WIF has started to rebound now. Is it accumulating funds again? Or is it in a rebound phase of distribution? How to identify and track it later? How to intervene in the long and short positions?
When the price is in the 1.4-1.5 range, the daily 4-hour levels are all oversold and have broken through the channel. The oversold trading volume has also increased, but it cannot be confirmed now that it is further accumulation of funds. If it is further accumulation of funds, we have to wait until the end of July to the beginning of August. Therefore, from the perspective of further accumulation of funds, if there is an upward trend, it is far from the position where intervention is needed.
Why is it the end of July to the beginning of August? According to Wyckoff's causal principle, the WIF accumulation phase we saw earlier is about 40 days, so if WIF is going to accumulate again, the time is the end of July to the beginning of August. If you want to make an upward trend order, we only need to track the trend of WIF before the oversold around the end of July. It cannot be regarded as panic selling for the time being. It looks more like a weak signal breaking the ice. We must wait for the next few K trends to confirm the status on the left. Then we need to confirm:
1. Whether the trading volume of the natural rebound can be similar to that of the previous downward wave.
2. Whether the amplitude of the natural rebound can create the largest rebound in a downward wave.
3. There must be a successful second bottom test, the 1.4 position, which cannot be broken. The best is a pin with reduced volume (which means that a lot of supply has been consumed by the decline after the rebound). The next best is a pin with increased volume (there is a lot of supply, but there is also a lot of demand).
Only by confirming the above three points can it be said that WIF may be accumulating funds again, otherwise it will be regarded as a retracement of the ice line after the distribution of breaking the ice.