DECEMBER 17

FED MEETING

DECISION

The Federal Reserve’s next meeting to discuss monetary policy, including potential interest rate cuts, is scheduled for December 17-18, 2024.

The Federal Reserve is considering another interest rate cut during its December 2024 meeting, following its recent reductions in response to slowing inflation and a weakening job market. The federal funds rate currently stands at 4.50%-4.75% after a 25-basis-point cut earlier this month. Analysts widely expect an additional 25-basis-point cut, which would lower the rate to 4.25%-4.50%.

Fed officials, including Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, support gradual rate reductions, emphasizing the importance of monitoring economic data closely before proceeding. Key factors influencing the decision include labor market strength and inflation progress toward the 2% target. The Fed is expected to deliberate its next steps during its December 17-18 meeting, guided by upcoming reports on inflation and employment.

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The price of Tellor (TRB) coin spiked to around $110 on November 10, 2024, due to several factors influencing the market:

1. Whale Activity: There was significant accumulation of TRB by cryptocurrency whales, who moved large amounts of the token from exchanges like Binance. This reduced the circulating supply, pushing up demand and prices  .

2. Network Developments: Tellor’s continued integration into decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystems, such as deployments on the Manta Pacific mainnet and Filecoin Virtual Machine, enhanced its utility and appeal among investors .

3. Market Momentum: The price increase followed a broader bullish trend for TRB, as the token rebounded from earlier lows. Market confidence and optimism about reaching or surpassing previous highs contributed to the surge  .

These factors combined to drive TRB’s value to notable highs during that period. Let me know if you’d like more details!

KNOW WHY IT IS DOWN⁉️

On November 26, 2024, the cryptocurrency market experienced a notable drop due to multiple factors:

1️⃣ Liquidation of Leveraged Positions:

Over $280 million worth of leveraged positions were liquidated in the crypto derivatives market, with a majority being long positions. This created a cascading effect, driving prices further down as traders were forced to sell.

2️⃣ Profit-Taking and Market Correction:

After significant gains earlier in the year, many investors started taking profits, particularly in assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This resulted in declining prices as momentum slowed down following the approval of Bitcoin ETFs.

3️⃣ Global Economic and Regulatory Factors:

High interest rates and regulatory pressures, especially concerning stablecoins and crypto platforms, contributed to investor uncertainty. These factors combined to reduce market confidence and liquidity.

While the downturn was significant, some analysts view it as a market correction rather than a long-term crash, with potential for recovery, especially in leading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

“Goldman Sachs’ Crypto Leap: Tokenizing Real-World Assets for Institutional Investors”

MUST READ!!

Goldman Sachs is advancing its involvement in the crypto and blockchain space by launching three major tokenization projects by the end of 2024. These initiatives aim to tokenize real-world assets (RWAs), such as real estate holdings and money market funds, leveraging both public and private blockchains. The primary focus will be on financial institutions in the U.S. and European markets, creating innovative investment opportunities for major clients.

The bank views tokenization as a way to increase efficiency and expand access to traditional financial markets. By using permissioned blockchains, Goldman Sachs intends to provide faster execution and broader collateral options for securities. This aligns with its broader strategy to deepen its digital asset offerings amidst growing institutional interest in blockchain technology and crypto markets  .

The move follows a surge in institutional demand for tokenized assets and reflects a broader trend among traditional finance giants like BlackRock and Fidelity. This strategic push could further legitimize digital assets and accelerate blockchain adoption in mainstream finance  .

Yes, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis, a strong ally of former President Trump, has proposed selling part of the Federal Reserve’s gold reserves to create a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.” The plan, which aligns with the pro-crypto stance of the Republican administration, aims to use up to $90 billion from the sale of gold to purchase around 1 million Bitcoin—approximately 5% of Bitcoin’s total supply. The proposal is part of the broader “Bitcoin Bill,” which seeks to position the U.S. as a global leader in cryptocurrency reserves.

Potential Effects on Cryptocurrency:

1. Market Impact: If passed, this move could significantly increase Bitcoin’s price, as government purchases might trigger higher demand and inspire other countries to adopt similar strategies.
2. Volatility Concerns: Critics argue that Bitcoin’s high volatility makes it a risky national reserve asset compared to gold.
3. Mainstream Acceptance: A U.S. Bitcoin reserve would further legitimize cryptocurrencies, potentially accelerating global adoption and integration into mainstream financial systems.

