Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise, wrote on the X platform that the past year's Bitcoin investment has been frustrating. Throughout the history of Bitcoin, various mechanisms have artificially brought forward future demand. The culprit is Grayscale GBTC. As hedge funds trade at a premium, GBTC has brought forward tens of billions of dollars of future demand. But there are other mechanisms, including the bankruptcy of Mt.Gox and the confiscated Bitcoins of Silk Road. These "lock boxes" keep the price of Bitcoin higher than the price of the free-flowing market, which is good, but these assets are now being unlocked, thanks to ETFs and the passage of time. As a result, Bitcoin must attract tens of billions of dollars in new demand to maintain the status quo. The market has now eliminated most of the outstanding issues, such as the stabilization of GBTC assets, but it has not yet eliminated all outstanding issues, which has caused pressure on today's market.

It has been a long time since I updated. Many friends asked me what happened. The market fell so sharply for no reason. In fact, the only thing I can think of is that this may be a political conspiracy. After all, Trump supports cryptocurrencies so much and has bought a lot of cryptocurrencies himself. It is reported that Trump's account has been cut by 55% and many institutions have to short Bitcoin to prove Trump's unwise choice. Because of the political struggle, we have become victims of left and right. We have to look at the face of the Americans every time. We thought that the currency circle could get rid of the manipulation of the Americans. We were originally advantageous but were ruthlessly pushed to the American Chinese food. Let's say which currency circle is not led by Chinese people. Is the world's No. 1 exchange of a certain An exchange Chinese? OK? Huobi? Gate? Which top mining is not Chinese? Many of the well-known public chains are actually Chinese. Then the Chinese people say that they don't play Chinese games. I am very curious why we Chinese are so worshipful of foreigners. What is not good about Chinese people? Sometimes I get angry when I think about it. Hey, it's just like the abnormality of BNB this time. It's speechless. It was cut in half in the four days of mining. It didn't rise as much as Bitcoin, and it fell more than Bitcoin and ETH. OK has had such a big thing recently. Binance will be fine, right? Moreover, every time I log in to my account, it shows that my ID card has expired, which makes me feel very suspicious. I have submitted it and it has been under review. I asked others and they are all the same as me. If you have the same situation, please leave a message. After all, my identity certificate has not expired. Why does Binance have this BUG recently? The previous BUG was that when I woke up, there were only four mainstream coins left in my selected coins, and the others were gone. Others said it was a BUG, ​​so there was nothing wrong. Recently, my account has always been abnormal. If there is any abnormality, you can leave a message to communicate #美联储利率决策即将公布 #BNB

#meme板块关注热点 $Fans recently asked me why I was so accurate in NOT trading. I posted the news the day before the rise, and then it continued to rise. For the analysis, you can go to my homepage and look back at the article on the 26th. Today, I want to talk about which layouts have advantages in the future, or whether the market will continue to rise or fall. I think that without much impact, it should be an overall upward shock. At night, AR exploded because the AO blockchain released news that AO tokens will be launched fairly, not sold to VCs, and not used for financing. How to get AO coins is to hold AR to cross the chain to AO, so AR exploded. I have been reminding value coins to be long-term and not to cut meat at the bottom. This wave of AR plummeted, and many brothers were impatient. They cut meat and it went up. It’s a pity. Because it was hacked, the GCR X of 247,900 fans The account was hacked, and the hacked account released promotional content for ORDI and luna2.0. Luna2.0 rose an astonishing 274%, and ORDI also rose 15%. At present, it is still dominated by long and short battles. The probability of returning to liquidity orientation in the short term is quite large. Therefore, the larger the clearing space, the more chances of attracting the main force to promote in this direction. From the perspective of tariffs, it is still optimistic at present, but it is obvious that the sentiment is all about meme, not other copycats. Many people think it is a high point, but from a long-term and overall perspective, now is also a very low time to buy the bottom, unless there is a black swan event. It is expected that the black swan event will occur in mid-to-late June-August, so long-term users can buy the bottom. There is not much time to enter in the later stage, and there are not many opportunities to wait for a big drop. Pay attention to my next issue to show you how to layout potential currencies. You are also welcome to leave a message about the currency. I will analyze your currency in detail $SOL #NOT#ORDI#LUNA#TRU#AR

TON Summer? My opinion on $NOT and $TON

CEX: $NOT is available for trading on exchanges such as Binance, OKX and Bybit.

