Let’s take a look at two pieces of data from the Bitcoin market value to realized market value ratio indicator (#Bitcoin: Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) in different periods (the two pieces of data started from the day when Bitcoin production was halved in 2016/20 respectively).
At this moment, #BTC will explode in the next 1-4 months.
It is worth mentioning—— Near the bull peak in 2013, the price broke through 7 lines a total of 129 times Near the bull peak in 2017, the price broke through 7 lines a total of 103 times Near the first peak in 2021, the price broke through 7 lines a total of 101 times
Note: 1⃣ Std-Adjusted MVRV Price is derived based on the positive standard deviation of the Bitcoin MVRV indicator; 2⃣ Std-Adjusted STH-MVRV Price is derived based on the positive standard deviation of the Bitcoin short-term holder MVRV indicator; 3⃣ Fib-Adjusted Balanced Price is derived by scaling the Bitcoin balanced price (Balanced Price) by Fibonacci multiples; 4⃣ Tradable Realized Price is derived based on realized market capitalization (Realized Cap) and on-chain liquidity chips; 5⃣ Curve-Fitted Median MVRV Price is derived by fitting a curve (function) to the peak values of Bitcoin's median MVRV over historical cycles; 6⃣ Fib-Adjusted Miner Revenue Price is derived by scaling the dollar income of Bitcoin miners by Fibonacci multiples; 7⃣ Fib-Adjusted Transferred Price is derived by scaling the Bitcoin transferred price by Fibonacci multiples.
Line 5: $196,679 Line 4: $124,484 Line 3: $79,362 Line 2: $52,289 Line 1: $34,240
The chart represents a comprehensive long-term model of Bitcoin prices. This model is designed based on on-chain data such as Coin Days Destroyed, Liquid Supply, and Realized Price, using five lines to completely encompass and categorize the entire historical price range from peak to trough.
CryptoChan
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【Bitcoin Five-Line Chart Update】
Time has proven that I, Big Line 3, once again turned the tide! ($38K, $49K, $74K)
Little Chuanzi, Little Federal Reserve, all under control! 😎
The chart shows a set of BTC price long-cycle models, designed based on on-chain data such as Coin Days Destroyed, Liquid Supply, and Realized Price, using five lines to comprehensively cover and categorize the entire historical coin price from peak to trough.
【Indicator Update】Counterfeit Big Reversal, Hot in Progress 😉
CryptoChan
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A wave of updates, synchronized momentum continues 😏
The K-line chart in the image represents the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies outside the top 10; the line chart shows the M2SL / DXY data delayed by 11 weeks
M2SL is the M2 money supply data published by the Federal Reserve, measured in hundreds of millions of dollars. It measures the total amount of broad money circulating in an economy
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is an index that measures the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major international currencies (Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc)
M2SL/DXY is the ratio obtained by dividing the M2 money supply by the dollar index
When M2SL/DXY rises, investors may expect the prices of risk assets to increase, as increased liquidity and a weak dollar lower the cost of holding non-dollar assets
When M2SL/DXY falls, it may indicate a tightening monetary environment, a strengthening dollar, which could be beneficial for dollar assets (such as U.S. Treasury bonds), but puts pressure on assets like gold and cryptocurrencies
【BTC On-chain Indicator Update】 During the mid-point of the 2016 bull market, this indicator peaked, 354 days away from the bull market top at the end of 2017. During the mid-point of the 2020 bull market, this indicator peaked, 352 days away from the bull market top in the first half of 2021. During the mid-point of the 2024 bull market, this indicator has peaked, with 213 days having passed since then.
It is worth mentioning that historically, during this period, the price of the currency has experienced three major level corrections (blue circles in the chart).
The upper indicator in the chart represents Bitcoin price; the lower indicator represents the proportion of Bitcoin that has not moved on-chain for 6-12 months (weighted by Realized Cap).
CryptoChan
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The indicator peaked in the middle of the 2016 bull market, 354 days away from the bull peak at the end of 2017 The indicator peaked in the middle of the 2020 bull market, 352 days away from the bull peak in the first half of 2021 The indicator peaked in the middle of the 2024 bull market, 75 days have passed
The upper indicator in the figure is the BTC price; the lower indicator is the proportion of BTC on the Bitcoin chain that has not moved for 6-12 months (weighted by Realized Cap, using 7-day MA)
It is worth mentioning that historically, the coin price has experienced 3 large-scale callbacks during this period (blue circle in the figure)
A wave of updates, synchronized momentum continues 😏
The K-line chart in the image represents the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies outside the top 10; the line chart shows the M2SL / DXY data delayed by 11 weeks
M2SL is the M2 money supply data published by the Federal Reserve, measured in hundreds of millions of dollars. It measures the total amount of broad money circulating in an economy
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is an index that measures the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major international currencies (Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc)
M2SL/DXY is the ratio obtained by dividing the M2 money supply by the dollar index
When M2SL/DXY rises, investors may expect the prices of risk assets to increase, as increased liquidity and a weak dollar lower the cost of holding non-dollar assets
When M2SL/DXY falls, it may indicate a tightening monetary environment, a strengthening dollar, which could be beneficial for dollar assets (such as U.S. Treasury bonds), but puts pressure on assets like gold and cryptocurrencies
CryptoChan
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Figure 1: "Total crypto market value excluding TOP10" is positively correlated with "M2SL/DXY" which is delayed by 11 weeks🌚
Figure 2 is the implementation code
P. S. If the correlation continues, the market correction low will appear near the end of March? 🌝
The 13-year bull market started around MVRV = 1.75 The 17-year bull market started around MVRV = 1.75 The 21-year bull market started around MVRV = 1.75 This wave's $74K extreme pullback, MVRV just happened to touch around 1.75
The indicator above in the chart is the Bitcoin price; the indicator below is Bitcoin MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value)
Note: Bitcoin MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is an on-chain metric defined as the market capitalization of Bitcoin (Market Value) divided by the total cost basis of holders (Realized Value) MVRV > 1: Market capitalization is higher than the total cost basis of holders, indicating that investors are generally in a profitable state, which may suggest the market is overheated or in a bubble; MVRV < 1: Market capitalization is lower than the total cost basis of holders, indicating that investors are generally in a loss state, which may suggest the market is undervalued or at the bottom; MVRV ≈ 1: Market valuation is close to the total cost basis of holders, and the market is in a relatively balanced state.