The proposal, however, faces challenges in Congress despite a Republican majority, as lawmakers express caution over Bitcoin’s unpredictability and broader economic implications.

RED ALERTS!!

The FBI recently raided Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan’s residence as part of an investigation into potential illegal activities on the crypto prediction platform. Polymarket, known for its U.S. presidential betting, has faced allegations of “wash trading” — artificially inflating activity by manipulating trades to mislead investors. This scrutiny not only impacts Polymarket’s credibility but also raises broader concerns about regulatory risks for similar crypto platforms, potentially leading to decreased investor confidence and market volatility within the crypto sector .

YOU WILL HAVE CLEAR PICTURES OF RISKS INVOLVED AND THEIR TIMING

Several major events could create volatility or risks for the cryptocurrency market over the next year:
1. Bitcoin Halving (April 2024): Bitcoin’s next halving is scheduled for April 2024, reducing the mining rewards by half and likely impacting Bitcoin’s supply. While halvings have historically triggered price increases, the diminishing impact with each halving means it may not guarantee a significant price surge this time. Yet, any sudden price changes in Bitcoin often affect the broader crypto market  .
2. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF Decisions: The U.S. SEC is expected to make a decision soon on applications for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Approval could attract new investors and capital, driving up prices. However, if the SEC delays or rejects these products, it could impact investor sentiment and potentially lead to a sell-off  .
3. Regulatory Changes and Enforcement Actions: Ongoing regulatory scrutiny, including lawsuits against major crypto exchanges like Binance and Coinbase, could intensify in 2024. Additional regulations, especially in the U.S., could influence crypto market dynamics and potentially discourage some institutional participation  .
4. Interest Rate Policy from the Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies will likely impact crypto, as rising rates have historically pressured crypto prices. If the Fed cuts rates, it could ease liquidity constraints and potentially encourage investment in higher-risk assets like crypto .

These events and decisions could create fluctuations or unexpected downturns in crypto markets, so monitoring regulatory news and upcoming policy announcements will be key for anticipating changes.

YOU MUST READ!!

Several significant events in November 2024 could impact the crypto market. Notably, $2.68 billion worth of tokens across various projects, including Aptos, Arbitrum, and Avalanche, are set to be unlocked, which could increase market volatility. These unlocks may put downward pressure on prices, as large quantities of tokens become available to early investors and contributors who may sell them off .

Additionally, the recent listing of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. has led to substantial inflows, boosting market stability and liquidity, while attracting more institutional interest. The market has also seen a rise in stablecoin usage, which supports broader crypto adoption for payment and transfer use cases .

Lastly, ongoing developments in Ethereum’s layer-2 networks, designed to reduce transaction fees and increase scalability, are expanding Ethereum’s ecosystem. This growth, combined with increased activity in layer-2 solutions, could have a positive effect on Ethereum’s valuation and utility .

Overall, these developments—combined with regulatory shifts, particularly in the U.S. and Asia—could shape the market in the near term.

UPDATE ON TRUMP’S HEARING
12NOVEMBER

JUDGE DELAYS DECISION!!

On November 12, 2024, a judge postponed a decision in Donald Trump’s New York case, further extending legal proceedings that had added uncertainty to markets. The delay comes as Trump’s re-election and potential crypto-friendly policies are seen as influential factors for cryptocurrency investors. Trump’s proposed regulatory changes, including possible new appointments to the SEC, have fueled optimism in the crypto community. While this latest delay caused limited immediate impact, ongoing developments in Trump’s legal and political future remain a variable affecting market sentiment, particularly around Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies.

12th NOVEMBER

BIG DAY!!
DONALD TRUMP

Donald Trump’s next court hearing is scheduled for November 12, 2024, where Judge Juan Merchan will review a request by Trump’s legal team to dismiss his conviction for falsifying business records in the hush-money case. If the judge does not dismiss the case, Trump’s sentencing could proceed on November 26, as currently planned. However, the judge may face pressure to postpone or adjust sentencing, given Trump’s recent election win, which complicates the case’s political and legal implications. If sentencing proceeds, potential outcomes range from fines or probation to a conditional discharge, although jail time is generally considered unlikely   .