DEX: Available for trading on TON's decentralized exchanges Ston.fi and DeDust.

Comparison of Notcoin with other MEME tokens

1. Large base of real participating users: 13 million unique Notcoin user addresses received $NOT . (Unique addresses: users who connected their TON wallets, invited friends, completed tasks and participated in social activities)

2. Comparison with other MEME tokens

$DOGE: 4.8 million holders, market value of $21.8 billion.

$SHIB: 1.4 million holders, market value of $13.6 billion.

$PEPE: 217,000 holders, market value of $3.61 billion.

$WIF: 137,000 holders, market value of $3.1 billion.
$BONK: 721,000 holders, market value of $1.57 billion.

The number of holders, $NOT , ranks first, but the market value is very low, only $530 million. Compared with other meme coins, NOT has a promising future.
The impact of $NOT on TON
1. $NOT is the largest token release event in the history of the TON ecosystem. Backed by a large number of telegram users, it is directly listed on Binance and OKX and other large exchanges. If there is another Upbit, it will be another step. Of course, this is also an expectation. If there is an expectation, there will be room.

2. Catalyst of TON ecosystem
Notcoin can be said to be the first battle of TON ecosystem, and then as a catalyst for TON ecosystem.

It is also common to cultivate TON ecosystem through Notcoin, and it is also common for users to actively explore other early projects of TON ecosystem through Notcoin.

The "bullish" of TON ecology is still in the early stages of TON ecology, but the signs of "bullish" have already appeared:

Support from giants. Giants such as Animoca and Pantera are investing in TON, and Pantera's Dan Morehead even said "This is our largest investment so far": Telegram is a community that integrates blockchain technology, which must be easier. This is Pantera's largest investment ever in TON recently. Of course, the "easier" here is also what I think in my heart.

Summary: The "appearance" of $NOT is spectacular, but what I expect more is that the price of $NOT can be stabilized. After all, the reputation of bringing wealth creation effect will be very important for consolidating TON's position in the entire industry.The journey of TON ecosystem has just begun, and $NOT is just the beginning. #ton#NOT策略

Analyzing the trends of several currencies
AVAX is entering a bullish sector and investors are gathering to buy this token. The 10 and 20 site moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicates that the altcoin is experiencing a wave of buying frenzy. A descending triangle potential pattern is also visible in the chart, which sets the resistance level at $39.02. This means that the AVAX price has the potential to break through $40 in the next few days. If Avalanche Coin successfully breaks through the resistance zone of $39.02, its target price will reach $54.82.
Pendle is also jointly purchased by many institutions, and there is also a link oracle. If you want to hold the currency for a long time and are optimistic about the results after one year, it is recommended to take TON, TOKEN, ONDO. If you want to know how your currency is, you can leave a message and I will analyze your currency
#ContentStar# #Bitcoin# #BountyCreator#机构积极投资比特币ETF

Many people asked me today, why do I predict that Ethereum will fall next, and where will it fall? Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, posted on the X platform that Ethereum will fall to $2,500. He published another article on 10x Research on May 6, pointing out that Ethereum's weak fundamentals have hindered the development of Bitcoin. He also pointed out that the correlation between Bitcoin and Ethereum is increasing. I think the reason why Ethereum should fall is that it has been sucked blood by other altcoins recently. During the period of volatility, plus the positive turning into negative, it will definitely take time to pull back, but this pullback is only temporary. If you need to ask about the fundamentals of which coin, you can leave a message. I will seriously reply to the situation of the currency you need to know, and which point and time point may be better. Since my Binance is urged to update every day, I look forward to more people leaving messages to communicate #ETH

