Ok hear me out.
- The yield curve is still negative, but it's trending upwards. The JPY carry trade unwind is almost complete.
- High-grade corporate yield is on the rise.
- Recession fears are not entirely dead but are abating. CPI inflation has cooled off. All eyes are on the labor market.
- The fixed income market is the most informed on recessionary vs. stimulatory market conditions, and this market looks cautiously optimistic.
- Generally speaking, you don't want to be bullish when the market is wildly exuberant.
- Therefore, risk assets are in accumulation territory.
Tough to articulate bearishness right now.
DYOR NFA