History has already told us that wealth cannot be created out of thin air; if someone makes money, there will definitely be someone losing money, unless external funds are entering in large quantities. This is also the main reason for this round of driving #Bitcoin up, with a large influx of funds and attention brought by spot ETFs, and attention and funds in turn driving up the price of #BTC, forming a positive spiral. The more FOMO there is around BTC, the 99% of people can make money.

However, memes are relatively too small compared to BTC; even only a few memes can break through a market value of over 100 million dollars in a short time. It is difficult for external funds to form the spiral effect of BTC, leading to a situation where every time there is a new hotspot, hot money will pour in massively, while memes that lose hot money will become the abyss for the majority.

If someone makes a million dollars in this market, there must be a majority who lose a total of more than a million dollars. Therefore, for the vast majority of investors, memes are not about making money, but about giving away money. The majority are destined to become the exit liquidity for the minority. The minority, on the other hand, are the leaders who maintain this wealth creation myth. Everyone wants to get rich, and that’s true. Therefore, memes depend on intuition, sharpness, insight, opportunity, and decisiveness, all of which are essential.

Indeed, if BTC rises again, this round to one million dollars is only a tenfold return. If ten thousand dollars can rise to one hundred thousand dollars, that would be good. In the meme market, ten thousand dollars might reach one million dollars in just ten minutes. It looks beautiful, but unfortunately, most people lose their ten thousand dollars on the way to making one million dollars. In the future, even if the market is good, it will have nothing to do with you.

Today's meme performance: fourteen investments, ten losses, and currently 32 out of 41 #SOL positions remain. I admit I am indeed inexperienced. But memes are just one of the many diversions for me; I can watch these 41 SOL go to zero without any loss to myself. What about you? How much capital have you invested in memes? Has the total amount of assets outperformed BTC?

PVP is cruel; this cruelty is always a nightmare for the majority and a pathway to wealth for the minority.

My point of view is that before December 11, Beijing time, even if you are bearish, you should not short. If on the 11th Microsoft agrees to invest 5 billion in #BTC, I personally estimate that the price of #Bitcoin could increase by 5% on that day, although there is also a possibility that it will not go through.

However, if it does not go through, it won’t harm BTC much; at most, it will let the current FOMO sentiment cool down a bit, but even if it cools down, how much can it really cool down? After all, there hasn't been any negative news for BTC yet; instead, more and more people are stepping on both sides, which is the sublimation of market FOMO sentiment.

So my personal opinion is to avoid shorting before the 11th. Before that, Michael Saylor will attend a Microsoft board meeting, and if Saylor returns saying Microsoft is very interested, then it is likely to rise again.

Even if you are bearish now, try to avoid shorting.

According to the latest 13F filing, Goldman Sachs' holdings of#BTCspot ETFs in the third quarter of 2024 rose to $710 million, up 71% from the second quarter. The newly added main force is in BlackRock's $IBIT, and it is currently the second largest investor in IBIT.

I chatted with a friend in the traditional industry today. She is already the largest broker of an insurance company in Singapore. Today, she also talked about whether to invest in BTC. She felt that BTC at $93,000 was too expensive and she didn't dare to buy it. What I told her was that she should not buy BTC. The more expensive it is, the less she wants to buy it. It is human nature to buy spot ETFs such as IBIT and buy 5% to 10% of her income every month. It does not affect her life and is also considered an investment in BTC.

Moreover, the cycle is long, and we don't stare at the price for a few days. At least after this cycle, we can talk about it. The best way is to see whether these institutions are continuing to increase their positions. If so, continue to hold them. Although Goldman Sachs may not hold them by itself, it may be for others to hold them, but it also shows that there are a large number of high-net-worth users who are willing to look forward to the future of BTC.

So I thought about it and decided to set up a second fixed investment fund. The first one is to invest 3,000CNY per month in Chipmunk. While keeping this fixed investment, I will start investing in IBIT every month, and it is expected to start with 3,000 USD per month. This is not a social experiment. What I want to do is BTCfi after SAB121 is passed.

