1. Attention market vs entry
2. Tools to find your entry
3. Bitcoin meme token example (one I'm buying now)
4. Other hype niches and my thoughts
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1. Attention market vs entry
The problem with using Twitter as an alpha source is that you'll be bombarded by what is currently hot.
It’s hard to make money on what is currently hot, and if you do, it should likely be a short-term hype flip. Most people buy the hottest things because of shills telling them why it’s amazing. Regardless of whether the shills make sense, attention and hype aren’t consistently sustainable.
Something all over Twitter as the next big thing is often a sign of you buying the top, likely capitulating when it’s 50% down.
> Trust me there's more than often a direct correlation between you running into a token on Twitter and the pico attention tops.
Rather than betting on what is hot now, try to find out what will be hot and going up next, or even simply ‘later’ this cycle.
Sometimes something is hot now, and you think it’ll go up later as well, but it could still be the attention top while it’s all over Twitter.
2. Tools to find your entry
This is a chart I often use for my cycle positioning. But it appears on any time frame. The market constantly, on any time frame, even within a bigger uptrend, moves in roughly these types of cycle structures.
If you see prices going up parabolically and everyone talks about it on Twitter, likely, we are currently in phase 1 of this cycle. And again: this can be on a very low time frame.
What I usually do is:
- Wait for the talks to die out
- Wait for the price to form a steep downtrend
- Wait for prices to reach the original point of going parabolic, roughly, don't need to get there always
- Wait for prices to transition from a steep downtrend into a more ranging environment
- If the sentiment is "back to zero," that is a bonus
You can now either buy the equal lows in the range of what we hope is stage 3 or the reclaim of the range low and stage 4, which is the initial higher high again.
$WIF initial attention cycle example; you can spot the cycle stages.
3. Bitcoin meme token example (one I'm buying now)
For example, around the Bitcoin halving and Runes launch, some Bitcoin meme tokens were hyped by big accounts, spreading all over Twitter and reaching a pico attention top. Now, with ETHBTC strength and the ETH ETF, Ethereum memes are grabbing attention, while Bitcoin memes feel dead.
However, if you believe in the Bitcoin ecosystem, the thesis of undervalued leading memes remains strong. People are naturally drawn to green candles over red ones.
Figure out what makes sense to you and buy when attention is low, not when everyone is talking about it. Even if you think the market cap is undervalued during peak attention, it will likely retrace first. Gradually get exposure instead of buying all at once. For example, I noticed $PUPS when prices shot up from 40 to 110, but I started buying after it retraced to 20-35 and again buying now at 12. Buy gradually, and not all at once.
- I still think the Bitcoin eco will do well.
- Memes are a big part of this cycle.
- I expect a few big memes in the Bitcoin eco.
- Pups cult is still alive.
Pups sentiment is horrible.
I still think Ethereum will rise and attract attention for longer, while my Bitcoin memes feel dead. But I buy when nobody cares and sell when everyone talks about it.
4. Other hype niches
> Ethereum memes: doing well right now after the ETF and ETHBTC bottom. I still think ETHBTC has a lot of upside, and the market is meh; so I still think this is a nice bet for the coming months.
$PEPE, $FLOKI, $DOGE for example.
4. Other hype niches
> Ethereum memes: doing well right now after the ETF and ETHBTC bottom. I still think ETHBTC has a lot of upside, and the market is meh; so I still think this is a nice bet for the coming months.
$PEPE, $FLOKI, $DOGE for example.
> SOL memes: Doing meh now after the ETH ETF, ETHBTC bottom, and ETHSOL strength. Do I think there is more downside for them, or more room to be outperformed; yes. Do I think SOL will go higher later this cycle: yes.
They might be a great buy soon; $BONK on top of my list.
> Bitcoin memes: Already covered this, but again in short: the market has been meh, Solana and Ethereum took the attention while Bitcoin memes topped with the peak attention aroundthe halving and Runes launch. I think they are a great accumulation buy now, but some patience is needed.
Main point of this post:
- These are not shills: figure out what coins and thesis do make sense to you.
- Understand peak attention pico tops, even if the thesis still stands.
- Understand the direct correlation between you finding out about a token and the peak attention pico top
- Understand that it's not 'bad luck' that the coins you buy go down, and the ones you did not buy go up.
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