#BTC According to historical rules, the few months before and after the halving are our opportunities to lay out long-term chips. The current wave of grayscale market crashes, coupled with the fading of expectations for an interest rate cut in March, as well as various macro aspects, the denial of interest rate cuts, and the realization of cash during the Spring Festival, give This gives us a good opportunity to enter the market. In the next few months, we need to pay attention to the time when the Federal Reserve will stop shrinking its balance sheet. Stopping shrinking its balance sheet means the end of tightening. The currency circle will still be affected by the US stock market, but it will not be as big as it is now, and funds will flow back. Go to the currency circle.

The last wave of opportunities before the bull market. Of course, we give priority to core assets in our layout. Ether accounts for at least 70% of the big pie. If the current 40,000 is blocked and unstable, it is a very good choice to enter the spot in the range of 38,500-37,000. Below 38,000 It is a good medium and long-term layout opportunity. In addition to the recent Cancun upgrade module, which is a good currency, these few also recommend RDNT MAGIC GMX GNS. I will talk about why I am optimistic about these coins later. Time changes space, the rest is left to patience, the bull market is on the way$BTC

Last night, Bitcoin perfectly triggered the 58000-57500 mentioned in our public analysis strategy. As of today, it has gained more than 2000 points. Pay attention to lock in profits in short-term operations! In a volatile market, determine the volatility range before entering the market. Don’t blindly follow gossip and be bearish.

Tonight, there will be unemployment data at 8:30, which will have an impact on interest rate cuts and recession. If it is lower than expected, it is positive, higher than expected, it is negative, and if it meets expectations, it is a small positive. My personal opinion remains unchanged. If there is negative news, we need to be cautious about going long. The support position below is 56,000-54,000. If there is positive news, we will continue to update our views.

Nvidia's sales and profits exceeded expectations. After the release, the stock price fell by 5%, driving the currency circle down, but Ethereum's performance returned to a stronger state, mainly because ETFs finally resumed inflows. Now the trend of the currency circle is highly bound to ETFs, but the total amount of Ethereum is still in a net outflow state.

BTC once again tested the support area of ​​58,000. It last time was sideways at this position for half a month. It was not until the 22nd that it broke through. After several rebounds, the high point of each time has been decreasing, indicating that the upper pressure is relatively strong, and institutional whales will make profits and reduce their holdings in time. The liquidation chart shows that there is still a lot of liquidation space for long positions at 59,000-57,000.

The short-term operation suggestions remain unchanged, and the views of yesterday are still maintained. The pressure level reference is 61,000-61,500, which belongs to the middle track pressure and is also an important liquidation position. Short-term support reference is 58,000-57,500

BTC has been fluctuating back and forth recently, and a market trend appeared last night, with a straight drop of more than 4,000 points! ETH team sold out contracts, and the cottage fell from March to August. Most of them were at the bottom of the issue price or the annual low. You can refer to the recent market outlook. Why did it fall? There are two reasons. The first is to digest the expectations of the previous interest rate cut speculation. The second is the flight of Ethereum funds, which led to the collapse of the currency circle. Whales and teams began to sell. The third is a normal technical correction. After all, it has risen by 16,000 points from the low point of 49,000. The dog dealer must be for the purpose of making money, and it is impossible to keep rising. Most of the whales' layout positions are below 55,000. When it reaches above 60,000, it is actually a high position. It is normal to start cashing out and making band fluctuations above 65,000. The worst case will only last until the release of the interest rate cut in mid-September 17, when the financial market begins to improve. Then the short-term shock will wear down the selling pressure and selling pressure of Mentougou. The complete end of the Mentougou incident is also a big positive for the currency circle, which is equivalent to solving a sword hanging over the head of the currency circle for more than ten years. Important news this week is the PCE situation. If it is negative, we should pay attention to the range of 56000-54000. Nvidia's third-quarter financial report will be released at 4 am tonight, which will also have an impact on the currency circle. If you have time, you can pay attention to it.

In the short term, the high-altitude is the main focus. The pressure level is 61000-61500. This is the middle track pressure, and it is more likely to continue to wash down. The short-term support is 57500-57000. When you get here, you can start to arrange spot in batches. The medium-term support is around 55500. Before the bulls show a strong stabilization signal, you need to be cautious in bottom-fishing.

