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A Discussion on AAVE's Valuation
The market value of banks
The calculation of the market value of commercial banks is often quite complex, but I found a method that, while not rigorous, is simple and effective:
Commercial banks with total deposits reaching 10 billion yuan can theoretically earn 1 billion yuan in profit each year. A company with a stable annual income of 1 billion yuan can be valued at least at 10 billion yuan. Therefore, the market value of commercial banks is approximately 10% of their customers' total deposits.
For example:
HSBC's total deposits are approximately $1.63 trillion, with a market value of $162.7 billion, and profits over the past 12 months amount to $16.3 billion. I also found some banks with deposit sizes of $30 billion, and they are basically similar.
The calculation of the market value of commercial banks is often quite complex, but I found a method that, while not rigorous, is simple and effective:
Commercial banks with total deposits reaching 10 billion yuan can theoretically earn 1 billion yuan in profit each year. A company with a stable annual income of 1 billion yuan can be valued at least at 10 billion yuan. Therefore, the market value of commercial banks is approximately 10% of their customers' total deposits.
For example:
HSBC's total deposits are approximately $1.63 trillion, with a market value of $162.7 billion, and profits over the past 12 months amount to $16.3 billion. I also found some banks with deposit sizes of $30 billion, and they are basically similar.
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AAVE's TVL is about to exceed its peak and reach a new high! Meanwhile, AAVE is also about to top the on-chain TVL leaderboard once again!
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$AAVE
A large holder holding 66,000 AAVE just borrowed another $1.5 million from the AAVE protocol and bought 9,800 AAVE. (The average price is about $151)
A large holder holding 66,000 AAVE just borrowed another $1.5 million from the AAVE protocol and bought 9,800 AAVE. (The average price is about $151)
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$AAVE
I'm back! I closed all my leverage on aave at 182. I exchanged all aave for eth at AAVE/ETH 0.065, and yesterday at AAVE/ETH 0.054, I exchanged 80% of aave. Currently, it is making markets in uni v3, with a range of 0.052~0.067.
Aave's contract holdings have dropped to a historical low again. Obviously, aave is not a popular currency at present. I personally expect aave to fluctuate with eth in the next two weeks. So, I chose to make markets in uni v3 and earn some fees.
From historical data, it should be that Bitcoin will rise first, then eth, then mainstream (aave), and finally junk coins will take off. It is expected that Bitcoin will break through $100,000 in November, eth will return to its previous high of $5,000 in December, and aave will return to its previous high of $600 in January 2025. Let's wait and see!
$ETH
I'm back! I closed all my leverage on aave at 182. I exchanged all aave for eth at AAVE/ETH 0.065, and yesterday at AAVE/ETH 0.054, I exchanged 80% of aave. Currently, it is making markets in uni v3, with a range of 0.052~0.067.
Aave's contract holdings have dropped to a historical low again. Obviously, aave is not a popular currency at present. I personally expect aave to fluctuate with eth in the next two weeks. So, I chose to make markets in uni v3 and earn some fees.
From historical data, it should be that Bitcoin will rise first, then eth, then mainstream (aave), and finally junk coins will take off. It is expected that Bitcoin will break through $100,000 in November, eth will return to its previous high of $5,000 in December, and aave will return to its previous high of $600 in January 2025. Let's wait and see!
$ETH
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$AAVE
$ETH
I betrayed my own nickname. When AAVE was at 182 and ETH at 2800, I exchanged all my AAVE for ETH at a rate of 0.065. During this time, ETH has been overly fudged, and I think it's an opportunity. I plan to exchange my AAVE back when the AAVE/ETH rate drops to 0.05. Wish me luck!
$ETH
I betrayed my own nickname. When AAVE was at 182 and ETH at 2800, I exchanged all my AAVE for ETH at a rate of 0.065. During this time, ETH has been overly fudged, and I think it's an opportunity. I plan to exchange my AAVE back when the AAVE/ETH rate drops to 0.05. Wish me luck!
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As the price decreases, the contract open interest also gradually declines, indicating that long positions are being forcibly liquidated.
When the price decreases and the contract open interest increases, it means that the bears are starting to participate in shorting. This is the current situation!
