In the past two weeks, the dark cloud hanging over the BTC price is not only the continuous outflow of spot ETFs, but also the time bomb of Mt. Gox. Today, Mt. Gox trustees officially started to repay creditors. According to Mt. Gox trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi, the compensation will be paid in BTC and will start in early July. Combined with the 14,000 BTC transferred from the Mt. Gox address a month ago, the market immediately reacted to the risk after the news came out, causing BTC to plummet in the short term, once dropping below 61,000.

Source:  Farside Investors; TradingView

In terms of options, the increase in actual volatility and market concerns about the future market have greatly raised the level of implied volatility at the front end. At the same time, the front-end Vol Skew has also maintained a positive correlation with the price, falling to the negative range. From the perspective of BTC trading, before the news, although the price has been falling for several consecutive days, the Flow concentrated in the market at the end of June is still dominated by Long Risky. Perhaps the low price attracted the bottom-fishing of call options, or the trust in the two key support levels of 61000/60000.

Regarding ETH, the president of The ETF Store once again stated that the Ethereum spot ETF may be launched next week, which gave the community some hope. Market expectations also pushed the smile curve to tilt towards call options after July, which was in sharp contrast with the front end. However, there seemed to be differences in the market. Under the conditions of high IV and high Vol Skew, more than 3,000 4000-C were sold at the end of July, becoming a hot spot for yesterday's trading.

Source: Deribit (as of 24 JUN 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

Source: SignalPlus, front-end IV rises after plunge

Source: SignalPlus，Vol Skew

Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of ETH transactions

Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of BTC transactions

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade

You can search SignalPlus in the Plugin Store of ChatGPT 4.0 to get real-time encryption information. If you want to receive our updates immediately, please follow our Twitter account @SignalPlus_Web3, or join our WeChat group (add assistant WeChat: SignalPlus 123), Telegram group and Discord community to communicate and interact with more friends. SignalPlus Official Website: https://www.signalplus.com