Bitcoin was hit by the negative news of the Mentougou compensation last night, which directly broke through everything and continued the unilateral downward trend. The lowest point was 58,200. It is rare to see such a big drop at the end of the month in so many years. Bitcoin has made up for the drop, 72,000-58,000=14,000, a drop of 14,000 dollars in one wave. The big drop is a good thing, which accelerates the release of risks and paves the way for the market in the second half of the year. The most feared thing about the bull market wash is that there is no negative news. Generally, the wash is beneficial to the blessing of negative news. The sooner the defense line is broken, the faster the bull market will arrive. The recent negative news is:
1. Delayed rate cut. I don’t think so. There is a high probability of a rate cut before September.
2. K workers sell coins.
3. There was another compensation payment in Mentougou yesterday.
There are some uncertainties in the above three points. The interest rate cut may not be postponed, Mentougou will not sell coins, and miners have a bottom line for selling coins. These are not fundamental changes.
So I firmly believe that in the stage of shock and downward movement, there are three bottom-picking positions, with Bitcoin as the benchmark, which is to gradually bottom-pick. And only buy when there is bad news, not when there is good news. Because every bull market starts with bad news, usually you should do less and hold back and buy less. Bitcoin 70,000, 65,000, 60,000, the lower it goes, the smaller the risk will be.
It is of course a good thing that the negative line of Bitcoin is enlarged. If the K-line of BTC is horizontal with small negative and positive lines, all analysis is pale and powerless. Now the price has fallen back to the range of the last institutional position building. The altcoins have not fallen again. The individual coins have risen more and fallen less. Strong coins have taken advantage of the opportunity to rise.
BTC has a single-day 5% big negative line, so you can copy it directly. Now the short-term has entered the oversold stage. It can stop in the short term for 2~3 days. Even if it leaks down, it will be pulled back. It will take time for the mid-term to stabilize. The short-term volatility will increase and the opportunities for operation will increase. In the two-day oversold cycle, take advantage of the small-level decline of BTC and buy/go long in panic. Short-term pressure level 61770 ~ 62490, BTC short-term support level (short) 58850 ~ 57560
Based on the current situation, the trend of Bitcoin has basically reached the bottom. We have been paying attention to the altcoins. In the past two days, the altcoins have also started to pick up. The key is that they did not follow the decline. When it plummeted to around 58,000 at 4 a.m., only Bitcoin created a new low. The altcoins have stopped updating, and it is suspected that they have been oversold. Some altcoins have bottomed out. You can enter the market in batches if you are optimistic about them.
There are two big events in July.
The first one is ETH ETF (compulsory question, 20 points here, take it if you want)
Seize the opportunity of the pullback to layout the leader of the ETH ecosystem, change positions from the bottom and start again, and turn losses into profits (I will look for opportunities to layout and change positions in the small group).
The second thing is that Trump will attend the Nashville BTC 2024 conference on July 25
This is undoubtedly the biggest BTC event this year. After the adjustment in June, July is very worth looking forward to. Please be sure to seize the opportunity to layout during this pullback.
