Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin dropped from nearly $66,000 to around $63,000, causing some to fear a possible new crash.
Instead, last night it recorded a small rebound, which brought it back close to $64,000.
But is a collapse still possible?
To answer this question, it is necessary to analyze especially the trend of the last few days.
The decline of yesterday
Yesterday the trend of the price of Bitcoin was negatively affected by two factors.
The first, contingent, was the collapse of the Tokyo stock exchange.
In fact, the Nikkei index in a single session lost 4.7%, and this loss was accumulated largely in the early hours of reopening after the weekend.
The fact is that in Japan, internal elections of the ruling party were held after the resignation of Prime Minister Kishida. The outcome of the elections did not please the markets, and the reaction upon reopening after the weekend was very negative.
The price of Bitcoin has followed this decline, dropping by 4%, but another factor also influenced its decline.
Yesterday was September 30th, and with yesterday not only the month but also the quarter, the third of 2024, ended. Often during the closing days of the month, and particularly the quarter, declines occur in the markets, so much so that after the 4% drop during the night, the price of Bitcoin lost another 0.5% during the rest of the day.
The rebound
Today, however, the Tokyo stock exchange is showing a good rebound, even though the +1.9% is not even enough to recover half of yesterday’s losses.
It is worth noting that right at the opening in rise of the Tokyo stock exchange, the price of Bitcoin also started a small rebound that brought it back close to the 64,000$ mark.
Moreover, today is the first of October, so the second factor that caused it to drop yesterday is also missing.
To tell the truth, by expanding the analysis to the previous days, it can be seen that after the rise on Thursday, September 26 above $64,000, a period of lateralization between $62,000 and $66,000 seems to have begun.
This lateralization could last for more than a week, in theory, because until October 12th no significant volatility is expected.
It should be noted, however, that in the event of unforeseen circumstances, this forecast could prove to be incorrect, and unforeseen circumstances by definition are not predictable. Therefore, at this moment it is impossible to predict whether they will occur or not.
The potential collapse of the Bitcoin price
The situation therefore at this moment seems quite calm, also because for many months, from the end of March until the end of June, the price of Bitcoin has moved sideways within a much wider range, between $57,000 and $72,000.
The key point should be what will happen on October 12, when greater volatility is expected.
Moreover, October 12th will be a Saturday, so traditional exchanges will be closed for the weekend and all the volatility will be concentrated only on the crypto markets.
Even though it is not possible to know in advance if the volatility will be bull or bear, in the coming days signals may appear that could give an idea of the direction with a slight advance.
It should also be remembered that in the coming days the quarterly reports of the large companies listed on the stock exchange will begin to arrive, and this could shake up the traditional markets a bit.
In light of all this, it is not possible to exclude either that on October 12 the volatility is bearish, or that this could cause a crash.
The whales could trigger the collapse of the price of Bitcoin
There is in fact at least one scenario in which a potential downward volatility could trigger a real collapse.
It should not be forgotten that there are whales capable, at certain times, of manipulating the crypto markets, or in any case significantly impacting the price of Bitcoin, especially if they are large speculators rather than long-term investors.
Many are expecting the start of a bullrun in the second half of October, and the big speculators certainly have not yet started to price in this eventuality, as it is definitely still too early for them.
The right day could very well be October 12, but given the short-term horizon of the speculators, it is possible to imagine that, if they were able to, they might decide to lower the price of BTC a bit before buying it.
And so if the volatility will be downward (which is still absolutely not a given), one can expect that someone will try to push Bitcoin down as much as possible in order to buy it at an even lower price, waiting for the possible start of the bullrun.
At this moment, the supports seem to be placed at $60,000, at $57,000, but also at $55,000. If it should remain above these figures, the trend would not differ from that of recent times; otherwise, if it should fall below, something important could be changed.
It must be made clear, however, that this is only a theoretical possibility, because no one really knows how likely such a scenario truly is.