The legal situation is fluid as Trump also faces federal cases related to classified documents and election interference. His team could seek to delay proceedings until he assumes office in January, when presidential immunity might protect him from ongoing prosecution .

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgev9lwlxro

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Grass Coin (GRASS) has recently shown some moderate bullish momentum, with a current price around $1.63 and potential resistance at $1.92. Analysts are cautious due to its volatility, as the price has fluctuated around this range. Near-term forecasts suggest that if GRASS maintains its momentum above key support levels, it may reach $4 by the end of 2024  .

Looking further out, predictions are optimistic with possible highs of $7.25 in 2025, though some corrections might occur. By 2027-2030, prices could range between $10 and $30, depending on broader market conditions and adoption trends.

ETH 🚀

Currently, Ethereum (ETH) is positioned for potential short squeezes in its liquidation pools, with significant short-selling activity seen recently. These pools could be triggered if ETH’s price rises notably. For example, a key liquidation target is around the $3,700 level, where high accumulated short positions would start to get liquidated, potentially pushing the price even higher as traders rush to cover their positions. Another significant level for liquidation is approximately $4,100, which would further escalate buying pressure if reached.

Recently, after short liquidation events following modest price gains, traders have become cautious, especially with Grayscale’s decision to pull its Ethereum futures ETF, which has impacted market sentiment and led to even more shorts being opened. If Ethereum experiences an upswing, as some market analysts predict, these short positions may face forced liquidation, resulting in a price surge known as a “short squeeze”   .

Keep in mind that market volatility is high, so potential squeezes depend heavily on ETH’s short-term price movements and broader market sentiment.

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depends on several interconnected factors, including upcoming upgrades, adoption trends, and macroeconomic conditions.

1. Technological Advancements: The Ethereum network is expected to implement “proto-danksharding” or EIP-4844 in 2024, which aims to improve scalability and reduce transaction fees. This upgrade should make Ethereum more appealing to developers and users, increasing its value as more applications are built on the network. This scalability improvement is crucial for Ethereum’s long-term value growth as it could drive up the usage of decentralized applications (dApps) and decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols  .
2. Layer 2 Adoption: Layer 2 (L2) solutions, which operate on top of the Ethereum mainnet, are also expanding. Platforms like Polygon and Optimism are developing specialized subchains to cater to specific sectors like gaming, finance, and data. This specialization is expected to attract more companies and users, increasing Ethereum’s transaction volume and enhancing its position as a leading blockchain ecosystem .
3. Regulatory Environment and Institutional Interest: The potential approval of spot ETFs for Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies could be a significant boost, making it easier for institutions to invest. Increased institutional investment would likely lead to stronger demand for Ethereum, potentially supporting higher prices. However, this will depend on regulatory clarity in the U.S. and other regions .
4. Market Conditions: Cryptocurrency prices are highly sensitive to economic conditions and market sentiment. If broader financial markets stabilize and global interest in blockchain technology continues to grow, Ethereum could benefit from a bullish environment that might help push its price closer to $3,100.

In sum, while Ethereum’s path to $3,100 is promising, it will depend heavily on technological upgrades, L2 adoption, institutional support, and favorable regulatory decisions in 2024.

What you should know about TRB

In the short term, Tellor (TRB) coin has shown strong price volatility, primarily driven by speculative trading. Recently, on-chain data has indicated a significant increase in holdings by short-term traders, while longer-term holders are selling off their positions. This suggests that the current rally is being fueled more by market speculation rather than by sustained interest in the project’s fundamentals. While TRB has gained notable attention and price momentum, some analysts warn that without steady network growth and long-term investment, sustaining these price levels might be challenging.

On the technical side, short-term indicators are mixed. Trading signals have shown both sell pressures and neutral trends, suggesting market uncertainty. Many traders are watching the $20 support level closely, as a drop below this could trigger further declines, while sustained buying around this level might support a potential rebound.

Overall, TRB’s short-term prospects seem largely tied to trader sentiment and speculative activity, making it susceptible to quick shifts in price direction based on market conditions and investor behavior

WHAT IF TRUMP WINS?
WHAT IF KAMALA WINS?

