Eurozone manufacturing ends on a poor note, with almost no signs of an imminent economic recovery
On January 2, Eurozone December PMI data showed that the Eurozone manufacturing sector had a poor 'finish' in 2024, with factory activity declining at an accelerated pace and almost no signs of an economic recovery on the horizon. As the Eurozone's three largest economies (Germany, France, and Italy) fall into industrial recession, the scope of the Eurozone's economic downturn has once again expanded. Spain stands out due to its strong manufacturing expansion. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, stated that even in December, Eurozone manufacturing showed no signs of festive cheer, with new orders declining even more than in the previous two months, crushing any hopes for a rapid economic recovery. This viewpoint is also supported by the accelerated decline in backlogged orders.

Daily Global Foreign Exchange Market News Brief (January 2)
US Dollar:
1. Goldman Sachs: Downgraded the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut forecast for this year from 100 basis points to 75 basis points.
2. European Central Bank President Lagarde: Hopes that the ECB can achieve a 2% inflation target by 2025.
3. Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong: Monetary policy needs to remain flexible; the downside risks to the 2025 GDP growth expectation of 1.9% have increased.
4. South Korean Ministry of Finance: The 2025 economic growth forecast has been lowered to 1.8%, with an inflation expectation of 1.8%; no additional budget proposals are being considered.
5. South Korean Ministry of Finance: Starting from mid-January, South Korea will allow registered foreign financial institutions to engage in foreign exchange trading, including import and export settlements.
6. South Korean Public Administration Office: The earliest execution of detention for Yoon Suk-yeol will be on the 2nd.
7. Bank of Thailand meeting minutes: Looking ahead, the Thai economy faces increased uncertainty, primarily due to the impact of U.S. economic policy.
8. Bank of Indonesia: Intervened in the foreign exchange market to maintain supply-demand balance under pressure on the Indonesian rupiah, as domestic foreign exchange supply has not yet returned to normal due to holidays.
$BTC

Economists Warn: Trump's 'MAGA Economics' Will Harm the U.S. Economy!
Analysts say the Trump administration will become an 'unpredictable machine', making it difficult for businesses and families to make long-term decisions, inevitably leading to economic losses.

A new wave of cholera outbreak in Sudan has resulted in 1,316 deaths
On January 1, local time, the Sudan Ministry of Health announced on December 31, 2024, that the new wave of cholera outbreak in the country continues to spread, causing 1,316 deaths. The statement said that the latest cholera epidemiological report shows that the outbreak has spread to 82 areas in 11 states across Sudan, with a total of 49,554 cholera infection cases, of which 1,316 are death cases. In addition, the total number of dengue fever infection cases nationwide has reached 8,692, with 15 death cases. The statement also mentioned that the epidemic situation is severe in several regions of central and southern Sudan, and health authorities need to take more intervention measures.

CDC: 66 Confirmed Cases of Avian Influenza Virus in the U.S.
On January 1st, according to the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported on December 31st local time, there have been 66 confirmed cases of avian influenza virus infection across the United States. The CDC is closely monitoring dangerous signals associated with avian influenza and whether the disease may develop into an epidemic. Dangerous signals include outbreaks of human-to-human transmission and virus mutations. According to reports, the CDC announced last week that a patient hospitalized in Louisiana due to severe avian influenza was found to be infected with a mutated virus, which falls under the category of dangerous signal cases. So far, there is no evidence that this patient in Louisiana has transmitted the virus to anyone else.

U.S. Oil Production Hits Record High in October
On January 1st, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that due to demand soaring to its highest level since the pandemic, U.S. oil production in October increased by 260,000 barrels per day month-on-month, reaching a record 13.46 million barrels per day. According to Reuters calculations, U.S. oil production in October rose by 2.3% year-on-year. The EIA data shows that the previous monthly record for U.S. oil production was 13.36 million barrels per day in August. The supply of U.S. crude oil and petroleum products (the way the EIA measures demand) increased by about 700,000 barrels per day in October, reaching 21.01 million barrels per day, the highest since August 2019. The demand for distillate fuels (including diesel and heating oil) increased by 347,000 barrels per day in October, reaching 4.06 million barrels per day, the highest in a year.

