The term recession includes the economy as a whole, not just the markets.
Markets are consequently affected by recession, but for those who do not know recession, it includes, touches, and affects the lives of ordinary people outside the financial markets and those inside the financial markets as well.
One sign of recession is not enough. We need more confirmation from unemployment evidence.
We need to follow up on these indicators in the coming period.
1- Follow up on the quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters, and so far the latest release has been good.
2- Follow up on the release of CB data, the US Consumer Confidence Index, its decline is bad and suggests stagnation, and its last release was balanced, better than expected, at 100.3.
3- Follow up on ten-year bond yields, and the danger and signs of recession begin to fall below 2.14%.
4- Following the price of a barrel of oil below $70 to $60 is a negative sign and a sign of recession.
5- Follow up on the industrial production index, which will be released on the 15th of this month. The previous reading was at 0.6%, and so far in acceptable areas, a reading below 0.3% to 0.2% is a negative signal and supports recession.
6- The building permit will be issued on the 16th of this month. The previous reading was 1,454M. The issuance is higher or similar to the previous reading. Positive.
Recession does not support a significant rate of less than this number, which will be an indication of a slowdown in the economy.
7- The unemployment rate index is now 4.3%. We need the markets to settle, but if decisions come at less than 4.3%, it will be positive for the markets and keep the specter of recession away from us temporarily until after the elections.
