Big players and whales are quietly taking profits. The remaining positions are using profits to buy some long-term options, to capture the last price increase. So, retail investors should also pay attention to risks. First, do not go all in. Second, remember to set insurance. Finally, if the profits are good, do not be greedy! It's appropriate to take profits on half of it first.
Honestly, this round of the bull market hasn't seen a decent wave of altcoins Maybe there won't be one Bitcoin stands out alone The others have been continuously sold off and are consistently refreshing $ETH $SOL $XRP
Let's manage risks based on the gamma level. Currently, ETH is most likely to fluctuate between 3600 and 4100. Sol has resistance at 220 for upward movement, and there is no support for downward movement. I'm relying on it.
Big Pie and Auntie returned to the middle track, both in the form of pins. Sol returned to the lower track. Although the callback method is disgusting, it is still healthy. It is recommended to buy put insurance near the middle track In the long run, it is still a bull market expectation, at least a double top You can open a position between the middle track and the lower track, or grid Options + spot, basically equal to invincibility You won’t make a lot of money, but you can retire with stable income
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张无忌wepoets
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This week's retracement risk has surged, be careful Trump's TV interview has made a big move, institutions are bearish on the bubble Ethereum is still relatively strong, but the risk of retracement is imminent It depends on whether Bitcoin can continue to lead the rise Some whales have already cleared their positions Take care and cherish what you have Prepare for a downturn insurance
This week's retracement risk has surged, be careful Trump's TV interview has made a big move, institutions are bearish on the bubble Ethereum is still relatively strong, but the risk of retracement is imminent It depends on whether Bitcoin can continue to lead the rise Some whales have already cleared their positions Take care and cherish what you have Prepare for a downturn insurance
【Is it contradictory that both the employment rate and the unemployment rate in the U.S. are rising?】
On Friday, December 6, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the U.S. added 227,000 non-farm jobs in November, exceeding expectations of 220,000 and the previous value of 12,000. The unemployment rate in November was 4.2%, surpassing expectations and the previous month's 4.1%.
Is it contradictory that both the employment rate and the unemployment rate are rising?
The simultaneous increase in the number of new jobs and the unemployment rate in the U.S. is not contradictory. This phenomenon can be understood from the perspective of the economic cycle. According to the economic cycle, consumption is the source of the U.S. economy; economic indicators can be divided into leading indicators (such as consumption), coincident indicators (such as inventory, industrial production, capital expenditure), and lagging indicators (such as employment, unemployment rate). In a high-interest-rate environment, pressure first manifests at the consumption and production levels, which are reflected in leading and coincident indicators, while employment and unemployment rates, as lagging indicators, experience changes with a delay.
In the first half of this year, despite a decline in consumption and PMI, the unemployment rate remained low for a long time. This is logically consistent, as the pressure in a high-interest-rate environment had not yet fully spread to lagging indicators like employment. However, in the second half of the year, employment as a lagging indicator began to weaken, and the unemployment rate gradually rose, raising concerns about a market recession. Therefore, the increase in new jobs may reflect short-term dynamics in the labor market, such as seasonal factors and changes in specific industries, while the rise in the unemployment rate may reflect longer-term trends and changes in the economic cycle.
Moreover, the rise in the unemployment rate may also be related to changes in labor market participation. For instance, if more people enter the labor market seeking jobs, the unemployment rate may rise even if the number of employed increases. Thus, the simultaneous changes in these two indicators can result from a combination of various economic factors and are not necessarily contradictory.
Currently, the unemployment rate part of the data has a greater impact and is favorable for interest rate cut expectations. Therefore, after the data was released, U.S. stocks rose, and traders became more confident about a rate cut in December. $BTC $ETH
Profit has been closed, opened a new double sell position Range, 3400 to 3800 +ddh Expiration on the 4th Volatility is rising, continue to lick blood on the knife edge
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张无忌wepoets
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Today, some 3-day settlement ETH double sales + ddh were opened, with a price range of 3500-3900. The volatility is higher than daily settlements and double days, making it relatively cost-effective.
Bitcoin and Solana have not surged significantly, while ETH has been leading these days. However, the volatility is still on the decline, so the likelihood of breaking through the previous high is not very high. Take the opportunity to double sell and capture some profits from the wide fluctuations. The correctness of the judgment will be verified in 3 days.
Today, some 3-day settlement ETH double sales + ddh were opened, with a price range of 3500-3900. The volatility is higher than daily settlements and double days, making it relatively cost-effective.
Bitcoin and Solana have not surged significantly, while ETH has been leading these days. However, the volatility is still on the decline, so the likelihood of breaking through the previous high is not very high. Take the opportunity to double sell and capture some profits from the wide fluctuations. The correctness of the judgment will be verified in 3 days.
[How to use the DDH tool for sol options, real-time teaching]
DDH, in Chinese, means dynamic hedging. Delta neutrality is achieved through parameter settings.
When the hedging threshold is set, when the delta value of positive and negative deviation is reached, hedging will be triggered to rebalance delta neutrality.
Therefore, the smaller the threshold, the more frequent the triggering.
Double sell options should be triggered at the critical point as much as possible.
How to calculate the critical point? As shown in the figure.
I opened a double sell position at 238, sold call 255, and sold put 222
The total time value is 84 dollars.
Set the threshold to rise or fall 12 dollars to trigger hedging
12×gamma total value 0.88, about delta total value 10.5
As shown in the figure↓
If you have any questions, please discuss in the Ice and Fire Island community.