Led by Musk and Zuckerberg, the total wealth of the world's top 500 billionaires in 2024 exceeds $10 trillion
On January 1, it was reported that under the leadership of Musk, Zuckerberg, and Huang Renxun, the world's richest 500 have reached a new milestone in 2024: a total net worth of $10 trillion. The unstoppable rise of U.S. tech stocks has played a key role in the wealth growth of these three individuals, and has also boosted the net worth of Larry Ellison, Bezos, Michael Dell, and Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, with the assets of these eight tech giants increasing by over $600 billion in 2024 alone. Dominating the 2024 global billionaire list is Musk, the so-called 'first buddy' of U.S. President-elect Trump, whose close relationship with Trump has helped his company's value soar, bringing his wealth to an unprecedented $442.1 billion, an increase of $213 billion since the beginning of the year.

Panama Celebrates 25th Anniversary of Canal Sovereignty Transfer, President Reaffirms Sovereignty Over Canal
On December 31, local time on December 31, 2024, Panama held a commemorative event for the 25th anniversary of the Panama Canal transfer at the headquarters of the Canal Authority, attended by President Mulino and hundreds of guests. During the ceremony, Mulino reaffirmed Panama's sovereignty over the canal. In his speech, he emphasized, 'It is precisely because of our neutral management that countries around the world can rest assured that strategic passages like the Panama Canal will not be involved in any conflict.' In response to the threat posed by U.S. President-elect Trump attempting to reclaim the Panama Canal, President Mulino replied, 'The Panama Canal only belongs to the Panamanians, and that will never change.'

International News:
1. For the first time in history, a South Korean court approves an arrest warrant for President Yoon Suk-yeol.
2. South Korea's acting president Choi Sang-mok exercises veto power over the internal turmoil special investigation law and the Kim Gun-hee special investigation law.
3. US and UK fighter jets launch airstrikes on a military camp in Yemen's capital Sana'a.
4. European natural gas prices rise to 50 euros per megawatt-hour, the highest level since November 2023, as the Ukrainian gas transit agreement is about to expire.


$BTC

The White House: President Biden has ordered all federal government departments and agencies to close on January 9.

Bank of America Analyst: Funds Flowing into Euro Investment Grade Bonds Will Continue to Increase
December 31: Bank of America analysts stated in a report that in 2024, funds flowing into euro investment grade bonds will exceed those flowing into government bonds and stocks. Bank of America indicated that this trend is supported by an increased demand for higher yields as interest rate cuts lead to a decline in government bond yields. "As interest rates further decline in 2025, we believe that funds flowing into investment grade bonds will continue to increase, exceeding those flowing into other 'risk-free' assets."
$BTC

DBS Bank: Commodity Volatility May Persist, But Opportunities Still Exist
On December 30, DBS Bank's Chief Investment Office stated that due to tariff issues stemming from Trump's re-election, commodities will continue to fluctuate in the short term. Analyst Goh Jun Yong wrote in a report that any potential benefits from Trump's pro-growth policies will take time to materialize. In this context, DBS Bank's Chief Investment Officer advises investors to be selective, noting that there may be opportunities in precious metals and some soft commodities. The bank maintains its 12-month gold price target at $2835 per ounce. Goh stated that, as the fiscal deficit under Trump's administration in the U.S. seems set to grow, the structural reasons for gold remain compelling. In agriculture, as of mid-November this year, cocoa and coffee prices have risen by 123% and 44% respectively; amid supply challenges and resilient global demand, these commodities are expected to continue outperforming the market.

Musk battles MAGA over immigration issues, Trump supports Musk!
Musk stated that welcoming elite overseas engineering talent is "crucial for America's continued success," but critics argue that these visas undermine opportunities for American citizens who are qualified for these jobs.

Key financial data and events to focus on today: December 30, 2024, Monday
① 16:00 Switzerland December KOF Economic Leading Indicator
② 22:45 United States December Chicago PMI
③ 23:00 United States November Existing Home Sales Index Month-on-Month
④ 23:30 United States December Dallas Fed Business Activity Index

