Beware of Bitcoin Profit Taking

The U.S. presidential election will soon have a large amount of data released, and as each polling station closes, the market's bets on the red and blue sides will soon be revealed!

1: If Trump is leading and shows signs of a winning chance, the Bitcoin market will further rise, at least emotionally pushing the price to continue to rise. This morning’s increase is the best proof. Moreover, the previous rises in gold, the U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and Bitcoin to some extent have been based on the belief that Trump’s victory would lead to them rising.‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍

2: If Trump's support rate is not as "far ahead" as the market expects, showing anxiety or trailing Harris, then the previously hesitant profit takers will accelerate their exit. No one wants to wait until the gun goes off to run, which will trigger a profit-taking exit in the short term.‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍

In other words, under the influence of emotions, the price of Bitcoin will experience severe fluctuations in the near future. Both bulls and bears are waiting for the final victor. Even if Trump comes to power, I don't think Bitcoin will continue to rise significantly. Instead, I lean towards the idea that Bitcoin will take the opportunity to suppress high-position buyers, leading to a significant decline before rebounding after washing out the market.

Therefore, at the current price of Bitcoin 71300-71400, I have no reason or intention to chase long positions. I suggest going short at the current price of 71300-71400, with a stop loss at 72300, and a target to be determined.

Furthermore, last night's short position at 70000-70200 gave a profit down to 68700, providing over a thousand points. I have been monitoring and providing alerts early in the morning, making sure to either reduce positions or set a breakeven stop loss, and there have been profits. At least I have always emphasized this kind of operational thinking and methods of reducing positions and moving stop losses for protection.

Let me summarize the voting times for the U.S. presidential election for everyone: (Beijing time)

1. November 5 (Tuesday)
1:00 PM Two small towns in New Hampshire begin voting, marking the official start of the election! (Mainly serves to test the market's reaction)

7:00 PM Various polling places on the East Coast of the United States begin to open, and voters can line up to vote in person.

2. November 6 (Wednesday)

8:30 AM - 10:00 AM The critical seven swing states start voting. Both the Democratic and Republican parties have their own fixed voter bases, and the goal is to gain the support of the swing states. Voting in the swing states will be completed during this time period, and the key market movements will occur in the morning.

9:00 AM Voting ends in Pennsylvania, with 19 votes out of 93 from the seven swing states, a crucial battleground. Harris has visited this state more than 20 times this year, and Trump has also campaigned here multiple times, highlighting the importance of Pennsylvania!

After 12:00 PM Beijing time on November 6, the results from each state will be announced, making the national vote count clearer. Until December 11, each state will certify the vote results, and on December 17, the Electoral College will hold a meeting to cast the official votes. Congress will convene on January 6, 2025, and on January 20, the new president will take the oath of office at the White House and “get to work”!

How can Bitcoin not be shorted at 70,000? My plan for this wave is to hold short positions for the medium to long term. The US election has been quite chaotic these past few days, and Bitcoin has been fluctuating around 67,000-69,000 for a few days. Currently, many people in the market seem to think that Trump is stable? Everyone is shouting that Bitcoin is going to skyrocket again.

What I have to say is: regardless of who is elected in the end, once the election is finalized, both Bitcoin and gold, as well as the US stock market, will face a significant crash, and it will be a sustained one! This is the so-called buy the expectation and sell the fact!

For this wave, I am looking at a bearish trend for the medium to long term, with a target range of 63,000-60,000, and the extreme set at 55,000-56,000.

So, for those who currently have no positions, what should they do? I suggest that you can short directly at the current price of 69,600!

The non-farm payrolls on Friday gave a three-win sequence with at least 1500 points per order. However, since Saturday until today, I've been alternating between winning one and losing one at a 50% rhythm. The market trends are also fluctuating, rising for a while then falling, rising again and then falling, going back and forth. It seems that frequent short-term trading is not suitable for me; I should stick to larger trend trades. The current plan is to set up a short position on Bitcoin at 69700-70000. Just now, I entered a short position between 70000-70200, and if I ran at 69300, I re-entered. If I didn’t run, I’ll hold on to it.

Bitcoin, must be shorted above 70,000, short at 70,200-70,400, stop loss at 71,200, target 66,000-63,000, nothing much to say, even if the previous order has stopped loss, you must short again. The previous order stop loss is just a tie! Now do it again. Aggressive 70,000 directly short

I don't want to say Ethereum, there is nothing to do, anyway, you can short it!

It's the election, the good news is bad news, no matter who is elected, who is ahead, there must be a sharp drop.

The tremor is intense! It's a bit difficult to play! First, the short positions at 69500 and 69000 directly aimed for a stop at 67000, which is at least a 2000-point drop, no problem, right? Then the earlier suggested long position at 67000-66800, this long position was called to close at 68000 in the morning, also with a 1000-point gain.

Short position entered at 68000, stop loss at 68700 for 700 points.

U.S. elections, a major wash in the U.S., causing frequent up and down fluctuations!

Now Bitcoin's rebound is approaching the daily MA5 resistance near 68800, entering a short position at the current price, stop loss at 69600, target at 67100-66000.

Bitcoin 69500, short target 69000 to 67300-67000, directly stop profit, take 2000-2500 points.

According to the previous recommendation to go long at 67000-66800, now 66800 has taken another thousand points. Close position.