Today, several large holders have deposited AAVE to the exchange, making the bears even more confident...
When the price decreases and the contract open interest increases, it means that the bears are starting to participate in shorting. This is the current situation!
Today, several large holders have deposited AAVE to the exchange, making the bears even more confident...
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$AAVE
Update the status of the big holders who have leveraged long positions on the chain through revolving loans.
Address: 0xfcc5acd50ae590889d2a53343d35b5fb80d403c2
Collateral held: 66017 aave
Debt: 5.31 million US dollars
Health factor: 1.21
Forced liquidation price: aave fell to 110 US dollars
On-chain data shows that during yesterday's decline, he withdrew 1.317 BTC from coinbase and exchanged it for 660 aave on the chain, and then mortgaged it into the aave v3 protocol. This on-chain margin call worth only $90,000 exposed that this large aave holder with assets of millions of dollars may no longer have more money to continue to cover his positions.
Update the status of the big holders who have leveraged long positions on the chain through revolving loans.
Address: 0xfcc5acd50ae590889d2a53343d35b5fb80d403c2
Collateral held: 66017 aave
Debt: 5.31 million US dollars
Health factor: 1.21
Forced liquidation price: aave fell to 110 US dollars
On-chain data shows that during yesterday's decline, he withdrew 1.317 BTC from coinbase and exchanged it for 660 aave on the chain, and then mortgaged it into the aave v3 protocol. This on-chain margin call worth only $90,000 exposed that this large aave holder with assets of millions of dollars may no longer have more money to continue to cover his positions.
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$AAVE
A large holder with 130,000 AAVE has taken new actions!
A few days ago, they successively recharged about 30,000 AAVE to the exchange in three times (19592; 6542; 3850). Today, the large holder withdrew 4.85 million USDC from the exchange. They also repaid all their borrowings in the AAVE V3 protocol. Immediately afterward, they withdrew 82,000 AAVE from the AAVE V3 protocol to the chain (which was originally used as collateral). Now, there are 130,752 AAVE lying in their wallet. What do they want to do???
I will continue to monitor their next actions!
A large holder with 130,000 AAVE has taken new actions!
A few days ago, they successively recharged about 30,000 AAVE to the exchange in three times (19592; 6542; 3850). Today, the large holder withdrew 4.85 million USDC from the exchange. They also repaid all their borrowings in the AAVE V3 protocol. Immediately afterward, they withdrew 82,000 AAVE from the AAVE V3 protocol to the chain (which was originally used as collateral). Now, there are 130,752 AAVE lying in their wallet. What do they want to do???
I will continue to monitor their next actions!
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$AAVE
aave self-rebounded after falling back from $180. Whenever the price approaches around $140, there seems to be a significant increase in volume to stop the decline. There is no doubt that someone is continuously buying here. Recently, the last two pullbacks have started to show some interesting signals.
Signal 1
During the third bottoming attempt, although the price fell below $136, which was the deepest point, the trading volume was also the lowest. This indicates that the panic selling has basically been cleared out, and the trapped positions above $163 have either stopped loss or have simply gone dormant. This is one of the signals that the washout is nearing its end.
Signal 2
In last night's fourth bottoming attempt, BTC fell below $69,000 and ETH fell below $2,500. However, aave did not touch the critical point of $140, not even coming close, showing signs of bottom-fishing funds starting to rush in! Bottom-fishing funds are no longer waiting for a drop below $140 to trigger panic selling, but instead, when there are sell orders at $140, they choose to place orders above that price to 'cut in,' hoping to collect more chips in this pullback than other bottom-fishers.
Signal 1 indicates that the 'selling' is nearing its end.
Signal 2 shows signs that 'grabbing shares' is making a comeback.
aave self-rebounded after falling back from $180. Whenever the price approaches around $140, there seems to be a significant increase in volume to stop the decline. There is no doubt that someone is continuously buying here. Recently, the last two pullbacks have started to show some interesting signals.
Signal 1
During the third bottoming attempt, although the price fell below $136, which was the deepest point, the trading volume was also the lowest. This indicates that the panic selling has basically been cleared out, and the trapped positions above $163 have either stopped loss or have simply gone dormant. This is one of the signals that the washout is nearing its end.