International News:
1. The cause of the Azerbaijani airline crash has been clarified for the first time; the President of Azerbaijan stated that the crash was caused by ground attacks, severely damaging the aircraft.
2. Musk reiterated his support for the far-right German party "Alternative for Germany" in a commentary article published in German media.
3. NVIDIA will launch its latest generation of compact computers for humanoid robots in the first half of 2025.
4. The leader of the Syrian Liberation Army announced that the Sham Liberation Organization will be dissolved at the national dialogue conference.
5. Multiple short-term incidents involving passenger aircraft have occurred globally: ① At South Korea's Ulsan Airport, a passenger aircraft collided and caught fire; aside from the rescue of 2 crew members, all remaining 179 people on board have been confirmed dead. The aircraft model was a Boeing 737-800, and part of the black box has been damaged, which will affect the progress of the investigation. The South Korean government declared a national mourning period from today until January 4 at 24:00. ② On the evening of December 28 local time, a KLM Royal Dutch Airlines Boeing 737-800 experienced a hydraulic failure shortly after takeoff and was diverted to land; currently, there are no reports of casualties. ③ On the evening of the 28th, a Canadian low-cost airline passenger plane caught fire upon landing at Halifax Airport, with some passengers suffering minor injuries. The statement indicated that the aircraft likely had landing gear issues and could not reach the terminal.

International News:
1. Intense clashes occurred between Afghan and Pakistani border troops, resulting in the deaths of 19 Pakistani soldiers and 3 Afghans.
2. Musk challenges MAGA, as Trump's alliance faces internal strife over immigration issues.
3. Canadian minister travels to the U.S. to "plead" for the cancellation of tariffs, proposing to invest 1 billion Canadian dollars to resolve border issues.
4. U.S. media: Trump conversed with TikTok's CEO.
5. Russia expands its entry ban list against European institutions and representatives of EU member states in response to the EU's new round of sanctions.
6. European Central Bank board member Holzmann: The ECB may consider waiting longer before the next interest rate cut.
7. Presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan spoke on the phone, with Putin expressing regret over the crash.

#加密ETF申请热潮涌现
Massive Options Expiration Triggers Bitcoin Volatility
On December 28, Bitcoin suddenly accelerated its decline in the early hours, dropping close to $93,000 at one point, but quickly recovered its losses and is now back above $94,000. According to Coinglass, in the last 24 hours, 92,500 people globally faced liquidation, with a total liquidation amount of $241 million. Media reports indicate that on December 27, Bitcoin experienced an options expiration worth $14.27 billion, with the largest open interest at a strike price of $90,000. Deribit, the derivatives exchange that holds a 72% market share in Bitcoin options, shows that the open contracts for call options amount to $8.45 billion, while the open contracts for put options total $5.82 billion. Data shows that the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange Deribit faced a record $43 billion in open contracts expiring on Friday, which includes $13.95 billion in Bitcoin options and $3.77 billion in Ethereum options. Industry insiders say that due to market makers potentially closing their hedging positions and shorting Bitcoin, Friday's market became unusually volatile. Meanwhile, Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of cryptocurrency fund Split Capital, previously stated that the market is hovering around $100,000, suggesting that large funds seem satisfied with this level, preparing to wrap up trading for the year.
$BTC

Google CEO: High stakes and risks in 2025, promoting Gemini is the top priority
On December 28, Google (GOOG.O) CEO Sundar Pichai told employees last week that 2025 will be a year of 'high stakes and risks' as the company faces intensifying competition, regulatory hurdles, and rapid advancements in artificial intelligence. Pichai stated that 'building large new businesses' is a top priority, which includes the Gemini application. Executives believe that Gemini will become Google's next application to reach 500 million users. The company currently has 15 applications that have achieved this milestone. Pichai said, 'The momentum for the Gemini application is strong, especially in the past few months. But we need to do some work in 2025 to close the gap and establish a leading position in this area.' He later added, 'Next year, promoting Gemini to consumers will be our top priority.' Additionally, Pichai showcased a chart of large language models, where Gemini 1.5 leads OpenAI's GPT and other competitors. Pichai said, 'I expect some back-and-forth in 2025. I believe we will reach cutting-edge levels.' He stated, 'Historically, you don’t always need to be the first, but you must execute well and be the best in your category. I think that’s what 2025 is about.'

Traders indicate that the Reserve Bank of India may be selling dollars to limit the depreciation of the rupee.

Israeli army deepens in southern Lebanon, Lebanese government accuses Israel of violating ceasefire agreement over 800 times
The 60-day execution period of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement is approaching halfway, and although both sides accuse each other of violating the agreement, the US-led international monitoring mechanism has not yet publicly intervened.