Lao Xiao suggests continuing to short at the current price of 68000, stop loss at 68700, target 66666-66000.

Bitcoin short at 69500, add to short at 69000-68888, first target precisely reached at 67300, over 2000 points!

Perhaps the biggest black swan this year could be the US election! I suggest that all long positions should be canceled for now! Yesterday, Bitcoin's planned entry point of over 67,000 was missed, and it bounced back to 69,500, so since it wasn't entered yesterday, the current plan is to cancel it. However, today I continue to short at 69,500-69,200-68,888! If tomorrow brings a strong market, a rapid drop like on August 5th or September 6th, where it falls 5,000-10,000 points breaking below 63,000-60,000, is also possible! Therefore, whether from a technical perspective or news events, the price around 69,000 should not be blindly bought at this time. Last week's spike and retreat, combined with the fact that the market hasn't held up for long whenever it comes back to this level in the past six months, indicates that it will quickly come down again, and likely in a sharp drop!

From yesterday to today, Bitcoin's trades have had two wins and one loss. In the past, Lao Xiao basically didn't make trades or give advice on weekends, but this time at around 2 AM, I wrote a very detailed analysis and suggestions, and also provided two direct trade recommendations. What’s frustrating is that the analysis at 2 AM suggested closing the short position and waiting to go long at 67,000, but it didn’t get there, then it rebounded by 1,000 U to around 68,700 before going short again. Those who normally used stop losses got swept out, then it fell back to 68,200. Early in the morning, I suggested going short at 69,500, which was precisely at the highest point! Now it has already moved 1,000 points! In the afternoon, I published another article suggesting to go short directly around 69,000, and again it was a successful entry!

The daily chart shows a dead cross, so first pay attention to the support around the daily midline at 67,500-67,300. Therefore, my suggestion is that today if it reaches 67,000-66,800-66,666-66,400, you can enter long in batches, with each position having a stop loss set at 800 U, with the target to be determined.

Sorry, this order has stopped out. After breaking below 68500 yesterday, it rebounded to 68500-68500 shorts could catch a wave down to exactly 67500. If it rebounds again and breaks the afternoon high of 68700, it would be a trap for shorts. Now I will wait for the weekly close before making further plans. At this position, I still expect there will be a pullback!

But at the moment, I do not recommend chasing long positions. I still expect a pullback this week and will wait to buy again below 67000!

Now Bitcoin is short at 68650, stop loss at 69300, target 67300-67000

If it falls back to 67000-66500, long orders will be arranged.

The specific analysis viewpoints have been detailed in the previous article.

The weekly and daily trends of Bitcoin are not optimistic. Short on the rebound!

Now short on the rebound at 68500-68600, stop loss at 69300, target at 66800-66500.

Recently, Bitcoin has been affected by the uncertainty risk of the US presidential election. After a rise at the beginning of the week, bulls chose to take profits and exit, creating selling pressure. The daily line has been continuously falling from above 73000, and the October non-farm payrolls were a surprise, with market expectations becoming mere decorations, as only 12,000 jobs were added. What a joke! Wall Street investment banks have been less accurate in predicting non-farm payrolls than monkeys throwing darts for the past two years!

Technically, Bitcoin is still just adjusting. The decline is actually another opportunity for long-term Bitcoin investors to re-enter the market before the end of the year. However, it's not the time to rush in directly. The short-term bull structure has been damaged, and the daily line has formed a death cross, so one needs to adjust their thinking and direction.

If this adjustment is a bit stronger, the weekly line may need to pull back to the 66500-66000 area before it stops. Currently, the first position for a long trade can only be arranged at 66200-66100, with a stop loss at 65400 and a target at 67600.

Another position to go long is at 64600-64400. For now, one can only short on the rebound!

Weekend, another short position of 800 points! It is expected that the weekend market will not be too volatile, with a correction trend. Continue to focus on the support area of 69000-68600 below.

For short-term operations, you can go long if it retraces to 69400-69200 and continue to enter the market.

Short positions can be taken when the rebound approaches around 70500-70800.

The focus for the weekend market is short-term operations, with stop losses set properly, as next week will be centered on the US elections.

Have you slept? Come on, let's do a deal! Since there's another pullback giving an opportunity, Lao Xiao suggests entering long again! Buy around the current price of 69100, stop loss at 58400, target 70400-71000

Ethereum at 2510, stop loss at 2465, target 2570-2610

Bitcoin is now at 71500. This morning and afternoon, I called for 59400-59300 twice. The target is 71200 or above. Now it is here! Reduce the position at 1800-2000 points, and then move the stop loss up to 69800. This way, this order is completely invincible!

In the morning, someone criticized me for not reminding him. I analyzed and gave this order in advance. It was another long article about triggers. Later, I asked how to set stop loss. After the order was profitable, I asked how to change the stop loss protection and where to reduce or close the position! Nothing to say, right?

Is this non-farm data unbelievable? The difference is so big! Anyway, this afternoon, Lao Xiao called for Bitcoin longs at 69400-69300, which has now gained 1000 points, so you can move up the stop loss for protection. Don't say I didn't remind you, and then some people come to criticize like this morning! The ultra-short-term target looks at the 70800-71200 area for reducing positions. Pay attention to the resistance level at 71200-71500 above.