Today's Bitcoin historical high is not that impressive, it can be described as weak and powerless. Perhaps it is time to fill the gap of 77000 left by the CME contracts. According to probabilities, the chance of filling it within two weeks is 61%, and within three weeks is 80%. We are now in the second week of the gap. Since the new high is so timid, it might be better to pull back first, and after that, rising would be healthier.

In this position, the madman's own long-term position is not intended to be moved, continuing to wait for the arrival of the second half of the bull market.

The currency circle is too abstract. Recalling the last round of Defi Summer, we could still proudly tell outsiders that blockchain changes the world. Look at our P2P with second-level settlement on the chain, which is both transparent and safe. Your traditional finance is scum. This round, I am embarrassed to tell outsiders that I am a bad currency speculator. I can only hold Bitcoin silently without saying a word. When someone asks me what I buy, should I tell him that I am going to buy air coins? Tell him to come to the chain for PVP, where there are ten times or a hundred times the chance every day? Maybe others can only think that I am crazy.

So behind the seemingly crazy situation, it is not progress for the entire industry, but a big setback. If it continues to develop at this trend, the industry will eventually retreat to only one currency, that is, Bitcoin. It is like sailing against the current. If you don’t advance, you will retreat. There is no real innovation and development in the industry. A bunch of MEME coins are speculated every day, and the existing stocks are self-satisfied. Bad money drives out good money. Everyone should reflect on it. If this continues, what will we have left except for a short-term boom? Will everyone become electronic beggars in another five years? After so many rounds of bull and bear markets, it is a bit sad to see the current scene. Maybe this is the world of young people, and it is difficult for us old people to understand~

Today's accelerating K-line should be the largest entity since 2021. Currently, the increase is approaching $7000. After this acceleration, the high-leverage shorts have basically been largely liquidated, and the remaining liquidations will be some low-leverage shorts. Obviously, the fuel is not as sufficient now. To continue rising, it will have to rely on new incremental funds from outside the circle to keep buying. In other words, the first wave of acceleration has come to an end.

Additionally, according to past logic, bull markets often experience flash crashes. The reason is simple: there are too many bulls, and a liquidation is needed. So let's take a brief look at the liquidation map. In the past 7 days, the liquidation volume of long positions accumulated above $80,000 has exceeded $1 billion, and above $70,000 it has reached as high as $5 billion. Therefore, a liquidation wave is necessary. As for when it will happen, no one knows. I mention this not for any other reason but to remind everyone to be aware of the risks, not to get too heated, and to patiently wait for the next opportunity to get in.

One moment it's 10 times, the next moment it's 10 times again, is there no way to live? If you missed out, then so be it, but the main thing is having once owned it, yet it was sold off prematurely; perhaps it's still better for my trading system to stick with bigger coins.

Back to the point, although small coins are skyrocketing, Bitcoin still accounts for over 58% of the total market value in the crypto world, so it’s not really a peak. This wave belongs to those who survived in the market; those on the outside still don’t know what’s going on. However, this general rise seems to have peaked, and there are still many opportunities to pick and choose going forward. In a bull market, put in more effort, and during a bear market, enjoy the scenery~

The altcoin index is only 38, which simply means the altcoin season hasn’t arrived yet; good times are still ahead, after all, the second half has only just begun.

In my impression, during the Fed's interest rate decision meeting in the past year, this time has the smallest volatility. On the one hand, the presidential election that just passed has greatly increased the volatility of Bitcoin. On the other hand, the Fed's 25 basis point interest rate cut is completely in line with expectations. Most importantly, Powell's answers to reporters' questions are all nonsense, almost no useful words, except that we don't look forward to future interest rates, that is, we have to decide the future interest rate level based on data. In a word, don't ask me, I don't know anything, everything will change with the economic situation.

The advantage of this is that it brings greater uncertainty to the interest rate decision in December and next year. In short, we are still in a rate cut cycle, because Powell affirmed that the current interest rate must be higher than the neutral interest rate. The liquidity is abundant gradually. For the currency circle, there is no need to guess the top at the moment, just enjoy the happiness brought by the main rising wave.

If you believe, like me, that the ETH/BTC price has bottomed out, then you need to know the following things (the main storyline of the second half):

First, the most important thing about Trump's victory in the election is that he has a project being launched. This project is the official Twitter account of $WLFI @worldlibertyfi. The project can be understood as#Defior #RWA. It will help the development and popularity of this type of sector in the cryptocurrency circle.

Second, the first thing Trump did after his election was to remove the chairman of the SEC. Once Gensler, who has suppressed the cryptocurrency circle for many years, steps down, things that the SEC previously prohibited from doing will be eased, such as institutions buying ETH ETFs to pledge and earn income, and some tokens that are recognized as securities by the SEC can start to distribute dividends openly. Some projects that are currently suing the SEC may also be potential beneficiaries.

