雷雨

昨天才以IP為例子說明新幣上價不適合做網格交易，昨晚就看到他單邊強上漲超過三倍，做空跟中性網格大概都會爆倉吧，就算保證金足夠，大多數網格目前應該都會是停利中。就算是做多網格，大概也是停利中需要重開或是等待下跌。

從3漲到9再回跌到5，現在是該開多還是開空還是中性？.......感覺不管開哪一個，危險性都很夠。

所以網格雖然是一個不錯的工具，但是如何選擇好標的也是很重要的，我以前也吃過新幣的大虧，新幣漲跌幅度大也快，賺價差速度自然快很多，但是只要出現強勢單邊，網格機器人很容易炸掉。

For grid trading, try not to choose newly listed coins. At least wait for a while until they are stable.
Grid trading is to automatically take advantage of the price difference between rising and falling market conditions. Regardless of whether you are long, short or medium, you hope that it can rise and fall frequently within the set price range.
New coins are prone to one-sided trends. If the price rises or falls beyond the set range, the grid will stop making profits. If you misjudge the direction, you will still hold a lot of losing positions.
There are three pictures, one is IP, one is TST, and one is ETH. In the past few days, one has been rising, one has been falling, and one has been trading sideways within a certain range.
This is why I mainly choose ETH for grid trading. Other suitable ones like BTC or BNB are also acceptable.
Of course, if someone is able to predict the direction, they can earn more and faster by choosing new coins as grids. But since you have this ability, wouldn’t it be nice to just operate the contracts and make a lot of money^^
I don’t have that ability and can’t see the direction, so I chose ETH as the grid. I am suitable for this kind of slow money making method.

Since the tuition has been paid, one must learn something.
I have deeply reflected over the past few days on why I was worried and scared a few days ago, so I stopped losses at a relatively low point. The main reason is ---- greed ----

Last year, I doubled my assets, and this year I cleared out some spot holdings, using over 90% of my capital to open robots. After running for almost a month, due to greed for quick returns, I added more investment (the robot can add investment amounts without stopping). The speed of profit increased, but the risk tolerance naturally decreased. If I had maintained my old strategy, I could have avoided stopping losses and maintained profits.

Where does the robot strategy fall short?

Let me briefly talk about the price range and the number of grids. For example, in Figure 1, the larger the price range, the slower the profit speed, and conversely, the smaller the risk. The latest contract price is also less likely to leave this profit range.
The newly opened robot has a price range of 1780-4100, with 169 grids. The robot that was stopped has a price range of 2780-4080, also with 169 grids.
The former has a higher risk tolerance, while the latter has a higher profit speed.
A more stable approach could be to set the price range between 1000-4500, or even 1000-5000, which would lower the risk even more, but the profit speed would naturally be slower. To be even more stable, one could use a spot trading robot.

However, I admit that the spot trading robot is really too slow, so I couldn't resist my greedy thoughts and opened a contract robot instead, with detailed parameters as shown in the picture.

It must still be noted that the robot is one of the tools to regulate profits and risks, and it is not something that can quickly increase profits while lowering risks. Usually, fast profits mean high risks, while low risks mean slow profits.
Like myself, I clearly know that the geometric robot with a range of 900-5200, with 1% profit per grid, is lower risk and safer, but I couldn't stand the slow speed, so I opened the geometric robot with a range of 1780-4100, with 0.45% per grid. I admit I was a bit greedy.

In every trade, reflect and adjust your mindset to improve your investment strategy.
I wish everyone can find the investment tools and strategies that suit them.

Trading robots are just a tool. Whether a tool can be put to good use depends on the user's strategy.

I do not intend to be a signal provider, nor do I want to create a group or charge any fees. I am simply here to keep records, so many details will not be elaborated on; that would be too time-consuming and exhausting. I can only occasionally share some insights when I have the time.

When using the robot, investing all funds at 10X leverage versus investing 1/10 of the funds at 100X leverage with 9/10 of the funds as additional margin—are they the same?? Of course, they are not.

This is a robot, not a regular manual contract. ...... When you invest all funds into a 10X robot, all margin cannot be touched. If you want to make adjustments, you have to turn off the robot and restart it.
However, when you invest 1/10 of the funds at 100X, the margin is flexible; you can withdraw or deposit at any time. You can also take a small portion of USDT to earn interest in a regular account. Of course, if you want to make more money, you will take on more risk, such as not being able to add back margin in time during a sharp drop.

