Five Signs the Market is Approaching Its Peak
1. High Funding Rates: If they remain elevated for an extended period (2 - 3 months or more), it indicates market overcrowding and hidden adjustment risks.

2. Accumulation of Unrealized Profits: The accumulation of wealth on investors' accounts without realization can increase market risks and easily disrupt balance.

3. MVRV Ratio Exceeds 5: When the ratio is above 5, the market is overheated with a risk of bubble burst, and investors need to be cautious.

4. Bitcoin's Share Decreases: If its share drops to 40% or lower, it may indicate that funds are flowing elsewhere, suggesting the market is nearing its peak, and risks should not be ignored.

5. A Hot Topic of Public Discussion: When cryptocurrencies are widely discussed, it may indicate overly optimistic market sentiment, and investors should respond cautiously to risks.

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Today's key news is as follows:

First, there is a big news from the United States. The third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) has been unexpectedly revised upward. At the same time, the decline in the number of initial unemployment claims has exceeded the market's previous expectations. This series of data changes has undoubtedly added many variables to the US economic situation.

Second, the Bank of Japan still maintains the status quo in monetary policy and once again chooses to stay put. Affected by this, the appreciation expectations of the yen have changed significantly and have now fallen to the lowest level in nearly a month. This trend may have many chain reactions on the financial markets related to the yen.

Third, the latest developments of the Bank of England have attracted great attention from the market, and the differences in its internal voting results are far beyond market expectations.

In addition, the statement released by the Bank of England also revealed key information, suggesting that interest rate cuts may be carried out at the quarterly level in the future. This signal will undoubtedly stir up the spring waters of the British and even international financial markets.

Fourth, the United States is facing a new situation. Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives are taking urgent action to find alternatives to the current plan to avoid the embarrassing situation of a government shutdown. After all, a government shutdown will have many adverse effects on many domestic affairs and international image of the United States.

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Today's key news is as follows:

First, there is a big news from the United States. The third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) has been unexpectedly revised upward. At the same time, the decline in the number of initial unemployment claims has exceeded the market's previous expectations. This series of data changes has undoubtedly added many variables to the US economic situation.

Second, the Bank of Japan still maintains the status quo in monetary policy and once again chooses to stay put. Affected by this, the appreciation expectations of the yen have changed significantly and have now fallen to the lowest level in nearly a month. This trend may have many chain reactions on the financial markets related to the yen.

Third, the latest developments of the Bank of England have attracted great attention from the market, and the differences in its internal voting results are far beyond market expectations.

In addition, the statement released by the Bank of England also revealed key information, suggesting that interest rate cuts may be carried out at the quarterly level in the future. This signal will undoubtedly stir up the spring waters of the British and even international financial markets.

Fourth, the United States is facing a new situation. Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives are taking urgent action to find alternatives to the current plan to avoid the embarrassing situation of a government shutdown. After all, a government shutdown will have many adverse effects on many domestic affairs and international image of the United States.

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When paying attention to the DOGE (Dogecoin) market today, you need to pay attention to the key price of 0.318.

Only when the price of DOGE can stand firmly above 0.318, from the 1-hour level trend, its market is expected to start the rebound mode.

During the rebound process, there are several pressure points above that deserve special attention, which can also be regarded as staged target points, which are near 0.333, 0.348 and 0.365 respectively.

When the price touches these areas, investors need to pay special attention to the changes in the market and the comparison of long and short forces.

On the contrary, if DOGE cannot successfully stand above the position of 0.318 during the rebound today, it means that the strength of this wave of rebound is relatively weak, and the subsequent market is likely to continue to pull back downward.

In this case, there are several key support levels below that investors need to pay close attention to, which are near 0.307, 0.296 and 0.281 respectively.

When the price falls to these positions, whether the market will show signs of stabilization will become an important basis for judging the subsequent trend.

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Christmas Horror in the Cryptocurrency Circle: History Repeats in Fluctuations

Every Christmas, the cryptocurrency circle is like being cursed, and there will always be storms. Take Bitcoin (Bitcoin) for example, the price trend is even more exciting than riding a roller coaster.

Looking back to 2021, the price of Bitcoin was like a kite out of control, falling from the clouds to the bottom of the valley. The rapid plunge made investors sweat, and many people still have lingering fears when they recall it.

This year, it is the turn of the emerging currency PEPE to become the focus of everyone's attention. Its popularity has soared like a rocket, and it is likely to surpass the popular SHIB at that time.