The liquidation range of around 62,000 mentioned in the last analysis fell all the way to around 58,500 after being triggered, and then the market rebounded again, with an overall upward trend. The support level we recommend is to enter the market below 59,500. If you strictly follow the plan, this wave of mid-term returns will be very considerable.

BTC's recent trading volume has increased by 40%, stabilizing at the 40 billion level. ETFs and other altcoins have also seen a significant increase in trading volume, indicating that market liquidity has rebounded and the supply of selling orders is gradually decreasing. I personally think that from today onwards, the wide range of fluctuations in September may be 61,000-72,000.

The macro-interest rate cut has basically been determined, and Powell has also It is said that the policy will be changed to cut interest rates and release water. The CME data shows that 25 basis points is 67%, and 50 basis points is 33%. It is highly likely that the interest rate will be cut at the September policy meeting (September 17). Before that, there are PCE on August 30 and non-farm on September 6, which are news that need to be paid attention to. In addition, there are ETF net inflows, weekly bull flag patterns, and the US election. All the positive factors are concentrated in the fourth quarter.

The market did not fluctuate much over the weekend, and it was almost a straight line. I will not write too much analysis. After a sharp rise, the market needs to be repaired. The support level can be focused on 63,000, and the breakthrough level can be focused on 64,400. The potential target and pressure level refer to 65,500-66,000

BTC short-term market daily level still maintains shock repair. Since the last daily line was blocked at 62,000, there was no follow-up in the market, and then it fell back, which can be regarded as a false breakthrough.

The 4-hour level has changed from a weak increase to a shock range, with a bottom of 56,000 and an upper pressure of 60,000. There is no volume, so there will be no big fluctuations. There is still no change in the short term. In addition, the fluctuations are relatively small on weekends, and it may still maintain shocks.

For intraday operations, you can refer to the support around 58,500. This is the support and resistance conversion position. The pressure level is still 59,600-60,000, and you can consider shorting.

After BTC experienced a washout of 56,000-60,000 this week, the short-term pattern has changed. There are differences between the long and short sides in the short-term trend. What should we do when the negative and positive market are intertwined?

Here is an explanation of the negative side. The overall source is the instability of the US politics and economy. The news may face the risk of a hard landing. There are also several other factors:

1. Mentougou released 2 billion BTC, which will take some time to digest

2. The US government sells coins (no doubt here, entering the exchange means selling coins, there is no custody), and transfers more than 10,000 coins

3. There is still the possibility that war conflicts will be amplified, from geopolitical conflicts to world conflicts

The positive aspects cannot be ignored. I personally think that it will not go bearish. The market is more likely to start repairing in late August-early September and continue to reverse the trend. The reasons are as follows:

1. An An’s former CEO cz is about to be released
2. Now is the best time to speculate on interest rate cuts
3. ETFs are still strong and show no signs of decline. Once the summer downturn ends, greater transactions and liquidity will come
4. The market panic index is still at 25. Extreme bearish conditions are generally the best time to invest in spot stocks
5. Panic is slowly fading

We have talked about a process before, sideways in June, leverage clearance in July, gradually releasing positive news in August, and officially opening the market in September. The first two have been confirmed. The reason why I rarely update articles about the market in August is that I think it is because I can lie flat for a while to ensure that I can survive until the market is repaired and the trend rebound begins

Regarding the recent information about the cryptocurrency market, some people say that it will go bearish or that the bull market is over. This view is really stupid. Regardless of whether it is true or not, you don’t even have a general understanding of the bull-bear transition stage.

There are not so many reasons for the rise and fall of the cryptocurrency market. One reason is enough. When the cycle comes, the mood rises, everyone is FOMO, and funds enter the market, so it naturally rises. At present, everyone is optimistic about BTC in the future market. If it falls, there will be funds to support it.

Someone else said that there was a war and a financial crisis. According to this, Russia and Ukraine should not have had a bull market until now. It is not that it has fallen as much as it has pulled back. Look at the smart money or big investors during the financial crisis. There is not much panic. On the contrary, there are more chips accumulated.