The second difference is that when making additional investments, higher leverage is more suitable for fine-tuning (as shown in the picture), while small funds can also be used for additional investments. This is something that 10X cannot achieve.

Of course, this is just a way to use the tool. After understanding how to use the tool and its techniques, how to use it depends on your own strategy. At the very least, knowing these can provide you with several options, rather than thinking that 10X and 100X are the same.

Moreover, additional investments also have timing choices, which you will have to experience for yourself.

Since staying alive is the most important thing in the cryptocurrency world, let’s stop the loss, because we cannot afford to see ETH drop by more than 500 points. Robots are a good tool that can allocate risks according to our strategy, but they are not risk-free.

BTC is still at a high level of over 90,000. What if Trump causes it to fall below 80,000? Then I will really be washed out of the cryptocurrency circle, but at this point, I really don’t have the courage to short it. What if ETH goes back up to 3,500?

From now on, just run the spot robot. I don’t know how much I can earn in a year, but I estimate it to be around 60~80%.

It's been a few years in the crypto world, I vaguely remember buying ETH at 300~400.

After experiencing several market crashes, it's truly a blessing to still be alive. I almost got washed out today. A few days ago, I should not have increased my position; I greedily wanted to earn a bit more, which naturally raised the risk. The robot didn't blow up, but it's stuck in a position I'm not familiar with.
Currently, the robot has an unrealized loss of 4000; it was originally at an unrealized profit of over 2000, and it suddenly dropped like this. I can't figure out whether I should cut my losses and reset? Cutting losses and resetting can avoid the risk of liquidation, but it will certainly reduce profits. Even if it rises back to 3000, I would still be in a loss.

Seeing news that Trump will also impose taxes on the EU really gives me chills. Wouldn't ETH then drop below 1500? I keep pondering whether I should cut my losses and start over or bet that it won't drop below 2000. If it drops below 2000, that would probably be my cue to exit the crypto world.

Not long ago, even if I opened a 10x neutral robot, today there's a high probability it would also be liquidated. If it can rise back to 3000, I might as well just open a spot trading robot.

In the previous article, many people left messages asking questions, so I won’t respond to them one by one. It would take too much time. Let’s briefly talk about the relevant information together. I won’t go into details. There are many teaching articles explaining robots on the Internet. You can go and read them.
Robot trading is the use of robots to execute the trading strategies we set. The relevant parameters are set by ourselves. If the setting is correct, we will make money. If the setting is not correct, we will still lose money. I have also published articles before about admitting losses.
The trading strategy I set myself mainly targets ETH. When the price is 3300~3500, I open a neutral robot. I set the price range 2500~4190, the grid number 169, the multiple 100, the initial investment is 20%, and 80% of the capital is in After the robot is operated, it is used as a margin call to avoid liquidation caused by strong unilateral market conditions, such as an instantaneous pin break of 2,000 or 4,500.

If such a parameter is still sold out by inserting pins, then I will admit it. If it really happens, other people will surely cry out in bloody chaos, and the people on the other side will probably make money.

If ETH is 3000 or lower, I will open a long robot, with the price range set from 2000 to 3500, and the number of grids 100 (10 points per grid).
If the ETH price is above 3800, I will open a short selling robot, with the range set from 3500 to 4500 and the number of grids 100.
When the price returns to 3500, stop the robot and start the neutral robot mentioned above.

This is my personal trend judgment, which is a neutral-to-long approach. I predict that the high this year will not exceed 4,500 and the low will not exceed 2,000. Of course, if there are any changes in the middle of the year, the strategy can be adjusted at any time. If there are no major changes, the neutral robot will not stop until the end of the year, and it is expected to double the overall funds. ....If you want to make more money, you need to invest more capital initially and lower the margin call. Of course, this way you can bear less risks.

This method works for me, but it may not suit everyone
I wish everyone can find a way that suits them

PS--Actually, my current margin call is over 80% (as shown in the picture), because I am timid now and feel that survival is more important than profit.

