The crypto market is starting the close week of September on a down note. The cumulative market value has dropped 2% with Bitcoin hovering around $64,500 at press time.
The muted market performance comes as traders await key economic data and a speech from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Crypto market down 2% on Monday
The global crypto market cap is down 2% on Monday and has a market capitalization of $2.3 trillion. Bitcoin is maintaining a muted hourly performance and seems to be trading in near the $64,500 level at press time. The Monday market blues seems to have erupted ahead of the publication of major US economic data and Powellâs speech.
Fed chair Jerome Powell will speak today and is expected to discuss the policy outlook after the central bank deducted rates by 0.50%. What Powell says will be in focus, as economists believe a mistake by the Federal Reserve can cost the economy. According to a new survey cited by Reuters, 39% of economists said wrongly applying the interest rate tool against inflation is the top economic risk.
Bitcoin can end the year on a positive note despite economic woes
The crypto market is also lulled ahead of upcoming reports of S&P Global US manufacturing PMI and September ISM Manufacturing. The former is a monthly survey-based index and acts as a performance meter for the manufacturing sector. The latter is produced by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and also explains any contraction or expansion in the manufacturing sector. Jobs data is another crucial economic indicator to watch out for this week as it majorly impacts the next monetary policy decision to be taken by the Fed in November.
Key Events This Week:
1. Fed Chair Powell Speaks â Monday
2. September ISM Manufacturing data â Tuesday
3. JOLTs Jobs data â Tuesday
4. ADP Nonfarm Employment data â Wednesday
5. October OPEC Meeting â Wednesday
6. Initial Jobless Claims â Thursday
7. September Jobs ReportâŠ
â The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 29, 2024
Data on US spending also explained the overall health of the economy. For August, consumer spending rose moderately but analysts see more potential rate cuts in Q4. Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings predicts that the real GDP growth for the US is at 2.7% in 2024. The forecast is lower at 1.8% for 2025. The company continues to see a 25% probability of a US recession in the next 12 months.
Despite the economic woes and the crypto marketâs muted performance on Monday, the year might end on a bull note for Bitcoin. The crypto is closing in September with monthly gains of around 8%. According to an analysis by Ali Martinez, only 4 September months since 2013 ended with gains. Historically, it also signified a positive Q4 on the calendar, with increasing monthly returns.
This means, despite the uncertainty due to economic and election results, a bullish close to 2024 doesnât seem unlikely.