The 2024 U.S. presidential election could have a substantial impact on the crypto market, with different implications depending on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins.

If Donald Trump wins, his pro-crypto stance and preference for deregulation may boost the market. Trump has openly supported crypto, pledging to make the U.S. a “crypto capital” and encouraging initiatives like Bitcoin mining, potentially making the environment friendlier for institutional investors and retail adoption. This could result in positive sentiment and a more flexible regulatory climate, possibly leading to higher crypto valuations, particularly for Bitcoin and other proof-of-work assets  .

On the other hand, a Kamala Harris victory may lead to continued regulatory caution, aligning with the current administration’s cautious approach. Although Harris’s camp has consulted with industry leaders, there remains uncertainty about her policies, which could mean more regulations, especially on areas like DeFi and stablecoins. This could introduce short-term volatility, potentially limiting altcoin growth while possibly favoring Bitcoin as a “safe haven” asset in the long run  .

Regardless of the outcome, macroeconomic factors such as expected U.S. interest rate cuts and global liquidity trends may shape the market more significantly, suggesting that while election results can influence crypto sentiment and regulations, broader financial forces will remain crucial .

TAO SPECULATIONS - you should consider

The performance of Bittensor’s TAO token in November 2024 is generally expected to be stable with moderate growth potential. The token has been on an UPWARD trend, driven by interest in its decentralized AI platform, which enables collaborative machine learning and rewards participants with TAO tokens for their contributions.

Currently, market analysts anticipate that TAO will experience price fluctuations within a high support range of $550 to $600, with potential to reach up to $630 in the near term.

If the token breaks through resistance levels, it could maintain a new base around $610.18 by the end of the year. However, some longer-term projections suggest that TAO could reach higher prices closer to $950 by early 2025, depending on broader crypto market conditions and AI sector growth, but also note potential volatility as the market adjusts   .

As always, the crypto market is highly kspeculative and sensitive to external factors, including AI advancements and regulatory changes.

As of early 2024, Vitalik Buterin holds around 243,000 ETH in his main wallet, valued at approximately $850 million. This represents about 0.2% of all Ethereum in circulation. Compared to the previous year, his ETH holdings have decreased slightly, likely due to recent sales. In early 2023, Buterin held around $400 million in crypto assets, so his holdings have significantly increased in value with ETH’s price recovery through 2023 and early 2024.

The Ethereum Foundation, meanwhile, reportedly holds around 0.3% of the total ETH supply, primarily for project funding and development. Together, Buterin and the Foundation hold close to 0.5% of ETH, though exact figures fluctuate with the market and operational expenses.

These values are lower than in previous bull markets, such as 2021, where Buterin’s holdings reached $1.5 billion due to ETH’s peak value at the time. The Foundation has also occasionally sold ETH over the past year to support operations and development, reflecting a continued decline from earlier peak holdings.

Sources:

• Arkham Intelligence, CoinCodex, and Nansen.ai

BRICS NEW CURRENCY’S EFFECT ON CRYPTO

The primary motivation behind the BRICS currency is to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, fostering an independent financial network. This could contribute to de-dollarization, diminishing the dollar’s dominance, which would likely influence global financial dynamics and digital assets.

For cryptocurrencies, the emergence of a BRICS currency could both positively and negatively impact the sector. On the positive side, a new currency outside the traditional U.S.-dominated system could validate alternative currencies and open opportunities for digital assets, particularly if BRICS nations explore blockchain or decentralized technology in their financial networks. This shift could lead to increased interest in crypto assets, potentially boosting their market value, as crypto can serve as a hedge against currency shifts  .

However, the establishment of a BRICS currency might also bring increased regulatory oversight in the cryptocurrency sector. Some BRICS countries already have stringent regulations around crypto (notably China), and a unified approach might intensify this stance, impacting market dynamics and limiting certain aspects of decentralized finance. This scenario could create hurdles for cryptocurrencies within BRICS countries as governments strive to manage monetary policies and control financial stability under a unified currency .

Ultimately, a BRICS currency could shift the geopolitical financial landscape, directly influencing both fiat and crypto markets as the bloc’s regulatory and economic strategies unfold.