It's been a year, let's make a commemoration. Since I made the decision to focus on making robots, a year has passed.
I have finally earned back the money I lost from previous contracts.

At the beginning, it wasn't very smooth. From August to October, ETH dropped below 2500 and went sideways, and the robot was stuck, resulting in about two months without earnings and continued losses from capital costs. Later, I decided to cut my losses, adjusted my mindset and strategy, and just happened to ride the wave of the subsequent surge, catching up with the profit progress, which allowed the overall capital to double.

Over the past year, part of the capital was allocated to wealth management for meager interest, a small portion was put into contracts for some excitement, but mainly, I continued to run the ETH strategy. Recently, I reset the strategy range, adopting a more conservative approach, hoping that this year I can double my capital again.

The robot can assist in stabilizing profits, although the profit speed is slow. However, it has also reduced a lot of risks, making it very suitable for someone like me who lacks special talents and doesn't know whether the future will rise or fall.

This year has deepened my belief that for someone like me, who lacks financial resources and talent in the crypto space, the most important thing is not the speed of profit,

but surviving.

Contracts are not untouchable, but you need to think clearly.

ETH dropped from 4100 to 3300, that's almost an 80% drop, right?
Is that a significant drop?
But it rose from 2500, so if it drops back to 2500, is that too much?.... On the other hand, it dropped from 4100, so if it rises back to 4000, is that strange?

When going long at this position, you should think, what if it drops to 2500?
Likewise,
When going short at this position, you should think, what if it rises to 4000?

I often see liquidation posts in the plaza, many of them get liquidated with price movements of less than 5%, and some even just 2% or 1%. I often feel... you deserve to get liquidated..... I used to be like that, after suffering losses, I realized I must admit that I don't have that ability or vision.

Unless your vision is extremely accurate, every time you open a position, it's probably like flipping a coin, with a 1/2 chance of winning and a 1/2 chance of losing.
How much can you win? How much can you lose?

Have you thought it through??

In fact, the more people are unclear, the better, why??

If someone says contracts are a zero-sum game, either they don't understand contracts or they don't understand zero-sum.
Please remember, contracts are a negative-sum game; theoretically, all investors' gains and losses combined will be negative.

So if I want to make money in the contract market, the more people open positions without understanding, the theoretically smaller my risk will be, and the more people lose money, the greater my chances of making money.

You can see from my old posts, I am now part of the robot tribe.
The more people chase rising and falling prices, the better it is for the robot tribe.

The more people use robots, the worse it is for the robot tribe.
So I no longer publish posts to promote robot trading.

Today, I wrote this because I was bored after eating.

I happened to see it and made a note.
He shouted that it was going down, but it went up, so he deleted the post.
There are a lot of people like this in the square, right?
Goat is now 0.54
But I didn’t buy it, I just ran the eth robot obediently

Should I continue to hold on? Is there a chance I can hold on until 66666.6?
Taking this opportunity to tell everyone, there are many people in the square posting this kind of chart, don't be fooled by that high percentage
Is 404% really high?? Actually, it’s not, because the leverage is 100X
I’m used to looking at it with 100X just because it’s more convenient to restore the actual rise and fall
It makes it easier to calculate, from my short position at 73666.6 to now, BTC has approximately dropped by 4.04%
If I had used a leverage of 50X, 404% would only become 202%
So that high profit rate can be manually adjusted
I often see charts with over a hundred times leverage, and then a profit rate of less than 100%
I always think, what’s there to show off about that?
Will this short position have a chance to close at 66666.6?
How long will it take?

I don’t know either.

Small bets are enjoyable, shorting when BTC challenges new highs
Opportunities should always be a bit larger, right?

Finally, the profit doubled in half a year. It is possible to increase the profit speed, but of course the opposite is to bear higher risks.
In the next six months, it will be slightly more difficult to double again, mainly because if you want to reduce the risk, the natural profit rate will be smaller.

Robot trading can control profits and risks, and is a very useful profit-making tool. Occasionally, if you see someone scolding robots in the square, they probably don’t understand the functions of robots.

But I don’t want to promote robot trading too enthusiastically. I just write an article to record it occasionally, because the more people who use robot trading, the more disadvantageous it will be to the users. Therefore, it is better not to increase the number of people using robot trading.