Signal 2
In last night's fourth bottoming attempt, BTC fell below $69,000 and ETH fell below $2,500. However, aave did not touch the critical point of $140, not even coming close, showing signs of bottom-fishing funds starting to rush in! Bottom-fishing funds are no longer waiting for a drop below $140 to trigger panic selling, but instead, when there are sell orders at $140, they choose to place orders above that price to 'cut in,' hoping to collect more chips in this pullback than other bottom-fishers.
Signal 1 indicates that the 'selling' is nearing its end.
Signal 2 shows signs that 'grabbing shares' is making a comeback.
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$AAVE
A small whale🐳 withdrew a total of 8015 AAVE from Cionbase in three transactions yesterday.
A small whale🐳 withdrew a total of 8015 AAVE from Cionbase in three transactions yesterday.
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$AAVE
The whale holding 130,000 AAVE is back! Really frustrating!
The day before yesterday, deposited 19,592 to the exchange.
Yesterday, deposited 6,542 to the exchange.
Today continues, deposit amount is 3,850.
Can't they just dump it all at once?
The whale holding 130,000 AAVE is back! Really frustrating!
The day before yesterday, deposited 19,592 to the exchange.
Yesterday, deposited 6,542 to the exchange.
Today continues, deposit amount is 3,850.
Can't they just dump it all at once?
See original
$AAVE
Yesterday, a large holder deposited 19,592 AAVE to the exchange around 15:18 Beijing time, and then again deposited 6,542 AAVE. As soon as he made a deposit last night, the price began to drop, showing clear signs of selling. Today, it is very likely that the same scenario from last night will play out again.
It is known that this large holder still has over 130,000 AAVE, with a cost of about 89 USD. If he continues to sell, the short-term trend for AAVE is likely to be pessimistic.
Yesterday, a large holder deposited 19,592 AAVE to the exchange around 15:18 Beijing time, and then again deposited 6,542 AAVE. As soon as he made a deposit last night, the price began to drop, showing clear signs of selling. Today, it is very likely that the same scenario from last night will play out again.
It is known that this large holder still has over 130,000 AAVE, with a cost of about 89 USD. If he continues to sell, the short-term trend for AAVE is likely to be pessimistic.
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$AAVE
7 hours ago, a major investor deposited 19,592 AAVE into Binance, around 5:00 PM. Starting from 5:00 PM, AAVE began to steadily decline, with very obvious signs of selling. A rough estimate shows that the trading volume of AAVE is about 4,000 per hour, and the normal trading volume over 7 hours is approximately 28,000. However, the recent trading volume over the last 7 hours is about 37,000. This means that the major investor may have completed selling 9,000 AAVE. Of course, this is just a simple estimation; we cannot know exactly how much they sold. This is why AAVE is so weak tonight.
7 hours ago, a major investor deposited 19,592 AAVE into Binance, around 5:00 PM. Starting from 5:00 PM, AAVE began to steadily decline, with very obvious signs of selling. A rough estimate shows that the trading volume of AAVE is about 4,000 per hour, and the normal trading volume over 7 hours is approximately 28,000. However, the recent trading volume over the last 7 hours is about 37,000. This means that the major investor may have completed selling 9,000 AAVE. Of course, this is just a simple estimation; we cannot know exactly how much they sold. This is why AAVE is so weak tonight.
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$AAVE
This morning I checked AAVE v3 and found that the borrowing interest for USDC had skyrocketed to 65%, as USDC seemed to have been fully borrowed. So I went on-chain to check. An account with a deposit of 4000 cbBTC borrowed 99 million USDC from the AAVE V3 protocol...
He may have realized that he borrowed too much, leading to a sharp decline in USDC reserves, which triggered the spike in borrowing interest. So, 30 minutes ago, he returned the 99 million USDC.
the AAVE protocol is increasingly favored by large whales, and the traditional financial market should find it hard to imagine a borrowing amount of 100 million being completed in seconds, without manual review. The interest rate adjustments also do not require monthly meetings for discussions; the pre-set automated program continuously monitors the reserves and adjusts the borrowing interest rate in real-time.
just use aave!
