According to Grayscale:

It's important to understand that a Bitcoin price increase post-halving is not guaranteed. Given the highly anticipated nature of these events, if a price surge were a certainty, rational investors would likely buy in advance, driving up the price before the halving occurs.

This brings into question frameworks like the Stock-to-Flow model. While it creates visually appealing charts by correlating scarcity with price increases, the model overlooks the fact that this scarcity is not only predictable but also widely known in advance.

This is corroborated by looking at other cryptocurrencies with #similar halving mechanisms, such as Litecoin, which has not consistently seen price appreciation post-halving. This suggests that while scarcity does sometimes influence price, other factors also play a role.

$BTC $ETH #Megadrop #bitcoinhalving #Token2049 #BullorBear #Memecoins