【Indicator Update】The big reversal is in full swing😉
CryptoChan
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Don't panic, it's almost time to break through, my chest brother 🧘
M2SL is the M2 money supply data released by the Federal Reserve, measured in billions of dollars. It measures the total amount of broad money circulating in an economy.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is an index that measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major international currencies (Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc).
M2SL/DXY is the ratio obtained by dividing the M2 money supply by the dollar index.
When M2SL/DXY rises, investors may expect risk asset prices to increase, as liquidity increases and a weaker dollar reduces the cost of holding non-dollar assets.
When M2SL/DXY falls, it may indicate a tightening monetary environment, a stronger dollar, which could benefit dollar assets (such as U.S. Treasury bonds), but puts pressure on assets like gold and #BTC.
Time has proven that I, Big Line 3, once again turned the tide! ($38K, $49K, $74K)
Little Chuanzi, Little Federal Reserve, all under control! 😎
The chart shows a set of BTC price long-cycle models, designed based on on-chain data such as Coin Days Destroyed, Liquid Supply, and Realized Price, using five lines to comprehensively cover and categorize the entire historical coin price from peak to trough.
CryptoChan
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Don't panic
$38K coin price lightly touches Line 3 $49K coin price lightly touches Line 3 $74K coin price still lightly touches Line 3
With my ultimate support in the bull market, small tariffs are nothing to worry about 😎
A hard decoupling rally without the need for stimulus from message boards or the influence of the US stock market is what a true BTC bull market should look like 😎
【Indicator Update】The big reversal is proceeding as scheduled😎
CryptoChan
--
Don't panic, it's almost time to break through, my chest brother 🧘
M2SL is the M2 money supply data released by the Federal Reserve, measured in billions of dollars. It measures the total amount of broad money circulating in an economy.
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is an index that measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major international currencies (Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona, and Swiss Franc).
M2SL/DXY is the ratio obtained by dividing the M2 money supply by the dollar index.
When M2SL/DXY rises, investors may expect risk asset prices to increase, as liquidity increases and a weaker dollar reduces the cost of holding non-dollar assets.
When M2SL/DXY falls, it may indicate a tightening monetary environment, a stronger dollar, which could benefit dollar assets (such as U.S. Treasury bonds), but puts pressure on assets like gold and #BTC.
In 2016, this indicator had a golden cross, and 671 days later reached the peak in 2017. In 2019, this indicator had a golden cross, and 648 days later reached the peak in the first half of 2021. In 2023, this indicator had a golden cross, and 515 days have passed since then.
The black line at the top of the chart represents BTC price; the indicators at the bottom are BTC: Realized Profit (365dma) and BTC: Realized Loss (365dma).
BTC's Realized Profit and Realized Loss are commonly used indicators in on-chain analysis, used to measure the actual profits or losses of Bitcoin holders during transactions, reflecting the behavior of market participants and market sentiment.
Realized Profit refers to the actual profit that Bitcoin holders receive when selling Bitcoin. Specifically, when a Bitcoin is sold at a price higher than its last movement (or acquisition) price, the difference between the selling price and the cost price is the realized profit.
Realized Loss refers to the actual loss that Bitcoin holders incur when selling Bitcoin. When a Bitcoin is sold at a price lower than its last movement price, the difference between the cost price and the selling price is the realized loss.
The current Bitcoin SSR indicator has touched the lower band 🧘
BTC: The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) is an on-chain metric used to analyze the Bitcoin market. It is derived by dividing the total supply of Bitcoin by the total supply of major stablecoins (such as USDT, USDC, etc.). The SSR reflects the relative purchasing power of stablecoins compared to Bitcoin.
When the SSR approaches its upper Bollinger Band, it indicates that the ratio of Bitcoin's total supply to the total supply of stablecoins is high, meaning there is relatively little supply of stablecoins. This may suggest that the market is in a 'top' or overheated speculative phase, where investors might have 'fully invested', leading to insufficient remaining purchasing power.
When the SSR approaches its historical lows or lower band, it indicates that the ratio of Bitcoin's total supply to the total supply of stablecoins is low, meaning there is relatively more supply of stablecoins. This is generally associated with potential upward movement in Bitcoin's price, as ample stablecoin liquidity provides strong purchasing power support for the market.
$38K coin price lightly touches Line 3 $49K coin price lightly touches Line 3 $74K coin price still lightly touches Line 3
With my ultimate support in the bull market, small tariffs are nothing to worry about 😎
CryptoChan
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Don't panic, Line3's big support is still there, and my great BTC has its own cycle here😎
The picture shows a set of Bitcoin price cycle models, which are designed based on on-chain data such as Coin Days Destroyed, total circulation (Liquid Supply), and realized price (Realized Price). 5 lines are used to completely divide the entire historical coin price from the top to the bottom.