This morning I checked AAVE v3 and found that the borrowing interest for USDC had skyrocketed to 65%, as USDC seemed to have been fully borrowed. So I went on-chain to check. An account with a deposit of 4000 cbBTC borrowed 99 million USDC from the AAVE V3 protocol...
He may have realized that he borrowed too much, leading to a sharp decline in USDC reserves, which triggered the spike in borrowing interest. So, 30 minutes ago, he returned the 99 million USDC.
the AAVE protocol is increasingly favored by large whales, and the traditional financial market should find it hard to imagine a borrowing amount of 100 million being completed in seconds, without manual review. The interest rate adjustments also do not require monthly meetings for discussions; the pre-set automated program continuously monitors the reserves and adjusts the borrowing interest rate in real-time.
just use aave!
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$AAVE
AAVE DAO New Proposal:
Introduce EURC for Aave V3 on the Ethereum and Base chains
Author: @rickydata
Date: 2024-10-26
Summary: This TEMP CHECK proposal adds EURC or any other euro-based stablecoin.
I want to first ask a broader question: There are 8 USD-based stablecoins on Aave V3 Ethereum and 0 euro-tracking stablecoins; is there any specific reason for this? (i.e., regulation)? I live in Europe and spend in euros. It would be great if I could diversify some savings between USD and EUR, but I am surprised that there are no options on Aave. As far as I know, EURC has the same attributes as the widely adopted and very transparent USDC.
The demand for euro stablecoins across the market is growing. A post on October 25 from Our Network about stablecoins highlighted the following: As Circle's EURC supply has increased by over 40% in the past month, euro-pegged stablecoins are on the rise. Base is the main beneficiary, with the value of EURC on-chain growing from $22 million to $48 million. This coincides with Coinbase's efforts to meet MiCA compliance, which Coinbase emphasizes as its differentiator from competitors. What are Aave's lending market plans to allow any euro-based stablecoin to operate?
I am ready ✊ to support this proposal.
I will use my 1000 AAVE on-chain to vote in support!
AAVE DAO New Proposal:
Introduce EURC for Aave V3 on the Ethereum and Base chains
Author: @rickydata
Date: 2024-10-26
Summary: This TEMP CHECK proposal adds EURC or any other euro-based stablecoin.
I want to first ask a broader question: There are 8 USD-based stablecoins on Aave V3 Ethereum and 0 euro-tracking stablecoins; is there any specific reason for this? (i.e., regulation)? I live in Europe and spend in euros. It would be great if I could diversify some savings between USD and EUR, but I am surprised that there are no options on Aave. As far as I know, EURC has the same attributes as the widely adopted and very transparent USDC.
The demand for euro stablecoins across the market is growing. A post on October 25 from Our Network about stablecoins highlighted the following: As Circle's EURC supply has increased by over 40% in the past month, euro-pegged stablecoins are on the rise. Base is the main beneficiary, with the value of EURC on-chain growing from $22 million to $48 million. This coincides with Coinbase's efforts to meet MiCA compliance, which Coinbase emphasizes as its differentiator from competitors. What are Aave's lending market plans to allow any euro-based stablecoin to operate?
I am ready ✊ to support this proposal.
I will use my 1000 AAVE on-chain to vote in support!
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$AAVE
The large holder who is heavily leveraged on AAVE has taken new actions (his last operation was on October 14). Just 40 minutes ago, he borrowed $600,000 from the AAVE protocol and spent $75,000 to buy 532 AAVE at an average price of 141. This means he is still continuing to increase his leverage.
If he doesn't act today, his liquidation price should be around $106. Assuming he continues to buy AAVE at 141, according to my estimation, he can use $600,000 to purchase a total of 4,255 AAVE, thereby raising his liquidation price to $111.5. The dangerous part is that his position is in a 'visible' state on-chain, which carries the risk of being targeted for liquidation.
The large holder who is heavily leveraged on AAVE has taken new actions (his last operation was on October 14). Just 40 minutes ago, he borrowed $600,000 from the AAVE protocol and spent $75,000 to buy 532 AAVE at an average price of 141. This means he is still continuing to increase his leverage.