In general, the main line of the future is relatively clear, that is, ETH-type sector + DEFI + RWA sector, the strongest when all three are superimposed, such as $LDO $ENA $AAVE, etc., and DEFI superimposed on competing public chains such as SOL, SUI, APT, etc., also performed strongly today, such as $RAY $CETUS, etc., and then there are DEX-type, which are all potential dividend coins, such as $UNI, etc.

Another hidden line is MEME, but MEME coins are launched in large and complex numbers, and hot spots emerge in endlessly. It is difficult to find the golden dog among them. You can only take one step at a time. If you really think that the difficulty of on-chain PVP is too high, it is better to find some alphas in the big exchanges, so that at least you will be cut less, after all, the liquidity of the exchange is continuous.

The most likely thing that can stand out in this round of the currency circle is #RWA. The on-chain assets are linked to the real world, forming a closed loop of virtual assets and real assets. The on-chain step must be endorsed by a powerful country or government department. After Trump takes office, this process may be accelerated. This is the track with the most opportunities in the second half of the current bull market. Today's surge is not unreasonable, and it may just be the beginning. DYOR

Sit back and watch the storm

This afternoon in Beijing time, something big is coming. From the moment you opened your eyes today, it is destined to be a highly volatile day for Bitcoin. It is still unclear who will ultimately prevail between Trump and Harris, but whether in the prediction market or the commodity market, there are strong indications that Trump's chances of winning are greater. Currently, several swing states are gradually leaning towards Trump. In any case, the results will be revealed in just a few hours, and the key is to develop our own trading strategy.

First, let's talk about short-term trading. No matter who is elected, it could be a rollercoaster. The only question is whether it will rise first or fall first. This is similar to previous interest rate meeting trends. The underlying logic is that the Republican Party places more emphasis on supporting Bitcoin at present, while the Democratic Party will tend to have a more stable long-term approach. Therefore, the market will experience repeated games, leading to significant fluctuations. This is akin to how Powell gives us future expectations with his repetitive statements after each interest rate decision. The madman anticipates that a one-sided market exceeding +10% is unlikely to occur, so short-term trading should focus on operating within the volatility range of major support and resistance levels to increase the success rate.

The resistance level is obviously at the historical high, while the support levels of 65,000 and 60,000 will bring significant buying pressure.

Regarding the future trend, it is self-evident that the trend is positive. Trump's election might lead to a sharp rise, followed by a consolidation, then another rise. If Harris is elected, it might be a period of consolidation followed by a slow upward trend. Here, I am discussing the trend on a monthly basis. Regardless of who is elected, it will only change the process, not the outcome, which is closely related to the governing strategies and directions of both parties. The future will not be static.

The liquidation map tells us:

If Bitcoin rises by 10%, $1.7 billion in shorts will be liquidated,
If Bitcoin falls by 10%, $3.2 billion in longs will be liquidated,
Guess which way it will go?

Is Harris really going to take over? The funds betting on Trump have decreased from 66% three days ago to 55% today, and it continues to decline!
#合约爆仓 #美国大选

Bitcoin is now 1.2 trillion, accounting for 53%, which means that the market value of small coins is 1.06 trillion.
At the peak of the last bull market, the market value of big coins was similar to that of now, and the market value of small coins increased from 20 million to a total market value of 1.2 trillion.
Even so, the market in the last round could not bear the selling pressure of small coins. If you want small coins to increase 10 times in this round, who will take over the 10 trillion altcoins? And what kind of incremental funds will pull small coins to 10 trillion?
So now for institutions, the cost-effectiveness of buying big and second cakes is much higher than that of small coins. I think it makes sense. Like it.

The trading volume of Hong Kong's 6 Bitcoin + Ethereum spot ETFs was 87.58 million Hong Kong dollars (12 million US dollars).

The first-day trading volume of the US Bitcoin ETF was 4.6 billion US dollars, which is 383 times the first-day trading volume of Hong Kong.

Hong Kong ETFs are really useless~

A track that is not fud is not a good track. When ETH rises, the staking track will still have a flywheel effect.

$pendle was hit hard today, mainly due to the negative impact of the Restake sector. As the saying goes, Restake is the reason for success and failure. Back then, it rose dozens of times with the help of ETH re-staking. Now the points of the underlying Eigenlayer project of ETH re-staking are seriously lower than expected, which directly dealt a fatal blow to $pendle. The main impacts are as follows:
1. The Eigenlayer snapshot is scheduled for 3.15, and most of the latecomers who pledged will not get tokens this time;
2. All points obtained by relying on the LRT track will be postponed to the second time, including YT (leverage points) in Pendle. Also affected by this are $RENZO, $ETHFI, $PUFFER, $KELP, etc.;
3. Pendle YT investors are likely to suffer losses due to the points mechanism, resulting in a large number of YT redemptions, making Pendle The reason for the sudden drop in TVL is very simple. According to the pre-market price, the total market value of Eigen has exceeded 15 billion US dollars. The market currently does not have the capacity to take over projects with such a market value. The tokens that failed to be sold at the opening are likely to experience the harvest of the dead projects and depreciate severely when the second phase is issued;
4. When redeeming ezeth PT on Pendle recently, it failed to redeem ezeth at a 1:1 ratio, which made people re-understand the mechanism and valuation of Pendle;
5. Eigen will be listed on May 10th. We will know whether it is a mule or a horse at that time, but as I said, this project is not worth 15 billion FDV. Pay attention to the risks when listing.
Conclusion: Pendle is affected by the Eigen points system, which has seriously damaged its valuation in the Restake track. TVL will be greatly affected, but Restake is not all of it. For an interest rate swap agreement, it can be used on any project that earns points, so the long-term value still exists. If the market value can be significantly repaired, it is still a worthwhile project to fall to less than 3.

