📰May CPI Inflation Expectations:

1. Kalshi: 3.4%

2. Goldman Sachs: 3.4%

3. Wells Fargo: 3.4%

4. Morgan Stanley: 3.4%

5. FactSet Consensus: 3.4%

6. Bank of America: 3.4%

7. Barclays: 3.4%

8. Citi: 3.4%

9. TD Securities: 3.3%

Just about everyone is expecting 3.4% CPI inflation, in-line with April's inflation numbers.

However, there is a 17% chance that inflation comes in above 3.4%, according to prediction markets, marking another jump in inflation.

What happens if inflation rises to 3.5%+?

If inflation rises again in the May CPI numbers, the Fed is going to be in a difficult spot.