The Bitcoin halving took place on April 20, 2024, approximately two months ago. Since then, the price of $BTC has fluctuated, first dropping, then rising, and now returning to its initial level. For short and medium-term investors, this period can feel long, especially given the influx of positive news that reinforces Bitcoin's investment potential.
The approval of ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) is one such positive development. These ETFs allow traditional investors to own Bitcoin through conventional financial institutions without having to use cryptocurrency exchanges. Despite this advancement and the halving, it is surprising to see prices stagnate.
Currently, the daily RSI (Relative Strength Index) for BTC is near 0, and we are on a weekly support zone. This situation is causing impatience among some investors, who are redirecting their assets to other sources of income, such as the stock market.
Major players like MicroStrategy have bought hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Bitcoin at prices higher than today's. Although they are holding onto their bitcoins, the question remains: why isn’t the price increasing?
American inflation and Fed policies alone cannot explain this stagnation. The correlation between US economic announcements and Bitcoin's value is well known. Despite the good news, like the growing acceptance of ETFs, the lack of spectacular price movements could disinterest small investors, contributing to the market's stagnation.
Historically, in previous halving cycles, bull runs (significant price increases) began on average about 100 days after the halving, or a little over three months. Currently, two months have passed since the last halving without significant price movement in Bitcoin. However, altcoins (alternative cryptocurrencies) have seen spectacular movements, profitable for some investors but disappointing for others who expected a more generalized market rise.
The approval of ETFs could have opened new opportunities for altcoins, but instead, we are seeing a return to more solid fundamentals. Major cryptocurrencies like $AVAX and Solana $SOL saw significant gains before April but have declined since the halving, as have meme coins (cryptocurrencies without intrinsic value), which have often been wiped off the market.
Despite these fluctuations and current uncertainty, I remain convinced that the true start of the bull run for BTC could begin between August and September. Currently, Bitcoin seems to be following a technical pattern of range trading (oscillation within a price range) for about 100 days after the halving, before starting a significant rise.