It was so miserable. 4 ETH were taken away by the robot clamp. Let me share the process briefly. I paid the tuition fee. Let's avoid the pitfall.

I deposited PT ezeth in pendle before. When I deposited it, the annualized interest rate was about 64%. At that time, I expected to get 4% return after maturity. As a result, you all know what happened later. Ezeth was unpegged and has not returned to the anchor until now. I was cut 3 times in total for such financial management.

1. When PT ezeth was exchanged for ezeth, it was exchanged for ezeth at the price of eth at that time. The nominal value of ezeth was higher than eth by 1%, and it was cut by 1%.

2. On the day when pendle ended, the actual value of ezeth was more than 3% lower than eth (unpegged). If it was directly exchanged back to eth, not only did I not make money, but I also lost a little.

3. Finally, I waited until the anchor was about 1%. I exchanged ezeth back to eth on uniswap today. According to the calculation given by uniswap, I could earn 1.5% in the end. As a result, the moment I exchanged it back, the clamp took away my 4 eth, about 2% of the total amount.

Here, I would like to share with you the principle of the clamp. When the robot monitors a large amount of funds to buy or sell, it will rush ahead of you with a higher gas fee. For example, if you buy, it will rush ahead of you to buy with a large amount of funds, causing your purchase cost to increase significantly. Then, at the moment of your transaction, it will sell all the chips bought to complete your harvest; the opposite selling principle is the same. In the future, when you trade large amounts on dex, remember to raise the gas fee, or make multiple small transactions. This clamp is too tight, and this way of losing money is really annoying.

It is not so easy to make money in the staking track. If it is difficult to distinguish the project, it is better to put it in lido or eigenlayer, otherwise it will really lose both the wife and the life, take huge risks, and finally not even make a cabbage~

0429
The US stock market will open in the evening. Let me briefly say a few words. The macro environment in the United States has changed recently, so we have to lower our expectations for the short-term trend of the market. The US stock market continues to fall, and the Bitcoin ETF has also seen a net outflow across the board. The Japanese yen and the Korean won have fallen sharply. Simply put, the new US GDP data is seriously below expectations, while the inflation rate remains high. This is a typical stagflation. If stagflation occurs, inflation must be curbed. The expectation of interest rate cuts has fallen again, and risk assets are eating noodles across the board. This tone is difficult to change in the short term unless we see a change in new economic data. Therefore, the outflow of Bitcoin ETF may not be a short-term behavior, but a phased risk-averse retreat. Bitcoin is likely to experience a wave of correction next week, and 53,000-56,000 has strong support.

Let's talk about ETH. Although the ETF code of Franklin ETH has been added, this does not mean that the ETH ETF product will pass in May. The reason why Sun Ge has been buying ETH crazily recently is that he believes that ETH will pass sooner or later, as long as he is in the industry, this dividend will be reaped sooner or later. ETH was very strong yesterday, but it weakened again today. The trend of ETH after the opening of the US stock market is crucial. If it can return to strength, we can raise some expectations for next week. If it continues to be weak, the market will weaken, and it will be difficult for small coins to be driven up.

Let's talk about small coins. There is almost no money-making effect. The main reason is that the speed of new listings is too fast. Binance OK has one big project after another. The market simply does not have so much funds to undertake. The recent situation is that the previous one collapsed, and all the mined coins are the most suitable to be smashed online. Bitcoin Layer 2, Ethereum re-staking, inscriptions, runes, MEME and other hot spots are almost completely extinguished. They are in a stage of staring blankly. Watch more and do less. After the adjustment of Bitcoin is over, pay attention to small coins, which are cost-effective to buy.

Finally, let me mention A-shares. The reason why it has been so strong recently is that international funds have started buying it. Developed market currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Korean won are not as strong as the RMB. It will become the norm in the near future for funds to choose the RMB, which is resistant to declines, and the undervalued A-shares. Unfortunately, May Day is coming soon, and no one knows whether there will be new variables after a week of closure. But overall, RMB assets have been internationally recognized in this wave of the United States' harvest of the world, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the future stock market.