In the current market structure, the entire altcoin trend is weak, but compared with the structure in 2019, the altcoin adjustment may be coming to an end, and the altcoin season is about to come.

We can see from the figure that the altcoins in the crypto market performed strongly in the 2021 bull market, but their performance has been weak recently. The market value of Bitcoin has gradually surpassed the altcoins in the long term, and this trend is particularly evident in 2023 and 2024.

Combined with the current market structure, it can be inferred that the altcoins have undergone a long period of adjustment, similar to the situation in 2019
The bottom of the 2018 bear market and the Bitcoin season in 2019 marked in the figure, the performance of altcoins in the early stage of Bitcoin's rise was also relatively weak, and it was not until the end of the adjustment that a strong rebound came. Therefore, the current trend of altcoins may be approaching the end of the adjustment, and the market may be about to enter the "altcoin season", which means that altcoins may usher in a new wave of rising prices.#BTC#ETH#ETF#非农就业数据即将公布 #美联储何时降息？ #新币挖矿DOGS #MtGox钱包动态 #新币挖矿TON

Miners' income is often seen as an indicator of market health. When income declines, it may trigger investor concerns that miners' selling will have a negative impact on prices. This shift in sentiment could lead to a decline in investor confidence, further depressing market prices.

Bitcoin miners faced their most challenging revenue month of the year in August 24, marking the lowest revenue since September 2023. On-chain fees collected in August also declined, down $4.14 million from July, a new low since last year. We all know that miners' income mainly comes from two parts: one is the mining reward, which is the Bitcoin reward after successfully mining a new block; the other is the transaction fee on the chain, which is the fee paid by users when transferring Bitcoin.

This situation can be understood as miners working hard but earning less than ever before, which puts them under great pressure. The decline in miners' income may put some higher-cost miners under greater operating pressure and even exit the market.

In the history of Bitcoin, miners' income fluctuates, sometimes increasing significantly due to rising Bitcoin prices or active transactions; miners "earned less and spent more" in August, and encountered great income pressure. It's like a period of time in a year when business is particularly quiet, and the money earned is not enough to pay bills and employee wages. This situation may affect the stability of the Bitcoin network, because if the number of miners decreases, the difficulty of mining may increase, and the security of the network will also be affected.#BTC#ETH#ETF

#非农就业数据即将公布 #美联储何时降息？ #BNBChainMemeCoin

At present, 3-6 months old coins of Bitcoin account for more than 12.5% ​​of the circulating supply, indicating that investors who have entered the market in the past half year (including the inflow of US ETFs) are still optimistic about the trend of Bitcoin in the second half of the year, and its structure is similar to The sell-off period in mid-2021 is also similar to what happened at the peak of the bear market in 2018.
From the chart below we see: A high proportion of 3 to 6 month holders means more Bitcoins have been accumulated in a shorter period of time, which may indicate that the market is in a critical period. Of course, we must also note that if these holders choose to take profits or stop loss selling, it may have a significant impact on the market price.

The peak of the bear market in 2018-2019:
At the peak of the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin prices plummeted and the market experienced extreme panic. The proportion of Bitcoin held for 3 to 6 months also reached a relatively high point during this period.
This period is characterized by the transfer of large amounts of Bitcoin from long-term to short-term holders, which then leads to further selling as the price continues to fall. Subsequently, Bitcoin once again experienced the 312 washout and ushered in a bull market.
2021-2022 mid-term sell-off period:
In mid-2021, Bitcoin prices experienced a sharp correction after experiencing a rapid rise. At this time, the proportion of Bitcoin held for 3 to 6 months also increased significantly, indicating that some investors entered the market when the price rose, but quickly turned into potential sellers when the price fell back, leading to further market selling. Subsequently, Bitcoin ushered in the famous 519 washout, once again starting the second half of the bull market.#BTC#ETF#ETH#Bitcoin #

