• ConstitutionDAO ($PEOPLE), a meme coin with a large community, became Convert's largest volume growth token last week. On June 9, the $PEOPLE price reached a one-year high of $0.144, followed by strong selling pressure. Today, it is trading at $0.061, representing a 57% drop in one month. 

  • Notcoin ($NOT), a popular Telegram game and play-to-earn project integrated into the TON blockchain, has become one of the TON ecosystem's most valuable projects. Notcoin, in collaboration with DeFi platform 1inch ($1inch) and on-chain attestation protocol Sign, announced the launch of Triangle, a new accelerator program aimed at assisting developers building on the Telegram messaging platform and The Open Network (TON). 

  • $RNDR is the Render Network's utility token, which offers decentralized GPU-based rendering solutions. $RNDR has performed exceptionally well since last September, coinciding with the AI narrative playing out in the equities markets. Its price reached a yearly high of $13.84 in February, and it is now trading at $6.33, representing a 54% drop from that high. 

Overall Market

  • The above chart shows the BTC price movement with the 1D chart.

  • The Bitcoin price had a challenging week last week, dropping from $63,800 to $53,485 last Friday before rebounding to $59,470 on Wednesday.

  • Traders attributed the rapid price drop to the sale of 50,000 BTC from the German government. The BTC price dropped with weak demand after an on-chain analysis revealed that the wallet controlled by the German government transferred a large amount of BTC to CEXs. The falling price prompted traders to close their long positions, accelerating the price decline. 

  • On Friday, Bitcoin ($BTC) derivatives traders faced over $226 million in liquidation, with the price falling to $53,485, the lowest in four months. It was the second-largest liquidation event in Bitcoin history, surpassing the amount liquidated during the FTX collapse.

  • On-chain data indicates that the BTC sale from the German government is nearing completion, and the BTC price has rebounded more than 7% from its low, trading at $57.6k.

  • However, the sale from Germany is only the beginning. The market is waiting for Mt. Gox to repay its creditors, and this time the estimated amount is 142k BTC. Mt Gox plans to distribute the repayment to creditors beginning in July, and the repayment schedule varies and could last up to 90 days depending on the custodians.

  • From a technical standpoint, after BTC's price broke through the $60k strong support, it became strong resistance. The strong support below is in the $50k/52k range. Our team anticipates that the Bitcoin price will remain in this large range of 50k to 60k for the next few weeks until it finds its direction.


Options Market

  • The above table is the 25-delta skew for BTC and ETH options.

  • According to the table, near-term BTC options have negative skewness, while long-term options have positive skewness. 

  • This means that options traders are bearish on the Bitcoin price in the short term (7-30 days) but remain bullish in the long term, with the largest tilt in 180 days.

  • Ethereum, on the other hand, has a positive skewness toward options of various tenors. Options traders hold similar views on the long-term price of BTC and ETH.

  • Short-term, with the possibility of an ETH ETF listing in the coming weeks, both 7-day and 30-day ETH options have positive skews.

Macro at a glance 

  • Last Wednesday (24-07-03)

    • ADP nonfarm employment in the US increased by 150k in June, falling short of the estimated 163k and the 157k in May. It indicates a slowdown in demand in the US labour market.

    • US initial jobless claims increased from 234k last week to 238k this week, exceeding the expected 234k figure.

    • FOMC meeting minutes revealed that officials needed more confidence in slowing inflation before cutting rates. 

  • Last Friday (24-07-05)

    • US nonfarm payrolls increased by 206k in June, exceeding the estimated 191k increase. May job gains were revised sharply down from 272k to 218k.

    • The US unemployment rate increased to 4.1% in June, exceeding the estimated 4.0% and May's 4.0%.

  • On Tuesday (24-07-09)

    • Fed Chair Powell stated that US inflation is moving in the right direction, but that more progress is needed to gain confidence before cutting rates. He stated that the Fed did not need to wait for 2% inflation to cut rates. The market is pricing in a 72.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in the September meeting.

  • On Thursday, we will have US CPI data, with an estimated 3.1% annualized growth in CPI and 3.4% in core CPI. 

Convert Portal Volume Change

  • The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. 

  • Following a 16% drop in Bitcoin price last week, market trading demand has recovered. Last week, the two zones with the highest volume increases were Storage and Launchpool.

  • Both Arweave ($AR) and Filecoin ($FIL) saw a surge in demand following the weekend's rebound. The two tokens are the main causes of the significant volume increase in the Storage zone.

  • Notcoin ($NOT), a play-to-earn token integrated into the TON ecosystem, saw a massive return last week, attracting a large number of traders to trade on our Convert platform. It was the primary driver of last week's Launchpool zone volume increase.   

  • Notcoin ($NOT) is also the primary reason for the gaming zone's 36.6% volume increase.


Why trade OTC?  

Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. 

Email: trading@binance.com for more information.

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