Recently, many people have urged me to update my Binance Square. I am a casual person. Let me talk about the main reasons for the recent decline in the market, as well as the future trends and directions? What currency is safer to ambush next? Many people believe that the reason for the recent decline is: the decline in the past two days is mainly due to Grayscale's withdrawal of the Auntie Futures ETF + the U.S. House of Representatives voted to overturn SEC rules to prevent strictly regulated financial companies from holding BTC and cryptocurrencies, but for the old people in the currency circle, they all know that this is definitely a smokescreen. It is a matter of time. Later, JPMorgan Chase said that the U.S. SEC's recent Wells Notice to Robinhood Crypto regarding suspected unregistered securities issuance is unlikely to hinder the potential approval of the spot Ethereum ETF. "In our view, the Wells Notice should not have any impact on the U.S. SEC's final approval of the spot Ethereum ETF," JPMorgan analysts wrote in a report on Wednesday. It constitutes an obstacle. Although it may not be approved as early as this month. So we are all adults, and we must learn to think more. These are obviously weapons that will control the trend in the future. Many people naively think that the SEC will not kill Ethereum with one stick. How is it possible? Just like the Federal Reserve, it is just a weapon to make a game back and forth. As for the news, it is also a weapon to make a game. The most important thing is that it should fall when it should fall. Otherwise, how can it cooperate with the news to pull the market in the later stage? It is impossible to keep rising, right? Then when to rise and when to fall must depend on the combination of K-line and news. This sentence is very profound, please understand more. For example, it has been relatively recently. TRB is so popular, is it really because of good news or news? No, it just happened to be almost washed out, and now the market has not shown any signs of improvement, so it is unique to show off at this time. Looking at its previous trading methods, it is exactly the same. Once the market comes, it will fall to the bottom, and then it will be trapped at the top of the mountain, and continue to wait for the next opportunity to pull up and sell. K-line is an auxiliary tool, which is to see how many people it has trapped, at what point it is suitable for ambush, and then combined with whether there will be good news in the future, you can place orders in advance to ambush, and you need to combine the two to catch prey#山寨币热点 #TRB走势预测

There is no metaphysics and I am not joking with you. Such a nonsensical and magical thing actually happened to me, a professional analyst. When I woke up yesterday, there were only these four currencies left in my self-selected stocks. Yesterday, I joked with my friends that this was God's hint that the next fall would come? Let me clear my position or temporarily buy only these four currencies. Then my friend said that this is a bug in Binance. Binance sometimes does this. I don't know if my friends have such an experience. Then it fell today. I am still hesitating whether to follow God's instructions and temporarily change to the above currencies. It means that the trend may not follow my last analysis. According to the normal logic of the currency circle, it will rise in the first half of the month and fall in the second half of the month. This is a relatively normal logic. If it follows its instructions, it should fall during this period, and then rise for three or four days in the middle, and fall around May 19th. Adjust the previous segment, that is, it may fall for a while recently. This metaphysics makes me almost unsolvable. As a professional analyst, I was actually made nonsensical by this metaphysics for the first time. Is there any master who can point out the way, whether to believe in yourself or the arrangement of fate on the road of life. . #Friend.tech前景预测 , the outlook is expected to fall, #Meme币你看好哪一个？ is optimistic about #WIF王者归来 , #BTC走势分析 will fall recently #以太坊ETF批准预期 should pass

Why did I clear my BNB position again? Relatively speaking, I sold it at the highest point again. It is very simple that the overall market will fall again. What is the reason?
First of all, because the AI ​​sector has already risen in advance, the positive news after May 22 has been released in advance. The Ethereum series that will rise next has also risen a few days ago. There are not many positive news at present. In addition, the deep correction on May 19 is imminent, so it should be a volatile market recently. First of all, the overall market is volatile upward before the 10th, and then it is volatile downward on the 10th. Then it will rise around the 19th and then fall deeply on the 19th. It is estimated that most of it will be corrected around the 22nd. Therefore, it is suitable to do bands recently, especially those on the increase list. If the increase only rises for one day on the same day, see if it is a future trend. If it is a trend, you can still decisively enter the next day and eat 10%-20% points. Some currencies will continue to rise on the third and fourth days. Normally, you can sell them on the fifth day. Even if you sell them, it has nothing to do with you.
Follow me, and I will share how to buy which currencies, at which time point it is relatively suitable, and how to arrange positions more appropriately.