85% of the central banks of major countries in the world are in a state of loose interest rate cuts, and only the United States is left to hold on. We need to understand the significance of global money printing and the significance of the United States printing money

A normal bull market has three stages. Bitcoin sucks blood and climbs, ETH takes over and leads the altcoins to rise together, and then all coins rise together. The meme performance season is full of local dogs, and the second stage has not yet arrived

The leeks in the currency circle have always doubted the bull market. They didn’t get on the train in 23 years, waited and watched in 24 years, and still doubted in 25 years. Even if Bitcoin falls to 15,000 again, 100% are still waiting and watching. Remember that in 25 years, whether it is a bull market or not, you will not lose a few years of salary. If it is, you will work less for decades. With this profit and loss ratio, dogs know how to choose.

In the morning, we reminded that BTC may hit 62,000 for the second time and then fall back. The second impact was not enough, and the highest was only around 61,300. At present, 58,500 has been converted into a support chip area after a long period of accumulation.

There is no major information in the recent fundamentals. You can pay attention to the CPI at 8:30 pm tonight. It is expected to be 3%. I personally think it will be good. In addition, ETFs have been net inflows in the past few days, and market sentiment has recovered.

The chip concentration area and liquidation chart above show that the pressure is concentrated in the 63,000-64,000 range. If you want to short, this is a relatively ideal band short position. At present, there are fewer short orders that can be liquidated. At the same time as the market stops Also pay attention to the risk of periodic corrections

1-hour and 4-hour levels have also returned to healthy levels and are currently in a consolidation trend. The daily level has reduced volume. It should be noted that the recent Bitcoin market is basically the same as the US stock market, but the Nasdaq is under technical pressure, so the short-term band should not be missed. The most dangerous idea in the bull market is to keep going long but ignore the risk of falling

Intraday operations should focus on low-long and follow the trend. Pay attention to the support of the integer level of 60400-60000. The first pressure level to pay attention to is the 62000 pressure level. Here, you can only take a small stop loss of less than 500 points. It is necessary to observe whether it is a large-volume breakthrough. If it is a strong breakout, you can short in batches in the 63000-64000 range.

From a technical perspective, BTC has closed for two days during the holiday and the middle Bollinger line has been broken again, which seems to be opening a downward channel. Just like the previous script, a short signal appears in 4H, and MACD also returns to hover near the zero axis. Be careful of a new round of downward trend.

The key focus is below 58,000. If it is effectively broken again, it will form a 6-hour + 4-hour + daily level short signal. Let’s not talk about whether it will rise back. The duration of this signal will at least last for a few days.

On the contrary, if the support is effective, the position of 58,000-57,500 will rebound again. Attack, and form a wide range of shocks with 61000, there will be a chance to continue to rise in the future. After all, it has risen by 12000 points from the low point of 49000. Even if the market is strong, it should return to the technical side.

The operation idea remains unchanged. You can go long at the low position of the opportunity range during the day. The first entry point for low longs is 56500, which is the end position of the 4H level gate. If it falls below 60000, it will go to the support below at 55200-55800 Fibonacci 0.5 position to make up once. The defense is the same as the 54000 integer level. The pressure position reference is 59500-60000

The weekend analysis has not been updated, which means that the view on Saturday is still maintained. I have already warned that there may be a downward trend. After the big cake touched the high of the range of 62,000, it fell all the way back to 58,000.

The short-term ups and downs will continue. There will be large fluctuations today, Monday. The key depends on the opening of the US stock market in the evening.

This week, the focus is on CPI data and unemployment data. This time is more critical. Major institutions believe that interest rates must be cut in September.

However, the current market expectation has reached the 50% probability of interest rate cuts in September. If it goes as it should, institutions may intervene in the market again to prepare for the official start of interest rate cuts.

Maybe many people still don't understand what ETF inflows mean? Is it a good thing or a bad thing? Let's make a comparison.

BTC: (market value 1.2 trillion)
The ETF listing price was 49,000 on 1/11.

