First halving, 2012-2013 Bitcoin started a bull market
Second halving, 2016-2017 Bitcoin welcomed a bull market
Third halving, 2020-2021 Bitcoin continued a bull market
Fourth halving, 2024-2025 Bitcoin will continue a bull market

Today's Share: UNI

Current market value is 7.813 billion, with 60% circulating in the market, ranked 24th

UNI is about to receive great news, as the official website has announced that it will launch its own Layer 2 mainnet at the beginning of next year. This means UNI will have faster transaction speeds, lower fees, and higher throughput. UNI is sure to rise as well, so it’s worth keeping an eye on!

Today's Share: UNI

Current market value is 7.813 billion, with 60% circulating in the market, ranked 24th

UNI is about to receive great news, as the official website has announced that it will launch its own Layer 2 mainnet at the beginning of next year. This means UNI will have faster transaction speeds, lower fees, and higher throughput. UNI is sure to rise as well, so it’s worth keeping an eye on!

My viewpoint is simple: it's okay to escape the peak, and it's fine to indicate risks, but the premise is that it should be within the framework of trading logic.

Escaping the peak on the left side means looking at Fibonacci expansions or retracing to some key positions.
Escaping the peak on the right side means watching for moving averages to break down and a bearish structure to form.
In terms of the order book, it's important to pay attention to the gap between buy and sell orders, as well as the main orders.
Then there are technical indicators, such as open interest, fees, premiums, etc.

If someone with strong trading experience gives you a risk warning with reasoning, I think it's worth listening to; but if it's just a simple analyst indicating risks, I personally feel it's only worth referencing and shouldn't be taken too seriously.

My view is simple: it's okay to take profits, and it's fine to point out risks, but the premise is that it must be within the framework of trading logic.

Taking profits on the left side means looking at Fibonacci extensions or retracements to some key levels.
On the right side, it means watching for moving averages to break and a bearish structure to form.
In terms of the order book, it's important to pay attention to the gap between buy and sell orders, as well as the main orders.
Then there are technical indicators, such as open interest, fees, premiums, etc.

If someone with strong trading experience points out risks with sound reasoning, I think it's worth listening to; but if it's just a simple analyst pointing out risks, I personally think it can only be taken as a reference and shouldn't be taken too seriously.

Analysis of the Key Logic of the Bull Market in Cryptocurrency:
1. A few people make a lot of money: Those who can truly profit significantly during a bull market are usually just a few lucky individuals.
2. Most people lose money: The majority often get trapped when chasing high prices and ultimately end up with losses.
3. Initially overlooked: Bull coins are usually ignored before they explode, appearing quite deserted.
4. Attracts attention only after significant gains: When everyone starts discussing it, the best entry opportunity is often missed.
5. Concentration of chips: In the early stages of price increases, at least 90% of the chips are held by a small number of people, creating a concentration effect.
6. Optimistic doesn't necessarily mean a big rise: Although everyone generally favors certain coins, they may not necessarily become true bull coins.
7. Lesser-known coins have more potential: Those obscure coins that few mention often have a better chance of becoming the next bull coin.
8. Man-made push: The rise of bull coins is often driven by early large holders, who later cash out at high prices.
Want to seize the next opportunity? Remember these logics, stay calm, and you may have the chance to stand at the peak of the wave.

The biggest challenge in dealing with altcoins like UXLINK that can double in a few hours is actually trading psychology.

When the price soars, your original profit target will be disrupted, and you will think to yourself, "Wait a little longer, maybe it will go higher."

Then, when the price starts to fall, you will think, "Wait until it returns to the previous high before selling", but the result is often that the price continues to fall.

In fact, the way to deal with this market is very simple:

Left-side profit: Actively reduce positions in batches to ensure that the position is controlled between 1% and 3%.

Right-side profit: Use EMA20 as support and exit decisively when the price falls below it.

In the long run, strictly following the trading plan is much more reliable than being swayed by emotions.

One of the characteristics of a big bull market is the frequent sharp declines, but the overall trend is upward. This round of the bull market is already quite good compared to 2017, with more sideways movement or narrow fluctuations. For example, it consolidated for half a year before finally breaking through 74000 and setting a new historical high. Give Bitcoin some time, let the bullets fly for a while, and after some adjustments, Bitcoin will definitely break through 108000 and set a new milestone.