The crazy pursuit of the market makes people worry about the risks hidden behind it.

Going back to the Christmas period of 2017, the price of Bitcoin plummeted from a high of nearly $20,000 to $6,500.

The horrible candlestick chart at that time became an indelible nightmare in the hearts of countless investors. Their wealth evaporated in an instant, and many people lost everything.

Now, if we look closely, the current fluctuations in the cryptocurrency circle are strikingly similar to those in 2017.

The entire cryptocurrency circle is like a huge casino without gunpowder but full of dangers. On the surface, it is full of the excitement and temptation of getting rich overnight, but in fact, it is hidden and turbulent, and risks follow like a shadow.

Those investors who have the dream of getting rich and are waiting in line for new coins to be listed with joy are probably looking at their shrinking assets and feeling sad, and their hearts are bleeding.

In this ever-changing and dangerous cryptocurrency world, every USDT earned is full of hardships and difficulties.

So it is important to remember that investment must not be a one-shot deal, and never put all your eggs in the same basket. Always be cautious, and the more careful you are, the less loss you will suffer.

After all, history has warned us time and again that it always comes back with a strikingly similar appearance, and this is precisely what makes people most frightened. #灰度SUI信托基金

For the trend of Ethereum (ETH) today, investors need to focus on the key price of 3427.

Once ETH can stand firmly above this position, from the 1-hour level, it is likely to trigger a round of rebound.

At this time, the key pressure points and potential targets above are 3465, 3519 and 3598 respectively. If the market progresses smoothly, it is necessary to pay attention to the conversion of long and short forces when these points are touched.

On the contrary, if the rebound of ETH today is not strong enough and it cannot successfully stand above 3427, it means that this wave of rebound is relatively weak, and the subsequent market is very likely to continue to pull back downward.

In this case, the support levels below that deserve special attention are 3370, 3324 and 3289. When the price slides to these areas, the market's acceptance strength and whether there will be signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing will become an important basis for investors to judge the subsequent trend.

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Bitcoin Market on December 20th
In the morning, Bitcoin dropped to around 96,000 and then rebounded to about 97,700. Currently, the bears seem strong, but don't blindly chase shorts.

Overall, the price may test lower, but the probability of directly breaking below 94,000 is low. Intraday, you can consider 95,000 as a support level; if it stabilizes and rebounds, consider going long.

For shorting strategies, consider entering a short position when Bitcoin rebounds to the 98,000 - 98,500 range; if it retraces to 95,500 without a sustained drop, decisively go long.

Note that the market is volatile, and operational advice is for reference only. Investment decisions should be made cautiously.

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KSM Market Analysis
1. K-line Perspective: The K-line has broken the 0.618 key level, the market continues to fall, or may test 0.78. Attention can be focused around 26.7, consider buying on dips, and await profits in a bull market.

2. MACD Analysis: The fast and slow lines are approaching the 0 axis, with no golden cross trend currently, investors need to remain calm and watch for market signals.

3. RSI Assessment: The daily RSI fast line has dropped to 11.7, below 20, indicating oversold conditions, consider building positions today; the 4H RSI fast line has risen, with a small market stabilizing, providing short-term reference.

4. Spot Positioning: Entry can be made in the 30 - 31 range, and after building positions, patiently wait for the market to rise.

Please note, the market is influenced by complex factors, and the analysis is for reference only; investment decisions must be made with caution.

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Zheng Qinwen pointed out that as long as the trend line is not broken, the short-term upward trend will remain stable. Even if the correction is nearly 10,000 points, it is normal. After all, the market ups and downs are common, and there is often a correction after the long Yang.

From the big picture, the key low point support is around 88,000, and the upward support trend line built from this starting point has not changed at present.

This round of trend includes multiple stages such as rebound, shock, and correction, which can also be compared to the first, second, and third waves in the wave theory, just like a cow needs to look back to eat grass while moving forward.

Although Powell's speech will cause large fluctuations in the crypto market every time, there is no substantial change in the general direction of cryptocurrency, mainly causing violent short-term fluctuations.

At present, the four-hour support of Bitcoin has been broken, and the daily support is concentrated in the 90,000-91,000 area. The low point of the morning retracement is around 95,000.

For short-term operations, you can first pay attention to whether this position can be maintained. If the support is effective, Bitcoin will start a new round of rebound.

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Whenever a cryptocurrency project becomes popular, a wave of speculative hype quickly emerges in the market. Take ORDI as an example; when its popularity skyrocketed, everyone rushed to hype SATS, all vying for the so-called 'leading' position.