On 1/24, the selling pressure fell to 38,500. (-21.5%)

On 3/15, it reached a historical high of 73,800. (+91.7%)

ETH: (market value 350 billion)
The ETF price listed on July 23 was 3530
On August 5, Grayscale's selling pressure also fell to 2080 (-41.1%)

The value of BTC is about 3.5 times that of Ethereum. Currently, the total net inflow of Bitcoin's ETF is 17.3 billion US dollars. It is conservatively estimated that the inflow of Ethereum is half of that of Bitcoin, 8.6 billion. A rough calculation shows that the increase will be 1.75 times that of Bitcoin, which is 160.5%

Now you know what the concept is. Assuming that the inflow of Ethereum can reach half of that of Bitcoin, the price is conservatively estimated to be 2.6 times the current price, which is at least 5400. The current net inflow is (-406 million). Continue to pay attention to the trend of Ethereum

MEME coins have completely exploded, making most traditional value coins look pale in comparison. It can even be said that the face of value coins has been severely rubbed on the ground by MEME coins.

For those investors who hold value coins, they have not felt the arrival of the bull market at all. Except for a few value coins in popular tracks such as TON, SOL, and BTC, which have performed relatively well, other value coins are really hard to describe, either stagnating or showing a downward trend.

Those who are fully committed to MEME coins have set new highs in wealth. One batch after another of people have become rich by relying on various so-called "dog" projects. Every time when the market shows a counterattack, MEME coins take the lead and lead the market's upward trend.

In the financial market, which is essentially a hot money market and liquidity pool, the role of attention boards is crucial. In the case of little increase in total market value, funds tend to flow to a certain direction. When a large amount of funds flow to MEME coins, the value coin market on the other side is bound to be exhausted. This imbalance in capital flow is directly reflected in the rise and fall of prices, and the crazy rise of MEME coins is naturally eye-catching enough.

At present, the popularity of MEME coins continues to rise. Some people broke their defense because they couldn't stand the sluggish performance of value coins, chose to join the investment camp of MEME coins, and made money; some people missed the early opportunities of MEME coins or didn't know much about them, so they have been watching. But overall, the prejudice of society against MEME coins remains at a high level

#TON #SOL #meme #pepe

6.2 billion PEPE tokens were destroyed. The benefits are obvious: first, the supply is greatly reduced, which can easily drive up prices and increase value. Second, the scarcity is enhanced, and the number is reduced in each transaction, which can attract more investors. Third, it enhances investor confidence. The project party's move is intended to maintain value and interests, and is expected to drive up prices.

In the short term, Bitcoin is unlikely to bottom out again. At most, it will pull back on the daily line and continue to hit the pressure levels of 62,500 and 63,800 US dollars. The CME gap has been filled. For this rebound, the stop profit is set at 65,000-68,000 US dollars. Because the short-term indicators need to be repaired, it will not hit the high point of 70,000 at once. The whales bottomed out and promoted the rebound.

Key points to pay attention to

1. US recession expectations, because it caused this decline, if the relevant data is hyped, it will affect the market.

2. The political situation in the United States, Trump lost the election, Harris represented the Democratic Party and had a high approval rate, which affected the policy environment of cryptocurrency.

3. Japan's interest rate hike once triggered a plunge in the global financial market. If the interest rate is raised again, it will affect capital flow and market liquidity.

4. US stocks and spot ETF data, Bitcoin is related to the US stock NASDAQ, and ETF data reflects market sentiment and purchasing power.

#TON #SUI #NOT #XRP #PEPE

Last night, the big cake tested the strong support of 59490 again and then rebounded slightly, which is considered to be out of the weak market. In the next two days, it is likely to fluctuate widely in the range of 58500-62800 to wait.

The market price is still running above the four-hour Bollinger middle rail, and there is EMA100 suppression above, which is basically the same as the script we talked about yesterday. The next step is to wait for the macd indicator to challenge the upward pressure again after adjusting above.

Continue to buy low during the day, and wait for the support of the day to be placed on the Bollinger middle rail in the range of 59100-58600. If it falls below, refer to the second-level mid-term bottom defense in the range of 55300-56000

Because the market is very strong at present, the weekend still chooses to layout low and long, and the pressure position chooses the high point of this time 62400-63000 to layout short orders

The big cake is strong again. The four-hour level has broken through the Bollinger middle rail with volume. MACD has also broken through the zero axis. The 57800 support and resistance have been exchanged. In the short term, as long as it is retested here, it is likely to be supported. In the morning, 62000 was suppressed by the Bollinger middle rail. After reaching 62700, the market returned to 60000.

