Is the compensation from Mentougou bad news or good news?
740,000 BTC were stolen at the beginning, but now only 140,000 BTC can be compensated, and each user can only get about 19% of the compensation. At present, many investors estimate that it will bring price pressure, especially for BCH.
And BTC has "debt acceptance", similar to the situation of FTX selling debt in packages, that is, assets that cannot be accepted can be sold at a discounted price in advance. In other words, some people thought that the compensation time of Mentougou was too long, so when they learned that they could get 100 BTC, they were willing to sell the debt at 90 BTC or lower to get the "compensation" in advance (not the real compensation from Mentougou).
So in fact, there are already a lot of BTC in the hands of institutions, and the specific number cannot be verified.
The letter said that compensation will be made gradually. Although it is not known how long this time period is, it should not be too short. Therefore, even if all BTC are sold, the selling pressure generated every day will not be very large. If it is divided into ten days, then it will be about 14,000 BTC per day, which is not an exaggeration.
Of course, the current sentiment and liquidity are indeed worse, but the focus still depends on the macro situation in the future. Friday's PCE, next Friday's non-agricultural, and mid-month CPI will all affect sentiment and on-site funds. If these data are better than expected, then Mentougou's impact on the market will be minimized, and if these data are not good, then Mentougou's impact will inevitably be magnified.
But in any case, from the actual data, Mentougou's direct impact on the market is very limited.
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