Today someone asked me if all listed companies can learn from the MSTR model. It seems that everyone can do it, but why are there only a limited number of companies today? Because the stocks and bonds of listed companies cannot be sold casually. Not only do they need to have strong financing capabilities, but they also need to be recognized by the market.

At present, there are indeed several listed companies inspired by $MSTR. It is not difficult to raise funds and issue bonds in the early stage, but the later this is done, the higher the unit price, the greater the risk of retracement, and the lower the probability of insolvency.

We now see that MSTR's profits actually started in the fourth quarter of 2023. Before that, it was losing money every quarter, especially when#BTCfell below $16,000 in 2022. There was a rumor that MSTR was going to go bankrupt. It was @saylor who personally explained that the liquidation price was $700 to ease market sentiment.

After the latest round of MSTR's purchase of BTC, the cost is $42,692. There is no publicly listed company with such a low average price. So think about it, if the Copy Cat plan is implemented from $80,000, then once the leverage is too high, it is very likely to be directly liquidated. I even think that such a company will definitely appear in the future.

At the beginning, I also made a model and concluded that when BTC rises, MSTR does rise the best, but when BTC falls, MSTR also falls more severely. So the path that MSTR can take is indeed replicable, but the premise is to have super strong financing capabilities and very low leverage, and then it is possible to kill it when the market rises.

Now there is only MSTR, and the others are still in the "Meme" stage.

The retail data to be released this Friday is part of the economic composition. Although it is not as relevant as the unemployment rate and wages, it also reflects the economic situation in the United States. The market currently expects that the retail data in October will be 25% lower than the previous value, which may trigger a new round of expectations of economic stagnation. Observe more first, and still do not recommend shorting.

It doesn't matter if you are bearish, but the risk of shorting is a bit high.

After the CPI data came out, the remarks made by Federal Reserve official Kashkari were the same as my inference. The Federal Reserve did not think that the rise in inflation was destructive, nor would it affect the current monetary policy. Instead, it was worried that the economy would stagnate. Therefore, the economy is still the first data that friends need to pay attention to, and the focus is still on unemployment rate and wage changes.

How should I put it? Recently, many friends have complained to me that they have not kept up with the rise of Meme. What Baldy (now no longer bald) @DeFi小矿工 said in the group actually represents the current situation of many friends. No matter how much it rises, only a few people will make a profit, and most friends will still withdraw liquidity.

In fact, I made almost no money in Meme this wave. Except for a friend who bought a Meme and made a few Sols, I almost did not participate. But this does not mean that I did not make money in this cycle. In fact, I stepped on BTC and MSTR, and the profits of ETH and BNB are also optimistic.

And it is relatively easy. You just need to pay attention to the trend. Although it is not possible to increase from 5,000U to 7 million U, you can definitely get a large wave of dividends, especially when the capital volume is large, this dividend cannot be ignored. I don't mean to say I'm awesome. Actually, I'm a novice, so novice that I rarely open orders, but I still live comfortably because I chose a path with the highest error tolerance, which gave me ample opportunities for trial and error and learning, and I can turn knowledge into profits.

I can do this, and you can do it even better. So it's really nothing, there will always be opportunities, and learning and trends may be the simplest and most stable way.

I really didn't expect that the Michigan pension not only purchased spot ETFs for #BTC and #ETH, but also that the funds for the ETH spot ETF exceeded those for BTC, amounting to 10 million dollars and 7 million dollars respectively. Although it's not a lot, it still represents an attitude.

For many investors, it is these commitments that bind #BTC and Trump together. This means that these investors believe that when Trump is elected, these commitments will be fulfilled, so the positive effects have already materialized, and there is nothing further to anticipate.

However, in reality, the presidential power transfer occurs on January 20, and then the commitments will be gradually fulfilled. Therefore, commitments should be viewed as a process, not a result. Betting on commitments also carries risks; it may be more prudent to sell directly after Trump is elected.

Of course, this discussion pertains to short-term investors. For medium to long-term investors, this is not an issue. My personal expectation is that if Trump wins, there are three policies to bet on:

1. SAB121, with a high probability of an opportunity in Q2 2025.
2. ETH spot ETF staking, with a high probability of an opportunity in Q3 2025.
3. FIT21, with a high probability of an opportunity in Q2 2025.

