Latest analysis of the Bitcoin market: fragile rebound and the impact of the Mentougou incident
Yesterday, the Bitcoin market experienced a violent shock. BTC fell directly below the 60,000-point mark from above 63,000 points under a large negative line of more than 5%, reaching a low of 58,402 points. Although Bitcoin quickly rebounded to around 60,000 points after the downward spike, market sentiment remains tense.
Technical analysis: Rebound in weakness
Bitcoin has been falling continuously since its high of 63,000 points, and yesterday's big negative line further verified its continued weak state. On the technical chart, Bitcoin has tested the support level of 60,000 points many times, and this break is particularly important.
Price trend: After yesterday's sharp drop, Bitcoin temporarily stabilized around 60,000 points, but the downward pressure is still great. The rapid rebound after the downward pin indicates that there is a certain amount of buying support, but whether it can stand firm needs further observation.
Technical indicators: MACD shows the strong power of the bears, while KDJ hovers at a low level, and a technical rebound may occur in the short term. But overall, the trend is still weak.
Support and resistance level: 60,000 points is currently the key support. If it falls below it again, the next step will be to test the support strength of 58,000 points. On the upside, attention should be paid to the resistance levels of 62,000 points and 63,000 points.
Event-driven: The heavy blow of the Mentougou incident
The direct cause of yesterday's sharp drop in Bitcoin was the latest news released by the Mentougou incident. The Mentougou incident has always been a black swan in the Bitcoin market, and every release of related news will have a significant impact on the market.
Impact of the incident: This news once again dealt a heavy blow to the already fragile Bitcoin market. Investor confidence was hit, and market selling pressure increased sharply, directly leading to the 60,000-point mark being broken.
Market sentiment: After the news was released, market panic spread rapidly, and a large number of sell orders emerged, causing the price of Bitcoin to fall sharply.
Daily chart:
Bitcoin market analysis: continued decline and central structure at the daily level
Looking at Bitcoin’s daily chart, the market is in a significant downward trend. The current daily level decline has almost directly touched the lower edge of the maximum range of the daily center, showing the extreme weakness of the market.
Technical analysis: Downward trend at the daily level
Daily level trend: Bitcoin is currently building the second rising center of the daily level, but the current operation is the downward segment of the daily level. This downward trend is quite obvious, with almost no decent rebound, directly approaching the lower edge of the center.
Central structure: The current decline shows that the market lacks buying support and the rebound is limited. From a structural point of view, only when a new structure appears in the next section will there be further operation opportunities. In other words, the market needs to form a clear bottom signal to provide bulls with an opportunity to enter the market.
Market unpredictability: Although the market was expected to make a daily correction, the actual correction process was more severe and lacked a rebound. This once again shows that the only certainty of the market is its unpredictability. Even with reasonable expectations, we must be prepared for sudden changes in the market.
Strategic recommendations:
In the face of the current market conditions, investors are advised to adopt cautious operating strategies:
Waiting for structural confirmation: In the downward segment of the daily level, wait patiently for new structural signals to appear in the market. Once a clear bottom pattern or reversal signal is formed, consider entering the market and going long.
Risk control measures: When the market lacks a clear direction, it is crucial to strictly control risks. Set a stop loss to avoid being trapped in the downward process.
Observe the support at the lower edge of the center: The current price is close to the lower edge of the center, and pay close attention to the support strength in this area. If this support can be maintained and there are signs of rebound, there may be a short-term rebound opportunity.
Bitcoin 4-hour level analysis: bull-bear battle and new central structure
From the 4-hour chart of Bitcoin, we can see that since Bitcoin broke through 60,000 points in late February, the market has been fluctuating at this level for nearly 5 months. During this period, the price did not get rid of the oscillation range of the 4-hour center (because there were no clear three types of buying and selling points). At present, the market is running the twelfth downward section, and the length of this section is the longest in the center. At the 60,000-point mark, the market bulls and bears will most likely start a fierce fight again, changing the current unilateral downward trend and constructing a new center of a new 4-hour downward trend type.
Key technology analysis
4-hour central axis oscillation: The oscillation in the past 5 months indicates that the market is in a long-term consolidation state. The current twelfth downward segment is the longest, which means that the downward pressure is large, but it also indicates that the long and short sides will start a fierce battle near 60,000 points.
New Central Structure: The high probability of the market fighting at the 60,000-point mark will lead to the formation of a new 4-hour central axis. In this case, the market may get rid of the unilateral decline in the short term and turn to shock consolidation, providing an opportunity for the bulls to counterattack.
Altcoins counterattack: It is worth noting that despite the continued decline of Bitcoin, most altcoins in the market have stopped falling and even started to rebound. This shows that the market bullish sentiment has recovered and funds have begun to flow into some strong altcoins. These varieties may become the focus of attention and layout in the future.
Strategic Recommendations
Pay attention to the new central axis structure: The current 60,000-point mark will be a fierce battlefield for both long and short sides, and investors should pay close attention to the price reaction at this position. Once the market forms a new 4-hour central axis, it will provide clearer guidance for subsequent operations.
Focus on altcoins: Some altcoins have shown resistance to the decline of Bitcoin and even started to rebound. This shows that funds have intervened. In the future, these strong varieties may become the pioneers of the market rebound and can be the focus of attention and layout.
Be defensive and control risks: When the market is not clear about the direction, investors need to be cautious. Strictly set stop loss to avoid being trapped during the shock process.
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