Many people think that this drop is because of CZ, but is CZ's 4-month sentence good news or a drop? Yesterday at 3 a.m., the news came out, and I said that it would still drop. Normally, it might drop on May 1 and May 2, and then it might pull back a little on May 3. Don't think about it. The market will not be much better before the end of May. And this drop is not because of CZ, but more of the actual macro reasons. BlackRock has had 0 consecutive inflows of funds, and the US hawks have caused insufficient liquidity. Hong Kong's ETFs are still coming to take over the US market. You can see how fierce the game between institutions is. Today, US stocks, US bonds, and gold are all falling. It depends on tomorrow's data release. Although the short-term market may further trade the combination of "stagflation + high interest rates", there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the interest rate cuts and economic performance throughout 2024. At present, the probability of a full-year interest rate cut may be compressed to 25BP, but the probability of no interest rate cuts is still small. The Federal Reserve, which relies on data, is likely to turn to a hawkish attitude at the FOMC meeting in early May and lower the dot plot. However, the monthly reduction plan of quantitative tightening (QT) may still proceed as planned to prevent the market from facing sudden liquidity pressure.
At present, the market is still pricing in the narrative of "secondary inflation". The spontaneous tightening brought about by this transaction may tighten demand and suppress prices in the medium term. Therefore, we believe that there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the medium-term price level and interest rate cuts. The current one interest rate cut in the third quarter may be the baseline, and in an optimistic scenario, there may still be two interest rate cuts throughout the year.

What preparations should you make before the market falls? I basically sold 90% of my positions before I predicted. Some people said that my BNB rose before, but I didn't notice the news of BNB burning that day, but I still followed my prediction. First of all, Bitcoin will definitely break 60,000 this time, and Ethereum will break 3,000, needless to say. The key point is why we need to prepare in advance, because my past experience is to sell before April 28. In May, it will definitely fall overall, with a small rebound in the middle, but the overall trend will remain unchanged. It will not be relieved until June. You can wait for my signal to try to buy the bottom. The reason for my accurate judgment is that the previous few times have been repeatedly back and forth to lure more. I expected that if it rises again, I will sell the chips in my hand. Sure enough, it rose to my prediction, so I sold it in advance and vacated the position to buy the bottom. Don't let individual news affect your judgment, especially the sharp rise of Ethereum DEFI series in the past few days did not move my heart. You must wait for the position you set before you can make a move. In the currency circle for so many years, it is really important to manage emotions and positions, and avoid greed for a while.

#ETH 1671194844#Whatis your investment strategy during market fluctuations? #
Evaluate the performance of projects in this round of bull market so far in your mind:
Best project: Solana; the predicament has been reversed, proving that an ecosystem can be built without the support of FTX, and it has driven the Meme craze, the biggest narrative of this round; alternative BTC, spot ETFs have entered the mainstream financial market, and Bitcoin ecosystem projects and new assets continue to prosper.

Most innovative project: Ethena; among the new projects that appeared in this round, it is neither a meme nor a pure storytelling project, and it is the most impressive project. The innovative product design plus the large track of stablecoins have a promising future.

The most unexpected project: Pendle; a typical case of an old tree blooming with new flowers. The interest rate trading market seems to have a high threshold and a small market audience. Who would have thought that restaking would appear, and combined with point trading, it became the favorite of whales and mathematicians.

Best Chinese Project: CKB; The team has been working hard for six years. Bitcoin's UTXO isomorphic expansion plan is quite innovative, and the issuance of new assets has also gathered market enthusiasm.

So far, in addition to public chains and memes, the newly emerging popular project types are still mainly new DeFi types that meet the asset management needs of large households. Perhaps it is because of the lack of users entering the market. Retail-side similar games and social networking have not seen new hot products.

A worthwhile currency speculation strategy
The currency speculation strategy involves many aspects, including market understanding, digital currency selection, technical analysis, trading skills, risk management, etc.
The following is a detailed introduction:
Market understanding: First, understand the basic situation of the digital currency market, such as the issuance volume, market value, historical price, etc. of digital currencies, which will help predict market trends.
Choose the right digital currency. Study the fundamentals of digital currencies, such as issuers, application scenarios, technical characteristics, etc., and pay attention to news and industry trends of digital currencies, such as policy trends, cooperation projects, market hotspots, etc.
Technical analysis: Use chart tools (such as TradingView) to analyze the historical price, trading volume and other technical indicators of digital currencies, grasp the entry time, conduct trend analysis, volume analysis and indicator application. Trading skills. Set stop-profit and stop-loss, understand trading pairs, grasp trading opportunities, and diversify investments to reduce risks.