Similarly, after GOAT gained traction, the Eastern market hurriedly launched ACT, while the Western market was not to be outdone, quickly introducing FARTCOIN. Moreover, once VIRTUAL received a lot of attention, various AI-related projects instantly popped up.

In such a fervent market atmosphere, many retail investors are tempted to blindly follow these hot projects, continuously chasing them, only to end up exhausted and not only failing to make money but instead suffering heavy losses, like holding nothing but a pile of worthless 'junk' in their hands.

Now, the PVP gaming sector has also become complicated, with various operations evolving from small 'schemes' to a certain scale.

In such a complex market environment, if investors want to adopt a relatively simple and secure operational approach, they might have to focus on projects participated in by professionals at the top of the industry with unique insights, as these projects are generally more reliable and trustworthy.

Morning Cryptocurrency Market Report on December 20
1. Bitcoin
At midnight, Bitcoin fell sharply from 101,100 to 95,700, then rebounded to 98,400, currently stabilizing at 97,600.

2. Ethereum
During the same period, Ethereum fell from 3,635 to 3,320, then rebounded to 3,464, currently around 3,430.

3. Structural Analysis
1. Four-hour: Bitcoin trading volume on four-hour and daily charts are both increasing. Watch for resistance at 99,700 above, and support at 95,500 and 93,700 below.

2. One-hour: Bitcoin trading volume has decreased on the one-hour chart. Watch for 100,200 above, and 96,500 below.

4. Trading Suggestions
1. If Bitcoin rebounds to 98,700 - 99,100, consider shorting, with a target of 96,500 - 96,300.

2. If Ethereum rebounds to 3,480 - 3,510, consider shorting, with a target of 3,370 - 3,350.

The market is volatile; this advice is for reference only, and investment decisions should be made cautiously.

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From the daily chart, looking at the trend of Bitcoin (Big Pie), there is currently a short-term second top divergence, and the market is starting to adjust. The K-line accurately retraced to MA30, and coincidentally, it landed right on the trend line.

It is important to note that MA30 has been tested multiple times in the past and has withstood the pressure without being broken, demonstrating its strong support.

Therefore, in the short term, the large pie is likely to bottom out around 98,000.

Once this wave of adjustment ends, it is highly likely to regain upward momentum and continue to challenge the previous high of 108,000, and may even set a new historical high.

In light of this, around 98,000 is a rare opportunity to buy the dip in the spot market, so everyone should seize this "bull back" opportunity!

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2024.12.19 Cryptocurrency Information Summary

1. Impact of the Fed's rate cut

The Fed cut interest rates but lowered expectations for next year, causing market panic. Powell's remarks caused shock, but there are also opportunities to get on board. The sharp drop at 4 am and 10 am and the rapid increase in liquidation volume are the best time to buy at the bottom. The current large liquidation volume has not appeared.

2. ETF status

ETF data is supported by the inflow of IBIT and ETHA funds. The net inflow this week is weaker than last week, which was foreseeable before the big drop last night. Because Americans are about to welcome Christmas, the market will not fluctuate much under the pre-holiday effect.

3. US stocks and blockchain stocks
The US stock market collapsed yesterday, and blockchain stocks were implicated. It is rumored that MSTR will have a lock-up period before next year's financial report. Michael Saylor said that after selling shares, he will raise funds to buy BTC, which will hedge against the negatives and the negatives. He may continue to buy coins.

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The recent market consolidation has left many extremely anxious, and the performance of altcoins has also been unsatisfactory. Everyone is concerned whether the altcoin season will return; I would like to make it clear: the rise of altcoins is absolutely impossible at this moment.

At least in the next one to two weeks, there will be no altcoin season. This is mainly because the main upward wave of Bitcoin has not yet ended.

The precise trigger for the altcoin bull market is in the later stages of Bitcoin's main upward wave.

In other words, only when Bitcoin enters the so-called 'garbage time' will altcoins have the opportunity to surge.

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SUI Ecosystem Highlights: Bluefin Trading Platform

SUI is undoubtedly the dark horse of the public blockchain space this year, with a strong price trend and remarkable achievements in ecosystem development. In the development of public chains, decentralized exchange platforms (DEX) are indispensable.

As a DEX on the SUI chain, Bluefin focuses on spot and derivative trading, accounting for over 90% of the contract trading volume in the SUI ecosystem, making it the king in the field of SUI derivatives.

