Cardano (ADA) Price Prediction For Oct. 2024: Can ADA Defy History?

NOIDA (CoinChapter.com) — Cardano (ADA) price could be gearing for a potentially bullish Oct. 2024 as traders turned bullish. An optimistic futures market supplements the positive market sentiment. Adding to the outlook, Jerome Powell’s recent comments on possible interest rate cuts have fueled broader market expectations of improved liquidity.

Historically, October has been a mixed month for Cardano (ADA), showing a tendency toward bearish sentiment. ADA closed the month with a red candle in 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2022, indicating consistent downward price pressure during these years.

ADA price action in October. Source: Tradingview

However, there were exceptions: in 2019 and 2023, ADA painted green candles, reflecting upward movement and a more positive market sentiment. This pattern suggests that while October has often been challenging for ADA, occasional bullish momentum can break through during the month, as seen in 2019 and 2023.

The historical performance could inform traders’ expectations for October 2024, keeping bullish and bearish possibilities in mind.

Impact of Powell’s Speech and ADA Market Dynamics

Jerome Powell’s recent statement indicated that the Federal Reserve is committed to cutting interest rates but left the timeline ambiguous. The Fed Chair emphasized that the U.S. economy is still “in solid shape,” yet the major U.S. indexes experienced volatility.

The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all dipped sharply after his speech but recovered quickly, reflecting market uncertainty about the Fed’s long-term monetary policy. For ADA, Powell’s stance could further drive the market’s recalibration as traders assess future liquidity conditions.

ADA OI-weighted funding rate. Source: Coinglass

The consistent bullish funding rate suggests that traders expect ADA to perform well, potentially anticipating a more dovish Federal Reserve stance over the next few months. The environment aligns with a positive ADA price prediction for Oct. 2024, as long-term traders maintain bullish positions.

Since mid-Sept. 2024, ADA futures have maintained a positive funding rate, despite the Cardano token’s price consolidation between $0.36 and $0.39. Powell’s emphasis on a solid economic foundation and expectations of future rate cuts support a cautiously bullish ADA price prediction for October.

However, market sentiment remains sensitive to Federal Reserve announcements and broader macroeconomic conditions. Moreover, the upcoming Oct. 2 token unlock event poses a potential bearish risk.

ADA upcoming token unlock.

With 18.53M ADA slated for release—representing 0.05% of the circulating supply—there’s a possibility of selling pressure from recipients. The influx of new supply could stifle the bullish momentum despite the positive macro signals.

As a result, the token unlock event could weigh ADA’s price action, tempering some optimism surrounding ADA price predictions for October. Yet, there is a possibility that ADA price factors in the token unlock event and then continues to rally since the supply shock is set to hit early in the month.

Bullish Setup Could Help ADA Price Prediction

Another bullish cue that could favor the ADA USD pair’s price action is the Cardano token forming a bullish setup called the ‘falling wedge.‘

ADAUSD pair has formed a bullish setup with an 184% upside target.

Two converging downward trendlines that connect lower highs and lower lows form the falling wedge, a bullish reversal. The narrowing structure shows that, despite the ongoing downtrend, the bearish momentum is gradually weakening, often preceding an upward breakout.

The key feature of a falling wedge is that the slope of the lower trendline is steeper than that of the upper trendline, indicating that selling pressure is dissipating. When the breakout occurs—typically upward—it signals buyers taking control.

To estimate the potential price target after a breakout, traders measure the vertical distance between the widest points of the wedge and project that range from the breakout point upwards. Increased trading volume during the breakout confirms the strength of the reversal, reinforcing market confidence and the likelihood of success.

According to technical analysis rules, the ADA USD conversion rate might rally over 184% from its current level to reach the pattern’s projected target of around $1.08.

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