Prediction markets have been presented as one of the high-potential use cases of crypto. But for now, most projects have floundered due to low interest.
Polymarket is emerging as the newly active protocol for predictions, with robust activity measured in the past few months. Polymarket managed to build the widest prediction market, growing on top of the Ethereum ecosystem in the past few years. Only in 2024 did Polymarket accelerate both in terms of users and the size of bets.
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Prediction markets on crypto blockchains have been attempted in the past. For some, the business model meant a gray area legal status. For some regions, prediction markets were a form of gambling. Some earlier blockchain apps also tried to hide various gambling or risky trading mechanisms into a prediction market.
Polymarket is still a relatively small app on Polygon, where DeFi and DEX, along with games are the top users. The recent attention, however, may increase with exposure. The Polymarket platform is tokenless, requiring ETH, USDT, or MATIC to make bets.
The Polymarket bets are also lifted by the Euro football championship, with hedging opportunities offering gains for a small investment. Additionally, Polymarket is the hub to decide on future crypto developments. The current bets signal a 90% probability of launching the long-awaited Ethereum ETF by July 26.
US election season drives interest for Polymarket bets
Polymarket, however, looks like achieving an organic product-market fit. As US election season approaches and more events are unrolling on the world stage, Polymarket carries several contested, potentially lucrative bets. The pickup in volumes started in the past couple of months.
⛈️ @Polymarket is taking the crypto world by storm ⛈️
Around since 2020, the app recently SHATTERED all-time highs in volume!
𝙄𝙨 𝙋𝙤𝙡𝙮𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙛𝙞𝙧𝙨𝙩 𝙙𝘼𝙥𝙥 𝙩𝙤 𝙖𝙘𝙝𝙞𝙚𝙫𝙚 𝙤𝙧𝙜𝙖𝙣𝙞𝙘 𝙋𝙈𝙁?
Let's dive into the data 🧵 pic.twitter.com/UPxCd9sr9z
— Artemis (@artemis__xyz) July 10, 2024
The success of Polymarket did not arrive in a single day. The project has been tied to Polychain and has gained support from the likes of investor Naval Ravikant.
For Polymarket, the chief drivers are now bets on the outcome of the US Presidential Election, a topic where more milestones may invite bets or changes in running bets. In addition to the chief topic of the election winner, a new market emerged. In the past days, Polymarket rallied after opening odds for the potential of the current US President Joe Biden falling out of the race. Other political markets are also booming in response to the chief prediction topic.
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In 2024, the topic started to dominate, expanding to nearly 70% of all bets on the platform. The most numerous bets on this topic range between $1,000 to $10,000 and $10,000 to $100,000.
In May, the inflow of users increased to 29,432 on a monthly basis. There is a near-peak of around 3,590 daily active traders making or altering their bets.
The bets have also increased open interest exponentially. Polymarket now carries more than 46M in predictions for the hottest topics. Daily trading volume for Polymarket also expanded to $4.6M.
Prediction markets inch up for other projects
Polymarket is currently among the most successful markers, but other prediction tokens are benefitting. The entire market for those types of projects inched up, for a total market cap of around $712M. With this move, the prediction market is now double the size of Bitcoin Runes or other smaller trends.
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Gnosis (GNO) is still the leading token locking in the most value. The rise of Polymarket also coincides with the appearance of smaller tokens with niche prediction markets. GNO is getting significant support in 2024, trading at around $265. GNO is still lower than its peak above $500, but trading with near-record volumes. The heightened activity is also a sign in growing interest for prediction tokens.
Regulation remains the biggest obstacle for prediction markets. There is undeniable demand for prediction opportunities. For blockchain projects, there is also competition from off-chain prediction markets.
The biggest advantage of on-chain markets, however, is that they are permissionless and for the most part, unconstrained by borders. Those conditions may change at any moment. But in the case of Polychain, the permissionless nature of blockchains meant user numbers responded immediately.
Cryptopolitan reporting by Hristina Vasileva