There is widespread speculation about whether BTC will drop to $40,000, stabilize around $60,000, or surge past $100,000. The current market landscape is distinct from the major bull market of 2020-2021, driven by unlimited quantitative easing, and the bear market of 2021-2022, characterized by industry deleveraging.
In the current structured bull market, only a few tokens may rise due to market strategies and financial backing. Many projects have depleted their funds and expectations over the past three years, making it challenging to boost the market again, particularly for some public chains, DeFi, and GameFi projects funded during the last bull-to-bear cycle. Projects like Manta and Alt Layer have been notable performers in the current environment.
Regarding BTC ETFs, American investors mainly favor BTC and show little interest in altcoins. Exchanges are adopting conservative strategies under regulatory scrutiny, with few bold moves like Binance's Spaceship and OKX's SHIB. There are virtually no Ponzi schemes lasting more than a month.
High FDV and low circulation were specialties of FTX and SBF, but current investors and exchanges seem ill-equipped to manage them. While new coins often perform well in a bull market, this cycle has been particularly tough, especially for OKX's new coins, which are largely subpar VC projects. Most of Binance's new coins can still drive the market, but OKX's new coins are widely viewed as failures.
The main challenge facing altcoins is the sell-off from the last round of project teams and investors, who are running out of funds. Many VC-backed projects are still awaiting listing, and the market will need to wait for these to clear before seeing a revival.
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