☄️The Federal Reserve's balance sheet shrank by $27 billion in one week.
🔵 Goolsbee, Fed Chair:
— We are seeing the desired reduction in inflation
— If US unemployment exceeds 4.1% (currently 4.3%), the Fed will respond by lowering the interest rate
🔵Citi:
— We expect the Fed to cut rates by 1.25% this year (0.5% in September, 0.5% in November, 0.25% in December).
🔵 Bank of America:
— We forecast a 0.25% rate cut by the Fed in September and 0.25% in December
🔵Goldman Sachs:
— The Fed is likely to cut rates by 0.25% in September, 0.25% in November and 0.25% in December
Market Expectations (Fed rate):
— September 18: 50 bps cut to 4.75-5.00%.
— November 7: 50 bps cut to 4.25-4.50%.
— December 18: 25 bps cut to 4.00-4.25%.
— January 29, 2025: 25 bps cut to 3.75-4.00%.
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