Analogous to GMX for ARB, UNI for ETH, and Jupiter for SOLANA.

The BLUE token has seen a price increase of 3 times (peaking at 4 times) since its launch, and after a recent pullback, it is rising again, gathering momentum.

Its circulating market cap is less than 100m, and its value is clearly underestimated, with enormous growth potential and limitless possibilities, making it worthy of attention and anticipation.

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Opportunities Insights in a Market Decline

As the saying goes, opportunities often arise during downturns.

Firstly, the cryptocurrency market was dragged down by a significant drop in U.S. stocks last night, showing a widespread decline. Among them, MEME coins, SOL projects, and inscription sectors led the market losses.

Many MEME coins have seen their prices halved, and for these three types of crypto assets, it has been repeatedly emphasized that it is not advisable to intervene at this stage due to their high risks and poor stability.

Secondly, from the performance of different types of cryptocurrencies, strong sectors like DEFI and RWA have many coins that have not yet broken below previous lows, indicating relatively strong resilience and market toughness;

Meanwhile, weak coins have mostly fallen below their previous lows, showing clear market differentiation, and investors need to be cautious in their selections.

Thirdly, regarding Ethereum, attention can be focused on the price range of 3400 - 3600.

If the price fluctuates within this range, it may create corresponding trading opportunities, whether for short-term swing trades or mid-term positioning, which are worth investors' close attention and in-depth research to seize potential opportunities in a timely manner.

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The daily price of Bitcoin has directly fallen below the MA5, with MA10 support. The current price is around 98,700. Yesterday and the day before, those who shorted with Lao Xiao must have made a lot of profits!

However, don't rush to chase shorts below 99,000 for now. Let's look for a rebound around 98,800; you can consider short-term longs.

I recommend shorting during the rebound at 101,300-101,800, with a stop loss at 102,600 and a target of 98,500-96,000.

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In the early hours, the measures taken by the Federal Reserve Chairman (the term 'pimp' here is inappropriate and contains offensive language, and can be understood as a teasing nickname) and his non-cooperative attitude towards Trump (Old Trump) will inevitably not go unnoticed by Trump.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes made statements on social media saying that the Federal Reserve Chairman is not as cooperative with Trump as he is with Biden.

But this is not a big deal, because Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, nominated by Trump, will serve as a counterbalance to the Federal Reserve Chairman just like Yellen.

The measures taken by Trump's team that do not rely on the Federal Reserve's money printing are as follows:
First, terminate the conservatorship status of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac;

Second, prompt the depreciation of the dollar relative to gold;

Third, relax the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) exemption rules.

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A Brief Guide to Planning Retirement with DOGE

1. Set Financial Goals
When planning retirement with DOGE, first clarify your financial goals, commonly referencing $1 million - $2 million.

2. Calculate DOGE Quantity
With the price of DOGE in the range of $0.05 - $0.1 in 2024, if you want to retire with $1 million, you would need 10 million coins at $0.1.

3. Diversify Investments
DOGE has appreciation potential but is highly volatile and risky. It is advisable to allocate part of the funds to DOGE and part to stable assets to balance risk and return.

4. Tax Planning
If the investment returns from DOGE increase, there is a high probability of having to pay taxes. Understand tax policies in advance, plan reasonably, and optimize tax burdens.

5. Monitor Expectations
DOGE's price is uncertain and highly volatile. If it rises to $1 or $5, the quantity required will decrease, but it depends on market performance, so it's essential to adjust strategies dynamically.

6. Summary
Retiring with DOGE is possible, but it requires a clear strategy, risk awareness, and comprehensive planning to ensure the accumulation of retirement funds.

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In this round of the bull market, the market performance of altcoins and Bitcoin (the big pie) has shown a significant divergence, and many investors have encountered numerous challenges during the actual operation.

Currently, although many investors are focusing on various small coins, the reality is that many have not even recovered their principal and have even fallen into a state of loss.

This difficult investment situation is not only seen among ordinary investors; some major capital operators and project parties are also deeply trapped.

Even if they try their best to promote the price rise of certain small coins or value coins, they often find it difficult to achieve the expected goals, and the overall market operation is quite challenging.

From 2023 to the present, if investors can achieve a one to two times return on investment, their performance has actually surpassed that of most market participants.

In the current situation, although some early investors in small coins are still in a state of loss, in my opinion, as time gradually passes, the market pattern will change.

Those potential value coins still have the possibility of迎来 the next round of price increases, and the future market may usher in a new climax.

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