Market Analysis – BTC’s market share has dropped significantly, and AltCoin has a bargain-hunting opportunity

BTC has continued to trend lower in the past week. It even fell below the $60,000 mark on June 25 this week, reaching a low of $58,400. The main reason is that the Mt. Gox bankruptcy estate trustee announced that it will start returning BTC and BCH to creditors in July. Causing market panic and selling pressure, of course, the biggest impact is still on BTC.

The two major currencies BTC and ETH have been on a downward trend for about a month, while altcoins have been falling for more than several months. They entered the bear market early, with a drop of more than 50%. However, since BTC fell sharply yesterday morning, AltCoin has not fallen. Judging from the strength of the rebound, AltCoin seems to have completed the washout a while ago or the market believes that the decline has been too large, and it has strengthened significantly in the past two days. In the past week, BTC and ETH fell by 4.74% and 0.91% respectively, while the total market value of the cryptocurrency market excluding BTC and ETH increased by 2.55% during the same period, and BTC's market share rarely dropped by 1.8% in one day on June 24. % The phenomenon.

From a technical point of view, last week's weekly report mentioned that BTC has a high chance of falling. As of writing, BTC has successfully held on the $60,000 support planned in the past few months, which means that the buying power below is strong. At the same time, AltCoin has also Rebounding, this is the biggest potential bottoming signal since June, but we have to wait to enter the bull market immediately. At present, BTC still first looks at the downward trend line pressure area of ​​​​$63,000 and the large range midline pressure level of 66,000 U.S. dollars. You may want to look at consolidation before breaking through.

However, looking at the famous Fear and Greed indicator, in just one week it has turned from last week's Greed to Fear. The market has fallen to the point where fear has begun. Judging from the entry criteria on the left, the risk of taking over now will be It is much smaller, so GT Radar is expected to increase the leverage of the left-side entry strategy in the two follow-up investment groups this week.

In addition, if the recent trend is a warning that altcoins have hit the bottom, what are the targets that investors should consider entering the market first?

Based on the data from Messari and CoinGecko, we calculated the average performance of multiple concept sectors year to date. Each concept sector only counts the top ten currencies by market capitalization.

The results show that the performance of meme coins is significantly higher than that of other currencies, with an average return of over 1000%, followed by concept sectors such as RWA, AI and DePin. In comparison, tracks such as DeFi, interoperability protocols, and L2 expansion solutions that have been favored by the market in the past seem to be quite unpopular with investors this year.

However, although the meme currency itself is indeed the hottest concept sector this year, some of the characteristics of the meme currency itself (fair issuance, low market capitalization opening), etc., are the reasons for such amazing performance. In addition, although successful meme coins can bring high gains, most meme coins ultimately fail, so investors must consider carefully before making investment decisions.

Binance Copying Analysis

GTRadar – BULL

Copy link GTRadar – Balanced Follow the link

  • The yields of "GTRadar - BULL" and "GTRadar - Balance" in the past 7 days are -2.09% and -1.12% for the former, and -12.96% and -1.52% for the latter in the past 30 days.

  • The entire market has plunged again in the past week, with BTC falling below $58,000. It was not until yesterday, 6/25, that the market saw a major rebound. However, AltCoin has performed relatively strongly in the past few days and has stabilized and bottomed out. Therefore, the investment team expects to increase the order leverage of AltCoin this week.

  • Currently, "GTRadar - BULL" holds a net long position of about 30% (full position is 300%), among which SOL holds a larger position.

  • At present, the long and short positions of "GTRadar - Balance" are close to each other. The long orders are mainly BTC and SOL, and the short orders are mainly AVAX.

  • The long-term returns of a follower who frequently changes his investment portfolio are not as good as those of a follower who continues to follow a single group. Don’t end the follower easily just because of a short-term retracement. Judging from the curve, the retracement is a good time to start following. In and out, on the contrary, the yield rate will be significantly reduced.

hot news

On-chain data: The German government is suspected of liquidating 50,000 stolen Bitcoins

A cryptocurrency wallet labeled “Germany Government (BKA)” by on-chain intelligence firm Arkham made its first transfer of Bitcoin on June 19, a move that led many to believe the German government might be selling the Bitcoin it had seized. It is understood that these Bitcoins came from German police who seized a total of 50,000 bitcoins from a pirated movie syndicate during a raid in January this year. They are the largest cryptocurrency assets seized in Germany so far.

MicroStrategy purchased another 11,931 BTC

MicroStrategy, a US-listed company, announced on June 20 that it would use a total of $786 million in convertible note proceeds and excess cash to add another position to Bitcoin. The company acquired an additional 11,931 BTC in this transaction at an average price of approximately $65,883. As of June 20, 2024, the micro strategy held a total of 226,331 BTC at an average cost of approximately $36,798.

Standard Chartered Bank to set up Bitcoin and Ethereum spot trading desk

According to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, Standard Chartered Bank is setting up a trading desk for Bitcoin and Ether, which will make it one of the first international banks to introduce spot trading of cryptocurrencies. Two people familiar with the matter revealed that the new cryptocurrency trading desk will soon begin operations and will form part of the bank’s foreign exchange trading unit. The unit will operate out of London, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Venture capital firm Pantera is raising more funds to invest in TON tokens

According to "The Block" report, cryptocurrency investment institution Pantera sent an email to potential investors this week stating that the institution is raising funds for a new fund dedicated to investing in The Open Network (TON). It is reported that the fund is called "Pantera TON Investment Opportunity" and aims to raise funds to purchase more TON tokens.

Ethereum Gas Price Slumps, Hits Lowest Level Since 2020

Due to a significant reduction in on-chain transaction demand and the implementation of the Dencun upgrade on the Ethereum mainnet, which reduces the cost of sending transactions on the Layer 2 network, the median gas price on the Ethereum mainnet fell below 3 gwei on Saturday, which is the highest since 2020. This is the first time this level has been reached.

Mt.Gox announces it will repay creditors in BTC and BCH starting in early July

Bankrupt Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox announced on Monday (24th) that it will repay creditors in the form of Bitcoin (BTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) starting in early July 2024. Mt.Gox wallet holds approximately 141,000 Bitcoins (valued at $8.7 billion)

Galaxy Research Director: Bitcoin selling pressure will be less than market expectations

Alex Thorn, head of Galaxy’s research department, said on the About 20,000 BTC are owed to debt funds, about 10,000 BTC are owed to Bitcoinica BK, and the remaining 65,000 BTC will be distributed to individual creditors.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer: Many factors have forced BTC’s “future demand” to be brought forward, and tens of billions of dollars in new demand will be needed to maintain the status quo.

Matt Hougan believes that looking at the history of Bitcoin, various factors have led to "future market demand for Bitcoin" being pulled in advance and put into a "lock box." The biggest culprit is GBTC issued by Grayscale Asset Management.

The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data comes from GT Radar official website announcements. Each user may have slight differences due to different entry and exit prices, and past performance does not represent future performance!

This article GT Radar Radar Weekly Report 6/26: BTC’s market share has dropped significantly, and AltCoin has a bargain-hunting opportunity. It first appeared on Zombit.