If he doesn't act today, his liquidation price should be around $106. Assuming he continues to buy AAVE at 141, according to my estimation, he can use $600,000 to purchase a total of 4,255 AAVE, thereby raising his liquidation price to $111.5. The dangerous part is that his position is in a 'visible' state on-chain, which carries the risk of being targeted for liquidation.
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$AAVE
The big investor who was long AAVE in the on-chain revolving loan waited for a day but did not see a callback. He made a final investment of $1.1 million at a price of 163.
In the end, the on-chain data of the big investor is as follows:
Total holdings: 60,980 aave
Total loan amount: 4.7 million GHO
Health factor: 1.54
Liquidation price: 105.44
The big investor who was long AAVE in the on-chain revolving loan waited for a day but did not see a callback. He made a final investment of $1.1 million at a price of 163.
In the end, the on-chain data of the big investor is as follows:
Total holdings: 60,980 aave
Total loan amount: 4.7 million GHO
Health factor: 1.54
Liquidation price: 105.44
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$AAVE
Continue from the previous one! This morning at about 7:00, the big account recharged 2 million USDC to Coinbase (borrowed from the AAVE protocol)
Just 30 minutes ago, he withdrew 5691 AAVE from Coinbase and pledged it into the AAVE protocol. He currently holds 54039 AAVE in the AAVE protocol, with a health factor of 1.3. The liquidation price of his AAVE position is about $119.
According to estimates, the USDC he rushed into Coinbase has not been used up, and there should be $1.1 million left. He should continue to buy AAVE today.
Personally, I guess this may be a rat warehouse of Trump's Wlfi project. On October 15, the Wlfi token sale may have an institution that promised to buy all unsold tokens to help the project raise $300 million in funds for the "first round of token sales." There is no doubt that the success of this project will inevitably drive the price of AAVE up.
Continue from the previous one! This morning at about 7:00, the big account recharged 2 million USDC to Coinbase (borrowed from the AAVE protocol)
Just 30 minutes ago, he withdrew 5691 AAVE from Coinbase and pledged it into the AAVE protocol. He currently holds 54039 AAVE in the AAVE protocol, with a health factor of 1.3. The liquidation price of his AAVE position is about $119.
According to estimates, the USDC he rushed into Coinbase has not been used up, and there should be $1.1 million left. He should continue to buy AAVE today.
Personally, I guess this may be a rat warehouse of Trump's Wlfi project. On October 15, the Wlfi token sale may have an institution that promised to buy all unsold tokens to help the project raise $300 million in funds for the "first round of token sales." There is no doubt that the success of this project will inevitably drive the price of AAVE up.
See original
$AAVE
I will track this big investor who is long on revolving loans.
He provided 48,347 AAVE in AAVE. And borrowed $4.7 million (GHO), and the current health is 1.16
In the AAVE V3 protocol, the collateral liquidation line of AAVE tokens is 73%. When the AAVE price falls below 133, the net value of the pledged AAVE will be less than 6.43 million, 643x0.73=469.39, which means that his $4.7 million loan will be liquidated!
On-chain data shows that his most recent operation was to transfer 2 million to coinbase. It is highly likely that he will continue to increase his position in AAVE. If he buys at the average price of 152.5, he can buy another 13,114 AAVE.
As he continues to stake these AAVEs, his total AAVE stake will reach 48347+13114=61461
The liquidation line will drop to $104.62.
The question is, do you think he will be liquidated?
I will track this big investor who is long on revolving loans.
He provided 48,347 AAVE in AAVE. And borrowed $4.7 million (GHO), and the current health is 1.16
In the AAVE V3 protocol, the collateral liquidation line of AAVE tokens is 73%. When the AAVE price falls below 133, the net value of the pledged AAVE will be less than 6.43 million, 643x0.73=469.39, which means that his $4.7 million loan will be liquidated!
On-chain data shows that his most recent operation was to transfer 2 million to coinbase. It is highly likely that he will continue to increase his position in AAVE. If he buys at the average price of 152.5, he can buy another 13,114 AAVE.
As he continues to stake these AAVEs, his total AAVE stake will reach 48347+13114=61461
The liquidation line will drop to $104.62.
The question is, do you think he will be liquidated?