Good morning, brothers. Last night, PCE was higher than expected, which dealt another heavy blow to the fragile cryptocurrency market. After the data was released, everyone was asked to reduce their positions to 30%. The US stock market rebounded sharply, but BTC did not follow. BlackRock, the big brother, has not purchased for several days, and ETF funds continue to flow out. The liquidity of the cryptocurrency market is insufficient. According to our on-chain data observation, only 1,000 BTC is needed to make a big hole. Is there any hope next? There is still hope. Let's see whether the heavy data in May can turn the tide: - Non-agricultural data will be released on May 3 - CPI data will be released on May 15 As long as the May data shows that inflation has fallen, the cryptocurrency market will usher in vitality. The fish body has been eaten, but there are still too many thorns in the fish tail, which can easily hurt us. It is a long-term thing to replace the old fish with new fish. There is a big thunder before October: Mentougou's compensation is about to expire, with a total of 80,000. In the near future, it is still mainly based on shock callbacks to prevent BTC from falling to 60,000. #比特币减半 #大盘走势 #

Recently, many people have asked me what I think of BNX and why it has risen? From my perspective of divination, this is very mysterious. BNX was originally incubated by Binance. Now Zhao Changpeng of Binance has had an accident. I use this name to tell you that Binance is still very powerful, including the project side, who are also shouting, Binance is awesome, Binance is awesome, BN is the abbreviation of Binance, and NX is awesome, what else do you think? Pure support for Binance #BNB小餅 #BNX.智能策略库🥇🥇

Those who understand the picture are already old-timers in the cryptocurrency circle. See how high your rank is. Which character are you in the picture?
Bullish views include:
1. Ethereum Prague upgrade (technological innovation) is coming soon
2. Stablecoin inflow hit the third highest level in history last week!
3. Sun Ge and Wu Jihan each bought the bottom of tens of thousands of ETH ETFs and continued to inflow
5. After halving, the annual selling pressure of Bitcoin will be reduced by more than 10 billion
6. Short-term holders of mvrv show that 60,000 is the bottom
7. The cost price of mining machines after halving is around 60,000
8. BlackRock Fed cuts interest rates in June
Bearish views:
1. Halving becomes bearish, large sell-offs and negative financing rates
2. 10K large institutions have cleared their positions and ETF inflows are getting less and less
3. US Q1 GDP is lower than expected, and the core PCE price index rebounded sharply (Jinshi Data APP)
4. Bitcoin may rise weakly and may reach 50,000. It will take a long time to cut interest rates, and the copycat is estimated to fall by 50%
5. The war is not really over yet, and the three wars will collapse
6. The US SEC is expected to reject the application for Ethereum spot ETF
7. Data shows that BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF has been terminated 71 days of continuous capital inflow
As an old man in the cryptocurrency circle, I can only give some advice to newcomers
The first advice
The cryptocurrency market has gone through the period of wild explosion. The next stage is the stage of formal financialization and the stage of capital institutions competing against each other. Don't dream of pinching a coin and making dozens or hundreds of times. According to the current market sentiment, coins that can double ten times are rare.
The second advice
I don't think anyone will tell you that the essence of cryptocurrency speculation lies in rolling positions. For example, if you have 100,000 yuan in capital and fantasize about a 10-fold increase, you have been waiting passively repeatedly. It is better to roll positions, spot rolling positions or low-multiple contract rolling positions. 10 times can be broken down into 2 times * 2 times * 3 times, instead of fantasizing about pulling it to 10 times at one time. In this way, you will consider how to sell at high points and buy at low points, because there have been 3 such opportunities this year, but most people choose to wait and hoard coins, and then be repeatedly driven by the market, and finally return to the price when buying, or fall below, and miss the opportunity to sell at the most advantageous time, wasting time, and time is also a great cost. When aiming for the right time, you still need to learn how to operate a few hands
#BTC回调才会更好的上涨 #Memecoins lead the rise, which meme coin do you think is the best? #