PS: FIT21 is aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market, clarifying the regulatory responsibilities of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In May 2024, the House passed this bill with a vote of 279 to 136 and is currently awaiting Senate review.

Although it is widely believed that Trump's election is positive for #BTC and cryptocurrencies, what about the economy of the United States? After all, economic development is the most important thing. From the public statements of the two candidates so far:

Trump's election may increase government fiscal spending, which could lead to situations such as rising inflation and increased government deficits, which may not be good for the U.S. economy.

On the other hand, Harris's statements are more in line with the current development of the U.S. economy and have received recognition from two Nobel laureates in economics, although this does not exclude it being part of the campaign.

But it can indeed be seen that if I were Powell, Harris, and Trump, I would choose Harris to make the inflation in the U.S. go down a bit smoother.

The viewpoint on this issue is, on one hand, Trump's actual proposals regarding fiscal spending:

1. Increase in defense spending: Trump advocates expanding the military and increasing the defense budget to ensure America's global military advantage. This will directly increase federal government spending.

2. Infrastructure investment: Trump proposed a large-scale infrastructure construction plan aimed at improving key areas such as domestic transportation and energy facilities.

3. Immigration policy enforcement: Trump plans to strengthen border security and immigration enforcement, including building a border wall and increasing law enforcement personnel. This will directly increase federal government spending and typically requires a large amount of federal funding.

4. Tax policy adjustments: Trump plans to make the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent, continuing to lower personal and corporate tax rates. In addition, he proposed tax exemptions for gratuity income and Social Security benefits. These measures could lead to a decrease in federal revenue, thereby increasing the fiscal deficit.

According to current statistics, although Trump has also proposed plans to cut unnecessary federal government spending, the above policies could lead to an increase in the U.S. federal fiscal deficit of about $7.5 trillion over the next decade.

In fact, the risk market is not just about cryptocurrencies, but also about the stock market. Although Trump seems to be very friendly towards cryptocurrencies, it doesn't mean that the Democratic Party is unfriendly towards traditional markets, right? So from a higher perspective, regarding the overall risk market, whoever is in power won't make much of a difference. The cryptocurrency space is too niche, and as long as the US stock market is doing well, #BTC won't be too bad.

I mentioned before that $MSTR is like a BUG in the US stock market, and it is very likely that other listed companies will adopt MSTR's strategy. Indeed, this is gradually happening now. The medical device company Semler Scientific (SMLR) has just announced its third-quarter earnings report and disclosed a slight additional purchase of #BTC.

After the earnings report was released, the stock price rose by more than 31% and is currently up by 28.46%. The earnings report revealed that $SMLR holds a total of 1,058 BTC, having increased its holdings by 48 BTC this quarter. This aligns with what I initially said: as FASB's implementation takes effect, more listed companies will inevitably start purchasing BTC.

Therefore, the election is just a process and not that important; the vast universe belonging to #Bitcoin will gradually arrive.

Today, Tether's third-quarter financial report was released, and it was still quite explosive, which is one of the reasons why many friends asked me whether USDT would crash. I firmly believe it won't.

In the third quarter, Tether's profit exceeded $2.5 billion. As of September 30, 2024, Tether's total assets were $134.424 billion, total liabilities were $120.272 billion, and net assets were $14.152 billion.

Among them, the total value of reserve assets was $125.472 billion, exceeding the corresponding total liabilities of $119.38 billion, with excess reserves of $6.092 billion. In the third quarter, the quantity of U.S. Treasury bonds held directly and indirectly increased, totaling over $102 billion.

In simpler terms, a large portion of USDT's backing is based on U.S. Treasury bonds, and Tether's main profit also comes from the returns on these bonds. To put it simply, as long as Tether doesn't act recklessly, it won't fail.

Additionally, as of the third quarter, Tether held a total of 75,353.56 #BTC. This number not only did not increase compared to the second quarter but instead decreased by 187.71 BTC.

PS: I don't know how many friends remember that Tether stated in the first quarter of 2023 that it would use 15% of each quarter's profit to purchase #Bitcoin, but by the third quarter of 2024, not only was there no new increase in BTC, but it actually decreased, which is a breach of trust.

