About $4 billion worth of Ethereum options are set to expire on June 28, with the bulls and bears concentrated around $3,500.
The recent consolidation of ether prices has weakened the market's expectations for a monthly close above $4,000. Initially, ether prices rose 23% on May 20, driven by optimism about the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF, which made market bulls optimistic about the future trend of Ethereum. However, ether prices have not been able to maintain above $3,600 since then. Market data shows that as of June 28, Deribit had about $3.5 billion in ETH options expired, followed by $286 million and $142 million in ETH options expired on other exchanges. These factors have combined to suppress the rise in ether prices. The SEC's continued review of the S-1 filings of ETF providers has further reduced the possibility of ether prices breaking through $4,000 this month.
Market Airdrop Does Not Expect Ethereum to Fall Below $3,000
As confirmed by SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, Ethereum bulls did not anticipate the large delay between regulatory approval of spot ETFs and actual trading. It is still unknown whether trading will be open in the next three months, which has suppressed bullish expectations for the June 28 option expiration. Meanwhile, on June 19, the US SEC concluded its investigation into whether Ether is classified as a security, which resolved a major regulatory issue for investors and made the Ethereum airdrop a surprise. As stated in a letter to Consensys, this decision by the SEC means that Consensys will no longer be scrutinized for selling ETH.
Deribit reports $3.5 billion in open interest for monthly options expiring on June 28. However, market sentiment suggests that outcomes above $4,000 or below $3,000 for Ethereum are considered unrealistic. The 0.62 put-call ratio suggests that the market remains imbalanced, with $2.2 billion in call (buy) open interest and $1.3 billion in put (sell) options. The reason for this discrepancy is that the right to sell ETH at $3,300 or $3,400 becomes irrelevant if the Ethereum price exceeds these levels at expiration.
Market bulls target $3,800, potential gain of $500 million
Based on current options data, ETH prices are likely to remain balanced at $3,500 until the June 28 expiration, unless the SEC unexpectedly approves an ETH spot ETF. This outcome should be seen as a win for bears, given that ETH prices broke through $3,800 a few weeks ago.
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