#美联储何时降息？ #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落

Long-term Bitcoin holders have slowed their selling significantly, and with only a small portion of the LTH supply in "loss", long-term holders are currently unlikely to experience another panic sell-off, favoring Bitcoin's rise.
From the picture below we see,
If we divide the LTH supply into “profitable” and “losing” tokens, we can see the following:
Over 78% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is held in LTH.
Only 5% of the supply is “in the red.”
Over 73% of supply is “profitable”
When only a small number of long-term holders are at a loss, it means that most long-term holders' positions are priced lower than the current market price, meaning they are still profitable. This usually reflects their confidence in the market's prospects.
When most LTH is in profit, they usually do not sell their Bitcoin easily because they believe the price may continue to rise. The behavior of such holders usually supports market prices. #BTC☀ #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 #美联储何时降息？ #杰克逊霍尔年会

Compared with the interest rate cut cycle of 2019-2020, Bitcoin will still be turbulent and there may be a wash. There is a possibility of a second retracement. The first interest rate cut began on July 31, 2019. This round of interest rate cuts is also the first and only interest rate cut cycle experienced by Bitcoin and the crypto market. The trend of Bitcoin prices, Nasdaq index and gold prices is shown in the figure below. Before the last interest rate cut (2020/3/15), Bitcoin had the well-known 312 crash, and the global market was also in mourning. But at this time, the Federal Reserve had already lowered the interest rate to 0.00% -0.25%, so it adopted a super-large-scale quantitative easing policy, and eventually liquidity overflowed to the crypto market, triggering the big bull market in 2021.#BTC#ETH#CPI#降息 #美国CPI数据即将公布 #美联储何时降息？ #加密市场反弹

Long-term Bitcoin holders have slowed their selling significantly, with total holdings climbing by 550,000 BTC since July 1. It shows that long-term holders are not selling too many tokens at the moment. This tells us that seller selling pressure has decreased, but it does not necessarily mean that buyer demand has increased!
Comparing the past history of 2013, 2018, 2019, and 2021-2022, if over a period of time, the selling behavior of long-term holders gradually decreases and begins to return to the holding state, it may indicate that the market is close to a bottom, or a downward trend may be Near the end.
At present, the market is blocked from reaching 62,000. The market trend may fluctuate and recover, and the selling pressure may be weakening. However, the "Return to HoDLing" behavior of long-term holders has not yet begun to increase. If we cannot see long-term holders The large-scale return to HoDLing has formed an upward momentum. At present, there is still the possibility of a second dip in the market.#BTC#ETH#Bitcoin#CPI

$BTC #美联储何时降息？ #加密市场反弹 #美国7月非农就业增长放缓

The market panicked in the short term and sold their coins at low prices, a sell-off that was on the same scale as previous bear market lows, including the wild sell-off that occurred in March 2020. So from the chart, we can see that this may be a bargain hunting low and a good trading opportunity.
1. In early 2018, global stock markets were affected by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and the risk of trade wars. Bitcoin began to fall sharply after peaking in January 2018, falling to approximately $3,000 by the end of the year.

2. The COVID-19 market crashed in March 2020, and the S&P 500 index fell by approximately 34% in March 2020. Global markets generally fell amid a liquidity crunch and risk aversion. Bitcoin experienced the famous 312 cut in half.

3. U.S. stocks and other global markets also experienced significant adjustments in early 2022. The S&P 500 has retreated approximately 10%-15% from its highs over the same period. Bitcoin fell from a high of around $69,000 in late 2021 to around $30,000 in early 2022.#BTC#ETH #Bitcoin

#加密市场反弹 #美联储何时降息？

This is a painful lesson, the sharp drop in futures open interest marks a massive cleanup of fast speculative funds, which were massively cleaned up last month due to Ethereum ETFs buying hype and Trump conference buying through FOMO. This is a huge statistical deleveraging event, indicating that most futures leverage is now gone. Therefore, we should pay more attention to the low-price bargain hunting opportunities that appear in the spot in the coming weeks.#BTC#ETH#Bitcoin
#BTC走势分析