three weeks, with a predominance of long liquidations. The funding rates for perpetual contracts have dropped to near zero, indicating a greater balance between buyers and sellers, creating a healthier and less overly optimistic price structure.
Short-Term Holders: The price has crossed the realized price of short-term holders (STHs), which was at $62.6k. Currently, STHs are experiencing slightly negative average profitability, a point that has historically acted as support for local corrections during uptrends.
A significant factor influencing price action in recent months has been U.S. macroeconomic data, given the uncertainty about the future of American monetary policy, which affects investors' risk appetite. On Thursday, we will have GDP and initial jobless claims data, and on Friday, inflation data (PCE), which are expected to dictate market sentiment in the short term. However, the current structure suggests a possible local bottom.
Written by Gustavo Faria