In the past few days, ETH has been going back and forth between 3600 and 4000.
But I still saw someone in the square saying that his position was liquidated.
Every time I see the ETH liquidation article, I really want to tell him to come and read my article.

If the robot parameters are set well, the chance of losing money can be greatly reduced. You can earn about 0.5% of the income in a day, or 1% for the more daring ones. You can often see several percent of the income in a day in the rankings.

Of course, the higher the profit you want, the higher the risk you will bear, so I set the target at 0.5%~1% a day.
Small capital can only bear small risks, and it is better to make money slowly than to lose it.

I choose ETH because it is relatively stable. Try not to choose one that will increase by 1-2 times or drop by 30-50% at a time. The risk of high profits is also relatively high.

Like NOT rising sharply, even if it was a neutral robot before, it may have exploded now, otherwise a lot of margin will have to be added.

After a few explosions, it is more important to stay alive steadily.

Based on the current position, it may be less risky to open a neutral robot.


$ETH

I just saw someone saying that virtual currency is a zero-sum game. People who would say this either don’t understand what zero-sum is, or they don’t understand the virtual currency market.

I have long observed that most people who say this have misunderstood what zero-sum is. They think that someone here loses money and someone on the other side wins money, so it is zero-sum. ........wrong! ! !

Take mahjong as an example. Four people play mahjong. After playing for a while, the amount of money someone won is equal to how much someone lost. The sum is equal to 0, so it is called a zero-sum game.

Assuming that you need to pay a venue fee to play mahjong, then the final winnings and losses of these four people, some will win here and some will lose, but the total will be negative (because you have to pay the venue fee), and the total amount of money for these four people will become less. , so this is a negative sum game.

Assuming that there is an appearance fee for playing mahjong (similar to the appearance fee for professional players), then the money of the last four people will be positive because of the appearance fee, so this is a positive-sum game.

The contract market, at first glance, looks like a zero sum, because how much money someone makes on one side means how much money someone loses on the other side, which adds up to zero. .....but! ! ! ! ! Don’t forget that Binance charges fees! ! So the contract market is actually a negative sum game. My side lost 1000, the other side may only make 999, and Binance made 1.

In the spot market, whether it is negative or zero depends on the currency. A currency with value may be a positive sum, a currency without value must be a negative sum (transaction fee), and it is rarely exactly zero sum.

Virtual currencies are not a zero-sum game. Especially the contract, the contract must be a negative sum.

At present, my main robot is a neutral robot with a price of about 2900. Recently, ETH suddenly increased by 20%, so there will be more short positions.

Although I know that robots are a good choice, I continue to experience, think, and improve. If it falls below 3,000 next time, I may open a bullish robot between 2,500 and 3,500, and each bar is still 0.5%.

When it rises to 3500, open 2800~4200, one bullish and the other bearish robot. When it rises to 4200, the bullish robot will end, and then open another bearish robot between 4200 and 3500.

Fine-tuning in this way seems to be able to reduce the cost a little, without significantly increasing the risk. The main idea is that ETH will not easily fall below 2,000 or rise above 5,000.

If anyone has a good strategy, please share it for discussion

NOT has just gone up. If you should accept the loss, then accept the loss. I didn’t remember the lessons I learned before seriously, so I shouldn’t have continued driving yesterday.

When opening a robot, you still need to use a relatively stable price range, or run some more stable coins, such as ETH or BTC. The exchange rate of BTC & ETH is also very good.

If you run active new coins, profits will be faster, but the relative risks will be higher. After all, it is very easy for a new currency to suddenly double or be discounted by 50%.

Next, let’s just make money with ETH. It will take many days to earn 40U.

I just saw that NOT rose back above 5400, so I started the short-selling robot. I raised the upper limit of the price a bit, and forgot to lower the lower limit. It was really too careless. It should have been adjusted to 4700~5700.

It's a pity that it cannot be changed after it is opened.
I can only wait and see, hoping that I can earn 50% a day.

I seem to be prone to itchy hands recently. Logically speaking, this robot should not be opened. It would be terrible if it skyrockets to more than 6,200.

I hope it will not rise sharply on this day, but will only trade sideways or fall sharply.

As for ETH, I hope it will fall back to 3000 as soon as possible