Wall Street’s Bernstein dropped a bombshell for the crypto community today. According to them, if Donald Trump wins the U.S. elections in November, it’s going to be a big win for crypto.
But if Kamala Harris takes the Oval, you might want to brace yourself because things could get rough for Bitcoin and the rest of the market.
Bitcoin has been stumbling recently, and it’s no coincidence. As the odds on Polymarket started to favor Kamala, Bitcoin began to wobble. Sure we got Kazuo Ueda and the Bank of Japan to thank for that too, but they didn’t do it alone.
Bernstein thinks Bitcoin is going to stay in this shaky spot until there’s a clearer picture of who’s going to win in November.
Bitcoin feeling the heat as Kamala leads
The crypto market is stuck in a holding pattern, with Bitcoin unable to gain any solid ground. Bernstein’s team told us that this is likely to continue until the election results start to become more certain.
On the Republican side, Trump’s supporters aren’t staying quiet. They’re calling this the “honeymoon phase” and are convinced that Polymarket odds are being manipulated.
But despite the noise, the numbers are hard to ignore. Kamala is now leading in the prediction markets, and that’s putting pressure on Bitcoin.
Trump’s camp, on the other hand, has been pretty loud about their support for crypto. They’re even teasing the idea of a national Bitcoin reserve, which has got crypto enthusiasts paying attention.
Trump loses ground, shuns crypto
As of Monday, Kamala shares on Polymarket are trading at 52 cents. That means the market is betting on her having a 52% chance of winning the presidency. Trump shares, meanwhile, are trading at 45 cents.
This is a huge change from just a month ago. Back then, Trump’s odds were sitting at a comfortable 72%. But that was before Joe Biden dropped out and endorsed Kamala.
Since then, Kamala has been on the rise, both in the polls and in the betting markets. The mainstream polls are also showing a tighter race.
According to Real Clear Polling’s average, Kamala only has a 0.5 percentage point lead. But those numbers don’t tell the full story.
Some polls still show Trump ahead, but just by a hair. Kamala’s rise to the top of the Democratic ticket has been fueled by positive press coverage and celebrity endorsements.
Last night, Elon Musk and Donald Trump recently had a two-hour chat on Twitter, and they didn’t mention Bitcoin or crypto once. Not a single word.
And people noticed. There were folks on Polymarket who had bet big money—over $600,000—expecting crypto to come up in the conversation. But instead, it was a total bust. The interview didn’t even start on time.
Trump’s recent public appearances have reportedly caused some concern among his advisors. But this is Trump we’re talking about, so who knows what could happen next?
For now, though, the Polymarket odds are tilting in Kamala’s favor, and that’s making Bitcoin nervous.
