According to CryptoPotato, Andrew Kang, the founder of Mechanism Capital, has forecasted that over 98% of altcoins have already reached their peak for the current cycle. He suggested that only a handful of coins might see new highs in late 2024 to early 2025, with meme coins likely to constitute most of the coins with the potential to reach new highs.
Kang's recent comments build on a statement he made about a week ago, where he noted that Bitcoin had led the crypto market to a turning point. This, he said, follows prolonged periods of trading behaviours that become ingrained and continuously rewarded. Kang pointed out a common mistake in the crypto markets: buying too early when the trend shifts from upward to downward. He stressed that corrections following significant market structure breaks tend to be deeper and longer than expected.
In response to a user's interpretation of his comments as suggesting that the current cycle is over and there is no point in buying any time soon, Kang clarified, 'I believe 98%+ of altcoins topped for the cycle except for maybe a handful of coins that may make some new highs in Q4 2024/Q1 2025.' When asked about how meme coins fit into his outlook, Kang said, 'Memes probably constitute a majority of the coins that have a chance of making new highs. Hundreds of thousands of meme coins exist, so you need to be quite selective.'
The crypto industry is closely monitoring the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a decision on the launch of spot Ethereum ETF trading. Analysts and market observers are hopeful that the SEC’s decision, expected within the next two weeks, could trigger a new rally for ETH. Kang also suggests that Bitcoin is transitioning into a 'supercycle asset,' exhibiting characteristics from previous cycles while increasingly behaving like a mature macro asset.