The Bitcoin price has faced significant corrections since March, driven primarily by large-scale sell-offs from whales and massive token unlocks flooding the total market supply of altcoins.
According to a recent 10x Research report, these factors have effectively offset “bullish flows” from stablecoins, spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and “a rise in futures leverage.” The report states:
“While it’s unfortunate that early token holders and Whales cashing out have kept prices range-bound since March, the outlook remains positive.”
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, explained to Cointelegraph what he believes could have the biggest impact on BTC in the next six to 12 months:
“A pick up in US economic growth while the Fed keeps cutting due to lower inflation and US corporate profits remain strong.”Source: 10x Research
Whale sell-off market corrections
The report highlights that whale activity has been a critical driver of BTC performance throughout the year. Whales, or holders with over 1,000 BTC, heavily influenced the market between April and August.
“As we approached the February/March 2024 bull market peak, we’ve observed significant inflows from Whales [...] into exchanges, signaling their intent to sell,” the report stated.
The 10x Research report explained that the activity of these heavy hitters suggested that they were “actively cashing out,” contributing to BTC’s struggle to gain upward momentum.
Token unlocks building supply pressures
In addition to whale sell-offs, token unlocks have intensified selling pressure, with the report noting that $35 billion in token unlocks have occurred since March.
The rush of newly available tokens directly increased supply, contributing to the stagnant BTC price as October alone saw “$3.9 billion in token unlocks,” up sharply from $1.9 billion in September.
“However, November unlocks are expected to be significantly lower.”
Chart depicting the token unlocks since November 2023. Source: 10x Research
Institutional inflows stabilize crypto market
Despite the influx of new tokens and whales cashing out, institutional inflows from ETFs, stablecoins and futures markets have assisted in stabilizing the market.
Although effectively neutralized by selling pressure, the strong inflows from “stablecoins, Bitcoin Spot ETFs and increased futures leverage” have prevented steeper price declines.
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