It's Saturday again, and the market trend is gradually slowing down. After a rebound to 975 yesterday, the price of the coin faced resistance and the market has seen a pullback of nearly 4,000 points. Yesterday was also a bearish sentiment with short positions taken. After a night of fluctuating adjustments, the market still failed to provide effective support for a 4,000-point rebound. Overall, the trend is relatively weak, and we will continue to maintain a high-concentration approach in our operations.
Looking at the daily chart, the price of the coin has fallen to the lower support zone and has managed to halt its decline. Although there is a short-term rebound, the strength is relatively weak. From a long-term perspective, the bearish trend still has momentum, but there is a need for correction in the short term. Therefore, it is not advisable to aggressively pursue short positions at this time to avoid hitting the floor, especially since we are currently at a 4-hour level. In the short term, we can look for rebound actions. After the correction, we can plan for short positions. A drop is expected to be observed on Sunday.

ETH is currently trading at $3,430.12, up 1.62% in the past 24 hours.

The price rebounded from a low of $3,304.63 and is approaching a critical resistance level of $3,444.16.

If ETH breaks above this resistance, it could push the price higher, extending the bullish momentum.

However, if it fails to sustain above $3,400, the price could pull back to $3,350.

Traders should keep an eye on these key price levels and plan their trades with proper risk management strategies to capture potential profitable opportunities.

The copying laws I collected are as follows

Law 1: Rapid rise and slow fall to absorb funds
If the price of the currency rises rapidly and falls slowly, this is the dealer quietly absorbing funds to prepare for the subsequent rising market.

Law 2: Rapid fall and slow rise are signs of shipment
When the price of the currency falls rapidly and rises slowly, it means that the dealer is shipping, indicating that the market is about to enter a falling cycle

Law 3: The key to the top volume without volume
When the volume appears at the top, the currency price may still have the momentum to continue to rise, and there is no need to rush to sell at this time; if there is no volume at the top, it indicates that the rising momentum has been exhausted, and you should leave the market as soon as possible to avoid risks.

Law 4: The principle of cautious intervention with the bottom volume
If the volume only appears at the bottom, it may be just a brief pause in the process of decline, and it is not suitable for rash buying; only when the bottom continues to increase, indicating that a large amount of funds are pouring in, can you consider entering the market.

Law 5: Cryptocurrency speculation is essentially speculation on market sentiment. Trading volume can reflect the market consensus and investor behavior patterns, and these factors dominate the fluctuation of currency prices.

I have been thinking about the development of this bull market recently, especially the trend of Bitcoin and altcoins.

2025 will not repeat 2021. Many people use 2021 as a reference, but 2021 itself is different from 2017 and more like 2013, although the second wave of the market is somewhat deformed.

2025 may replicate the trend of 2017, that is, there will be no obvious two-stage market, but it will not be exactly the same.

Judging from the trend of altcoins in the past two months, they are no longer following Bitcoin like in 2021, especially after January 12, when altcoins began to follow Ethereum. Although the prosperity of Ethereum's ecosystem has allowed most altcoins to follow its trend, some altcoins have their own independent rhythm.

IMPORTANT NOTE!!! IMPORTANT NOTE!!!

Since retesting the psychological support of $2 on December 20, XRP has been hovering between $2.4 and $2.13 over the past week. Is it ready to rebound again? Can it break through the new high? Old irons who hold XRP must read the article to the end.

From the structure of HTF, XRP is still bullish, but if the price cannot recover to $2.3, it is likely to continue to fall. At present, XRP has not left the risk zone

With the retreat of BTC and the weakness of the market, XRP open interest has also fallen by 54% in 3 weeks

Although XRP has attracted attention in the spot market, its futures market presents a different picture. According to CoinGlass, its open interest has dropped from $4.23 billion on December 3 to $1.95 billion on December 26, a drop of 54%. Such a sharp drop during the holiday means that the liquidity of the XRP futures market is decreasing, which may be a double-edged sword. With the crypto asset at a critical level, the price may be more volatile than expected.