This decline is basically over. Don’t look at any second bottoming. 49000 is the golden pit this time. The current market has volume and price. In the second half of the month, it will definitely be hyped up by interest rate cuts and CZ coming out. Mentougou is completely over. Many long-term positive events, seize the opportunity to absorb funds during consolidation

Intraday shock adjustment market, stabilize the four-hour Bollinger middle rail 57500-58000 support level for low-absorption operations, intraday support reference 60000, breakthrough orders can be seen at 61300, target 62500-63000, after the callback, it is still mainly low-multiple.

I told you to enter the market at the mid-line near 54,000 in the evening. You should pay attention to avoid the risk of decline. This time, the big cake made a golden pit and fell to 54,000. It pulled back to 57,000 in the morning. Now it has a floating profit of more than 3,000 points.

At this stage, those who are still on the train are those who have been holding below 45,000. From the chart, we can see that there were almost no liquidations last night, but the position volume was greatly reduced. Almost no one dared to take long orders. At this stage, the train is light and the dealer will take action.

Technically, it will be a wide range of low-level shocks in the short term. The big cake is firmly above the middle rail of Bollinger in four hours, but from the perspective of MACD, it is still below the zero axis. It may maintain shock repair and choose the direction later.

Continue to sell high and buy low during the day. The long orders taken from the low of 54,000 last night should be stopped at the pressure of the upper rail of Bollinger at 58,000-58,500. The pressure level refers to the range of 59,000-60,000, and the support level is 556,000-56,100.

BTC's short position at 57,000 last night dropped to 55,557 at its lowest. It broke through the four-hour Bollinger middle rail again during the day. Although the small-level trend fluctuated upward, it is currently back to around 57,000.

But to be bullish overall, at least a second bottom test is needed to confirm that the decline has weakened, and the time cycle may take a week.

In addition, during this week's data window period, it is best to repeatedly wash the market. After a certain degree, CPI will choose a direction next week. From a technical point of view, the pressure level of 57,500-58,000 has arrived. The hourly MACD currently crosses the zero axis. At present, the rebound is very strong, and there is a chance to challenge the pressure of the 60,000 integer mark again.

The support level during the day is 56,100-55,700. This position can be used as a reference for short-term entry. It only takes four or five hundred points to defend. If it breaks, you can refer to the second support for a mid-term single entry around 54,000. The 60,000 integer mark gives you an opportunity to consider shorting.

SOL's over-the-counter (OTC) trading is about to unlock. The cost of this unlocking is about 100.

This situation is very likely to bring a certain degree of panic to the SOL market. Because a large number of chips unlocked may cause a sudden increase in supply in the market, thereby exerting downward pressure on prices.

Objectively speaking, institutions participating in OTC are well aware of the risks and opportunities of the market, and usually adopt hedging strategies to reduce potential losses. So from the perspective of capital, there are certain benefits to pulling up SOL

By raising the price to a high enough position, capital can take the opportunity to open short hedges, thereby harvesting funds in future market fluctuations. As far as the current situation is concerned, the SOL ecosystem is extremely active, and some even claim that its activity exceeds that of ETH.

But it should be clear that this activity is largely caused by the MEME effect. Under the influence of this effect, everyone fell into a crazy FOMO (emotion, and the demand for SOL rose sharply

In this process, most people ignored the potential rollback risk of SOL. Once this risk breaks out, it may cause investors incalculable losses.

1. In the cryptocurrency circle, no one is born a master. Only by constantly learning and adapting can you gain a firm foothold.

2. Cryptocurrency trading is not just about making money. It is more like a game that tests your mentality, wisdom and patience. Only by keeping a stable mentality can you survive longer in this market.

3. Seize opportunities, control risks, and don't let your account lose control.

4. The market is like life, with ups and downs. You need to face it calmly and stay rational. Don't go all-in.

5. Many times, failure is due to strategy and mentality. Keep a good attitude and don't be affected by temporary wins and losses. This is an important secret to becoming a winner.