☄️The Federal Reserve's balance sheet shrank by $27 billion in one week.

🔵 Goolsbee, Fed Chair:

— We are seeing the desired reduction in inflation

— If US unemployment exceeds 4.1% (currently 4.3%), the Fed will respond by lowering the interest rate

🔵Citi:

— We expect the Fed to cut rates by 1.25% this year (0.5% in September, 0.5% in November, 0.25% in December).

🔵 Bank of America:

— We forecast a 0.25% rate cut by the Fed in September and 0.25% in December

🔵Goldman Sachs:

— The Fed is likely to cut rates by 0.25% in September, 0.25% in November and 0.25% in December

Market Expectations (Fed rate):

— September 18: 50 bps cut to 4.75-5.00%.

— November 7: 50 bps cut to 4.25-4.50%.

— December 18: 25 bps cut to 4.00-4.25%.

— January 29, 2025: 25 bps cut to 3.75-4.00%.

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