Original title: "Will the market reverse? Check out 7 Bitcoin bottom-picking indicators"
Original author: Viee, Biteye
What stage is the market in? Is the market bullish or bearish? Can I still bottom-pick? It's falling to panic, is the bull market still there?
In order to better analyze the current trend, Biteye has sorted out 7 BTC bottom-picking indicators.
Help you judge market sentiment and currency price fluctuations from multiple angles!
01 Ahr999 Index
· Current value: 0.6, in the fixed investment range
· Interpretation: The indicator implies the rate of return of short-term fixed investment in Bitcoin and the deviation of Bitcoin price from expected valuation.
0.45 bottom line, 1.2 fixed investment line
· When the AHR999 index is < 0.45, the indicator will recommend bottom-fishing
· When the AHR999 index is between 0.45-1.2, the indicator will recommend buying fixed investment
· When the AHR999 index >1.2, the coin price is already relatively high and is not suitable for operation
Trend review: Since mid-April, the index has been fluctuating around 1.2, and has completely fallen below 1.2 since June, entering the fixed investment range. In the past three months, it has been approaching the bottom line of 0.45.
02 Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart
· Current value: In the colder market range, suitable for buying
· Interpretation: Use the logarithmic growth curve to predict the potential future price direction of Bitcoin. There are 10 color bands in total. The warmer colors on the top show that the market is overheated, which is a better selling point; the colder colors indicate that the market sentiment is low, which is a better buying point.
· Trend review: Since the beginning of this year, the price of Bitcoin has basically been in the colder color range. The market is not yet overheated, and the recent price is suitable for buying.
03 Relative Strength Index
· Current value: 58.41, not yet in the bottom-picking range
· Interpretation: The RSI indicator determines whether the recent trend is bullish or bearish by calculating price changes over a period of time. The score is evaluated relative to the previous 12 months.
A high RSI means that the price movement is very positive relative to the previous 12 months
A low RSI means that the price movement is very negative relative to the previous 12 months
RSI >70: Bitcoin is overbought and may fall soon, so you can sell
RSI< 30: Bitcoin is oversold and may reverse and rise, so you can buy at the bottom
· Trend Review: Judging from historical prices, the RSI indicator has not been lower than 30. When referring to this indicator, you can judge that the closer to 30, the more oversold, or the closer to 70, the more overbought.
04 2-Year MA Multiplier
· Current value: BTC 57,604 US dollars, in the price neutral range
Two-year moving average (2YMA): 38,018
Two-year moving average multiplied by five (2YMA x5): 190,092
· Interpretation: The 2 Year Moving Average (green line) and the 5-fold product of the moving average (red line) are used to highlight the periods when buying and selling Bitcoin will produce huge returns.
Price < 2YMA (green line): Price is at a historical low, buy at the bottom
Price > 2YMA x5 (red line): Price is at a historical high, sell at the top
If the price is between the moving averages, it is in a neutral position
· Trend review: It is currently in a neutral range, and it is not time to completely buy at the bottom. From May 22 to October 23, the indicator was in the bottom-fishing range.
05 Net-Unrealized-Profit-Loss
· Current value: 45.33%, not the best buying range
· Interpretation: Assess market sentiment by calculating the unrealized profits or losses of all investors holding Bitcoin.
NUPL < 0: Extreme fear of market losses, buy at the bottom
NUPL 0-0.25: Micro-profit zone, also suitable for buying
NUPL 0.25-0.5: Bull-bear conversion, slowly entering the bull market
NUPL 0.5-0.75: Strong bullish sentiment
NUPL 0.75-1: Extreme greed, consider escaping the top
In other words, the more NUPL deviates from 0, the closer the market trend is to the bottom or top.
· Trend review: Since January 23, the market has been out of the loss range and gradually profitable. From February to July this year, RSI rained 0.5, and the bullish sentiment was strong. However, in the past two months, RSI fell to the 0.25-0.5 range, and market sentiment also fell.
06 Realized HODL Ratio
· Current value: 2689.22, neutral range
· Interpretation: By comparing the number of bitcoins in different holding periods, such as the number of UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) in the short term (within 1 month) and the long term (more than 1 year), the market activity and speculation are measured. A higher value means that there are many short-term holders and the market is highly speculative; a lower value means that the proportion of long-term holders is high and the market is relatively stable.
When approaching the red area, the market is overheated and suitable for profit taking
When approaching the green area, the coin price is cold and suitable for bottom-fishing
· Trend review: Since January 23, RHODL Ratio has gradually moved out of the green area and shown an upward trend. In the past few months, it has been in a volatile downward trend, reflecting that the market heat has subsided, but it has not yet completely entered the cooling stage.
07 MVRV indicator (Market Value to Realized Value Ratio)
· Current value: 1.83, the market has not entered the bottom range
· Interpretation: MVRV is a relative indicator, which is the ratio of the circulating market value (Market Cap, MV) and the realized market value (Realized Cap, RV), that is, the total market value of BTC/the market value calculated by the last activity price of BTC, representing the profitability of BTC holders.
MVRV > 3.5, the market has entered the top, the holders have made a lot of profit, and will tend to sell
MVRV < 1, the market has reached the bottom, most holders are in a loss state, the willingness to hold is greater than the willingness to sell, and the probability of price increase increases.
· Trend review: In the past three or four months, this indicator has been in a downward trend, and the holders' profits have gradually decreased. The closer to the bottom range, the easier it is for the market to rebound.
Risk warning: The above is only for information sharing, not investment advice. Readers are requested to comply with local laws and regulations.
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