Why Non-Farm Employment Decreased but Ten-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Increased

1. After the non-farm data was released, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points was strengthened, while the possibility of a 50 basis point cut became nearly nonexistent. Although the unemployment rate rose slightly, it was not enough to influence the Fed's monetary strategy. Therefore, for those betting on an additional 75 basis points, or possibly more, it might have been a failed wager.

2. Even if the decrease in non-farm data was due to seasonal factors, the expectations for an economic recession have diminished. This means that investors' risk appetite will gradually increase, leading them to withdraw funds from low-risk, low-return U.S. Treasuries and enter the high-risk, high-return stock market.

3. The expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit may not necessarily be related to non-farm data, but it is evident that the rise in long-term U.S. Treasuries did not just start today; it began on September 17 and has only become more pronounced today. The U.S. government's budget deficit is increasing, necessitating the issuance of more government bonds to raise funds. The increase in supply leads to a decline in Treasury prices and a rise in yields. In fact, it is not just U.S. Treasuries; the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) also began to rise at this time.

4. Wage levels remain relatively high, which may mean that inflation cannot achieve the 2% target within the expected pace envisioned by the Federal Reserve. In fact, during the September monetary policy meeting, Powell mentioned that while wages are not the main cause of inflation, the spiraling increase in wages will still have a negative impact on inflation. Thus, the Federal Reserve would prefer to see a slight decline in wages, which is not necessarily aligned with the market's views; the market may interpret a decline in wages as a sign of economic slowdown.

5. There is now a large number of hedge funds and some legendary figures expressing intentions to short U.S. Treasuries, so the impact on the bond market will also be significant, leading to panic among some investors.

That's about it; there are some other scattered points, but some are not worth mentioning.

Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway's third quarter financial report - investment stock changes

The US time on November 2 released the financial report of Berkshire Hathaway. The most important thing is that Buffett once again reduced his holdings of Apple and Bank of America. According to the share price of Apple (AAPL) on June 30 and September 30, Buffett reduced his holdings of Apple by 100 million shares in the third quarter, accounting for 25% of the holdings, and reduced his holdings of Bank of America by 200 million shares, accounting for 20% of the holdings.

Berkshire Hathaway currently has $32.287 billion in cash and cash equivalents, which is lower than $36.884 billion in the second quarter. In the third quarter, Berkshire Hathaway did not increase its holdings of any investment stocks. In the third quarter, Berkshire Hathaway increased its holdings of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds (equal to or less than 3 months) by $3.6 billion, which is lower than the $4.1 billion in the second quarter and $4 billion in the first quarter.

Net profit in the third quarter was $26.48 billion, lower than $30.498 billion in the second quarter, but higher than $12.832 billion in the first quarter, of which utility and energy operating income and investment income (stock sales) decreased by a total of $3 billion.

Let me explain why I want to undertake this thankless task. In the second quarter, when Buffett reduced his holdings, there was an extreme market scenario because the market speculated that Buffett anticipated a potential economic recession. However, a quarter later, not only did the U.S. not experience an economic recession, but the U.S. stock market also performed even better, and #BTC also rose further.

So this time, when he reduced his holdings again, I wanted to truly understand from the data whether Buffett necessarily anticipated the possibility of an economic recession. In reality, during several reductions, Buffett did not predict an economic issue, but rather adjusted his expectations for certain sectors. For example, during the pandemic in 2020, Buffett believed that the pandemic might affect public travel, so he reduced his airline holdings.

It seems like a very correct outcome, but it is important to note that Buffett still holds more shares in companies like Apple, American Express, Bank of America, and Coca-Cola. During an economic recession, these stocks also experienced significant pullbacks. If Buffett had predicted a recession, he would have inevitably adjusted all his holdings, not just those related to a specific sector.

Therefore, I want to use data to let everyone know that although Buffett is a stock god, he is still human and not so divine that his reduction of holdings guarantees an economic recession. Even during periods of economic recovery or growth, Buffett will still adjust his stock holdings.

To Buffett may not necessarily be correct; although it is a thankless task, I still want to give it a try.