Bitcoin moved within the range of 60624-62487 during the day
At the time of writing the Review, the price of Bitcoin was 61957
Market capitalization 2.23 trillion, dominance index 54.75%
Stock markets were rising yesterday. The S&P 500 closed with a gain of 0.34%, the Nasdaq rose more than 1%, but the Dow Jones was in the red by 0.76% RUT (index of small and mid-cap companies) was also in the red.
Again we see a familiar picture - only tech giants are growing. NVDA showed 6.76% growth yesterday after falling on Monday.
When growth is so fragmented, it is a sign of market weakness.
Yesterday real estate data came out (growth above expectations), from the point of view of the Fed's actions it is negative. The Fed speaker also spoke, saying that the Fed is ready to raise the rate if necessary. The probability of a rate cut on September 18 then decreased by 0.5% (the market did not take the threat seriously).
Here's something else I'll note.
Inflation data (CPI) has been declining for several months now. The inflation expectations index also showed a decline yesterday. But yesterday the Canadian CPI came out, and it was significantly higher than expected.
In the United States, conditions for prices for fuel and electricity are similar (in Canada they are even cheaper), prices for other goods and services are similar to those in the United States (except that real estate is slightly cheaper). Why then is inflation growing (and significantly) in Canada, while falling in the US?
There is only one explanation - the US CPI data is falsified in order to create a favorable background before the elections. I wonder what will happen when this is hidden, if a new team comes to power? They may keep quiet about this point so as not to undermine confidence in the Fed.
But I wonder how they will react economically to the situation, if the rate is not only raised further, but it is already problematic to maintain it due to the debt burden and other factors that were discussed earlier?
Now the dollar index is rising, and so are bond yields. This is bad for the market, but we'll see what happens closer to the American session.
Economic data will include real estate data today (at 17:00 Moscow time), and the results of annual stress tests in the banking sector (release time is unknown). The latter will be assessed according to the principle “the worse, the better.” Since the smaller the margin of safety of banks, the sooner the Fed will reduce the rate.
Bitcoin yesterday was within the morning forecast, moving towards the upper limit of the range, but was unable to pass the resistance area at 62400-62500. With the dollar index as it is now, the chances of this are becoming less, so the option “if you don’t hit, they hit you” may well work. In case of decline, the first support is at 60600. If it fails, there may be a test of Monday's lows.
IBIT grew by 4.55% yesterday (and fell by more than 7% on Monday).
The inflow into the ETF was 31 million (and the outflow on Monday was 174.5 million). So, positions have not yet been restored after the drain on Monday.
Let's see how events develop today, but I expect the main movements at the end of the week (Thursday-Friday), when important data will be released and movement will begin in all markets.
Gensler said yesterday that “The application approval process for Ethereum spot ETFs is proceeding smoothly. However, I don’t know the exact timing of adoption.”
This means that news about the start date of trading may appear at any time.
The priority option for today is Bitcoin in a range with a lower limit at 59000-58500 and an upper limit at 62400-62500.
Alternative - consolidation above 62500.