I'm really sorry, someone argued with me yesterday and I had no way to deal with it, but generally speaking Bitcoin was in the red yesterday and it is in the red today. Although I sold it one day in advance because of the strength of my BNB, my friend asked me if it was a pity to sell BNB at 610, as it rose to 618 at its highest. I said let me calculate the increase with you, 618-610=8U, you have 200 BNB, that means you have earned an extra 1600U, but if it falls to 550U, 610-550=60U, that is 60*200=12000U, and it will be more stable. Are you willing to take the risk for that 1600U? And you may not necessarily get the highest point, and then it fell today. Many people say that I am very accurate. Let me say more. I have stepped on the bottom and bought the bottom five times and escaped the top five times in this year. It’s just that many people will think that the signal I released on the day was not very accurate. Then please look at Bitcoin. After all, Bitcoin is a signal light, and there will be a big bloodbath in May, so control your position in advance. The recommended position is 20%. At present, my position is only 10%. 90% position will be bought at the bottom after the trend is clear.

If we follow the previous rules, the market will plunge at the latest in late April and early May. It is better to keep an empty position than to make any transactions at this time. If it goes up, it is other people's business, and if it goes down, it is your business. The currencies that can be bought at the bottom after this plunge
1. AI sector: GPT5 is expected to be released in the middle of summer
Focus on: RNDR, FET, LPT, ARKM, NFP, JASMY, WLD
2. MEME must-have in 2024 (suitable for small funds)
Focus on: PEPE, floki, WIF, SATS (to get rich quickly, you must bear the loss)
The cycle is strong, it is best to only operate twice a year, and leave the capital as soon as you double it, and leave the rest to luck.
3. BTC Ecosystem: Inscription sector has great opportunities in the second half of the year according to the current financing situation
Focus on: STX, ORDI, SATS, MAP, ML, MUBI
4. Solana Ecosystem: Solana Annual Conference is scheduled to be held in September this year
Focus on: SOL, JTO, JUP, PYTH, BOME, BONK
5. New public chain:
Focus on: TIA, SUI, SEI
6. RWA sector: Needless to say, emerging hot spots, institutional layout
Focus on: ONDO, TRU, polyx
7. Game sector:
Focus on: IMX, GALA,

#$BNB Oh, it affects my mood, it's terrible, I typed a bunch of useful words before, but I accidentally deleted them, and now I have to type again, it's a bit annoying
In a word, the market is going to change, and we need to be cautious recently, and wait for opportunities and signals for fluctuations
The following is my actual operation, I bought at almost the lowest point and sold at the highest point, please don't bother me
I just share according to my mood, I'm not in the mood today
Anyway, my divination is still accurate at the moment, I told my friends yesterday that it is expected to fall today
#比特币减半 #大盘走势 #TIA.24小时交易策略 #ORDI💰智能多空策略 #GALA.每日智能策略

It is expected that BNB will break 600 today, and then reach a maximum of 610. This time there will be a deep correction, which may not be a blunt knife, but a sharp knife. This time Bitcoin is halved, and the overall market situation is within my expectations. I stepped on the right four times before. A few days ago, I asked my friends to buy the bottom, and then I said that as long as Bitcoin does not reach 66,000-67,000, the market will still rise. Until today, BTC is still rising. Today, 107 million was liquidated, which shows that there are still many people who are bearish. There is nothing wrong with being bearish, it is just a short-term rise and fall. There must be room for decline later, otherwise it will be difficult for Bitcoin to break 100,000 this year. Everyone should be cautious in buying the bottom. The current recommended position is 40%#比特币减半 #bnb金铲子

4.18
1.$GHST - Aavegotchi announced that $GHST is now live on the Base chain. The team plans to deploy Base's secure layer 3 solution by June
2.$CFG - Centrifuge raises $15 million in Series A funding
3.$APE - Yuga Labs divests some games
4.$OMNI - Omni Network has revealed that Genesis Equity is about to be released
5.$MERL - Merlin Chain announced new investment co-led by Spartan Group and Hailstone Labs
6.$SUI - Announced a partnership with ByteDance's enterprise technology division BytePlus
7.$WLD - Worldcoin announced the launch of World Chain, Layer 2 will be released this summer
8.$ZIG - Zignaly launched a layer 1 chain called ZIGChain and announced a $100 million ecosystem fund backed by DWF Labs
9.$ONT - Ontology launched a $10 million program to accelerate DID Solution

Follow my profile picture to get selected currency news every day, and there will be different market analysis