The decentralized prediction platform Polymarket saw the bet for the next United States president cross $1 billion.
The wager is a composite of numerous people Polymarket betters believe will become the next president. The most likely candidate is Vice President Kamala Harris with a prediction of 51% chance of winning and a nearly $154 million bet placed. Next up is Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, amassing around $163 million wager for a 48% chance of winning the election, according to the platform.
However, Polymarket users placed money on other outcomes. They placed $65 million on another Republican candidate winning, though that has a 1% chance of success, in addition to low odds of another Democratic candidate, Michelle Obama, Nikki Haley, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and others nabbing the presidency. In total, the prediction market for the winner of the U.S. presidential election hit $1,000,122,251 as of Sept. 24.
Predictions based on the Nov. 5 election dominate Polymarket. The second and third largest prediction markets deal with the winner of the popular vote, amassing a $225 million bet favoring Kamala Harris, and which state will be the tipping point for the 2024 presidential election, with Pennsylvania leading an overall $2.3 million wager.
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The election helped Polymarket surge in popularity this year, with the platform raising $45 million in May and considering a token launch aiming to garner an additional $50 million, The Block previously reported.
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