From a technical perspective, the formation of a symmetrical triangle strengthens the above argument. As observed on the 1-day chart, once volatility sets in, XRP’s price is likely to breakout or crash with liquidity levels on both sides (upward and downward). The symmetrical triangle presents an equal probability of a bullish or bearish outcome.

Therefore, in line with the previous analysis, a quick recovery above $2.30 could spark a swing towards the $2.95 pattern high. However, a failure to sustain support could result in a new swing low of $1.85, which was previously seen on December 1.

We are still in the low liquidity period of Christmas and New Year's Day, although the opening of the US stock market was a little lively last night. But today is the last trading day of the week, and a lot of options have expired.

Back to the big cake itself, the low conversion rate has basically no pressure on the support level. From the current data, the support level of 95K is still relatively solid, and there is no obvious sign of damage in the short term.

Shiba Inu Coin (SHIB): Internal troubles continue, but it has become a hot spot in the market
Shiba Inu Coin (SHIB) has been in a lot of trouble recently and is deeply involved in internal disputes, but its popularity in the market has risen instead, becoming a "hot commodity" in the eyes of investors.

After a sharp pullback in the price of Shiba Inu, it is trapped in a 1-week ascending triangle pattern. If it can break through the resistance zone, it is conservatively estimated to reach $0.000056 in this cycle; if it falls below the lower trend line, the bullish layout will collapse and the decline may be greater.

It is also facing a situation where both price and trading volume are falling, which has attracted much attention from the market. However, the corrected ascending triangle is often regarded as a bullish signal, and breaking through the resistance line will have upward momentum. From the trend, the lower yellow line moves up, indicating that high-priced buying is gradually strengthening; the upper yellow line is flat, indicating that the selling pressure is large, hindering the breakthrough.

If the resistance is broken, the target price of $0.000056 is based on evidence. When trapped at the moment, changes in trading volume and momentum are key breakthrough signals.

At the same time, there are new developments in the SHIB ecosystem. Shibburn accused the top management of manipulating strategies to promote personal NFT projects. There were constant rumors of insider trading, but the top management did not respond. Recently, the SHIB Metaverse project has made some progress. As a key part of L2 Shibarium, it has technical empowerment and aims to be a creative platform. I think the development of SHIB should still be in line with Ryoshi's original idea.

2024 is coming to an end, but this round of bull market is far from over. With the US interest rate cut in October and the dust settled on the November election, Bitcoin has been the leader in this bull market, continuing to break new highs, reaching a maximum of $108,353. Compared with the surge in Bitcoin, Ethereum and other altcoins do not seem to be in a bull market. The current stage is the transition from the first stage of the bull market to the second stage. After the callback is completed, a large amount of funds will gradually flow into Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies to push up prices. There is no need to rush now. There is still time for the bull market and there are still opportunities for altcoins.

Based on the current market's retracement and trends, compared to historical market conditions, we have set relatively lenient conditions in order to gather more data for reference.

By comparing with eight key historical time points, we found that one time point experienced a rapid decline within a month and entered a bear market, while another only began its bear market more than a month later. The remaining six time points continued an upward trend, lasting at least a month, with the strongest upward phase even sustaining for five months.

If we tighten the conditions, the current trend is quite similar to the situation from December 2020 to January 2021. Therefore, I still believe the bull market is likely to continue.

Of course, the market requires continuous observation. If the trends in January and February do not meet expectations, I will adjust my positions, reducing my holdings to half a position in BTC, and prepare to respond to potential corrections. As for the market in 2025, according to my expectations, there is no need to liquidate before the entire first half of the year.

Of course, from the four-hour perspective, the key support level has not fallen below. Hangqing is still oscillating within the range, but it has not yet touched the key position, so there is no need to fall into excessive panic.

Today’s Black Friday focuses on this key position, a window of opportunity for betting on multiple orders. If you always hope that the trend will rise significantly before entering the market slowly, you will inevitably miss the excellent advantage of low position. The wise move is to seize the moment, conduct analysis and judgment calmly and rationally, accurately rely on the support level to appropriately place orders, and occupy a favorable position in advance.