Today, it is highly likely that there will be a decline, as investors need to hedge ahead of tonight's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. The focus of this meeting is no longer on a 25 basis point rate cut, but rather on the dot plot and Powell's speech. To put it simply, the Federal Reserve may implement only 2 to 4 rate cuts in 2025. The higher the interest rates in 2025, the greater the likelihood of a black swan event, and the market will be more concerned about the delay in easing policies. Therefore, investors' risk awareness is increasing, and there is a detailed explanation in the pinned tweet. In addition to the interest rate meeting, there is also the question of whether Japan will raise interest rates in December, with results expected on the 19th. Although the probability of a rate hike is indeed low, it is normal to be cautious. Moreover, these two events today are likely to be linked to next week's Christmas.
2024.12.18 Sun Evening Market Analysis: Tonight is destined to be a sleepless night, the interest rate decision at 3 AM will definitely be very intense! Today's market sentiment is indeed very fearful, don't be fooled by the high greed index, as many people are certainly too scared to enter the market!