I have briefly sorted out and analyzed the negative news about Mentougou's repayment and shared it with you:
①Mt.Gox will start the repayment of BTC and BCH in early July. The information has been confirmed and the repayment will be carried out in order.
② We checked the relevant data and found that the Mt.Gox trustee address holds more than 140,000 BTC, accounting for 0.72% of the circulation, with a value of about US$9 billion. This is equivalent to offsetting more than half of the ETF net inflow (because the combined net inflow of Grayscale GBTC outflow and other ETFs in the past five months is less than 300,000).
③About 940,000 bitcoins were stolen from Mt. Gox in 2014, which were worth $424 million at the time. Currently, more than 140,000 bitcoins have been recovered. Although only 15% has been recovered, creditors calculated in US dollars have gained more than 140 times the profit.
④ But it should be noted that the final amount of compensation distribution may be lower than market expectations, because these more than 140,000 BTC will not be compensated to creditors. According to the plan, creditors need to bear about 10% of the loss, and only about 95,000 will be used for compensation, of which 20,000 are owed to the claim fund, 10,000 are owed to Bitcoinica BK, and about 6,500 are owed to individual creditors. Therefore, the number of 6,500 is far lower than the expected selling pressure of more than 140,000.
⑤ Simply put, the Mentougou compensation will be carried out in early July, which has brought negative expectations to the crypto market, especially BTC, causing the market to fall sharply to around US$58,400 yesterday. The market sentiment is relatively panic, but the actual selling pressure in the future may not be as much as the expected 140,000-plus. If the market gradually digests and understands this plan and numbers, then the market may rebound.