US Job Market Slump Could Fuel Bitcoin
YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com) — The US job market is showing signs of weakening, which might boost Bitcoin prices. The unemployment rate in the US rose to 4.1%, surpassing the anticipated 4.0%. This is the highest level since December 2021.
In June, the US economy added 206,000 jobs. This figure exceeded the expected 191,000 but fell short compared to May’s revised 218,000 jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released this data on July 5.
US Employment Data Summary – June 2024. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
A weakening labor market in the US could serve as a positive catalyst for Bitcoin prices. Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at Bitfinex, stated,
“If the NFP report shows weaker-than-expected job growth, it could increase expectations for future rate cuts, which might bolster Bitcoin prices as investors seek alternative assets in anticipation of a looser monetary policy.”
Bitcoin Price Trends Amid Job Market Changes
Bitcoin prices have been in a downtrend for over a month. The cryptocurrency has fallen below the significant $60,000 mark, reaching a four-month low. On July 5, Bitcoin dropped over 10.5% in 24 hours, hitting $53,550, according to Bitstamp data.
BTC/USD, YTD chart. Source: TradingView
The last time Bitcoin traded at this level was in February 2024. Some traders worry the bull cycle might have ended, while others see the current correction as typical. The analyst Rekt Capital noted,
“This pullback is -21% deep & 45 days long. In this cycle, average retrace depth is -22% & average retrace duration is 42 days. In terms of retrace depth, this is almost an average retrace. In terms of retrace duration, this is an above-average pullback.”
BTC/USD, 1-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital Bitcoin ETFs Face Net Negative Outflows
Institutional inflows from US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been lagging. US ETFs are on track for their third consecutive week of net negative inflows. This week alone has seen over $315 million in cumulative net outflows, according to Dune data.
Bitcoin ETF net weekly flows. Source: Dune
Kooner believes Bitcoin ETF flows could see an uptick if the weakening labor market drives expectations of an interest rate cut. He said,
“Bitcoin ETF flows might see an uptick if market participants believe that economic uncertainty will drive the Fed towards eventual rate cuts, enhancing the appeal of Bitcoin as an inflation hedge. However, significant inflows would depend on broader market sentiment and risk appetite.”
Summary of Key Points
Unemployment Rate: Rose to 4.1%, highest since December 2021.
Job Additions: 206,000 jobs added in June, lower than May’s revised 218,000.
Bitcoin Prices: In downtrend, dropped to $53,550 on July 5.
Bitcoin ETFs: Third week of net negative inflows, over $315 million outflows this week.
Market Sentiment: Cautious with potential interest rate cuts being monitored.
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