Original author: Mike
Source: Foresight Research
A. Market View
1. Macro liquidity
Monetary liquidity has improved. The Fed expects inflation to improve further moderately. The US dollar is approaching a new high in 2024, and the strengthening of the US dollar is boosted by interest rates and political turmoil. The US stock market is generally on an upward trend, and global funds are flocking to the US stock market. In the past month, about US$30 billion of new funds have flowed into the US stock market. The crypto market has clearly underperformed the US stock market.
2. Market conditions
The top 100 companies with the highest market capitalization:
This week, BTC fluctuated and fell, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate strengthened. The altcoin market was bleak, and the European Cup attracted the market's attention. The ETH ETF is likely to be approved in early July, and the main line of the market rebound is around the ETH system.
1. LDO: It is the leader of ETH pledge and will continue to develop re-pledge business in the future. ETH is recognized by the US SEC as not a security, which is beneficial to the later ETH ETF pledge business. 2. ZK: It is ETH's ZK L2, market-making by Wintermute, and its listing performance is unsatisfactory. The ETH chain gas fee hit a new low in 8 years. 3. ZRO: It is a star cross-chain bridge project, with a relatively stingy airdrop and a market value close to W in the same track.
3. BTC market
1) On-chain data
The market is shrinking and consolidating. Despite the wide fluctuations in the market, BTC investors are still profitable. However, investor interest has declined, and the spot derivatives market and on-chain trading volume are continuing to shrink. Usually after BTC hits a new high, the market needs sufficient time to integrate and digest the resulting selling pressure.
The market capitalization of stablecoins remained flat, and the recent trend of capital inflows slowed down.
Institutional funds have started to flow out continuously. However, ETH has seen a large net inflow against the trend because of the upcoming launch of spot ETF.
The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom range. MVRV falls below the key level of 1, and the holders are generally in a loss state. The current indicator is 2.1, entering the middle stage.
2) Futures market
Futures funding rate: The rate dropped slightly this week. The rate is 0.05-0.1%, with more long leverage, which is the short-term top of the market; the rate is -0.1-0%, with more short leverage, which is the short-term bottom of the market.
Futures open interest: BTC open interest continued to decline this week.
Futures long-short ratio: 1.3, market sentiment is neutral. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a reverse indicator, below 0.7 is more panic, above 2.0 is more greedy. Long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and its reference value is weakened.
Futures long-short ratio: 2.3, retail investors are in a high mood to buy at the bottom, and the market is likely to have not fallen through. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a reverse indicator, below 0.7 is more panic, and above 2.0 is more greedy. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and its reference value is weakened.
3) Spot market
BTC and SOL are both adjusted weekly, and are likely to be in early August. ETH, TON, and BASE are performing strongly. ETH ETF will be approved in early July, TON will be listed on Binance Exchange in the near future, and BASE will introduce new wallet traffic from Coinbase. ETH is likely to be the main market trend in the next month.
B. Market Data
1. Total locked-up amount of public chains
2. TVL Proportion of Each Public Chain
This week's TVL was $100.9 billion, down $10.7 billion, or 9.6%. This week, the TVL of the mainstream public chains almost all fell. Except for the MERLIN chain, which rose 3%, the TRON chain fell 3%, the BSC chain fell 5%, the SOLANA chain fell 4%, the BASE chain fell 2%, the BTC chain, the POLYGON chain both fell 4%, and the OP chain fell 5%. The AVALANCHE chain fell 12%. This month, the TVL of the mainstream public chains fell sharply, and only the TON chain rose 15% this week and 108% this month. The market is currently entering a period of adjustment, and the future short-term performance of the TON and SOLANA ecosystems can be focused on.
3. Locked Amount of Each Chain Protocol
1) ETH locked amount
2) BSC locked amount
3) Polygon locked-up amount
4) Arbitrum locked amount
5) Optimism locked amount
6) Base locked amount
7) Solana locked amount
4. Changes in NFT Market Data
1) NFT-500 Index
2) NFT market situation
3) NFT trading market share
4) NFT Buyer Analysis
This week, the floor price of blue-chip projects in the NFT market fell sharply, and the market is still falling. This week, CryptoPunks fell 13%, BAYC fell 17%, Pudgy Penguins fell 28%, Space Doodles fell 35%, Azuki fell 23%, The Captainz fell 16%, MAYC fell 22%, and LilPudgys fell 29%. In addition, only Milady rose 4%. This week, the overall transaction volume of the NFT market declined slightly, and the transaction volume of blue-chip projects also fell by about 20% in the past week. The number of first-time and repeat buyers is also gradually declining. Overall, the NFT market is still extremely bleak and the market environment is extremely harsh.
V. Latest project financing situation
6. Post-investment dynamics
1) Rango — Cross-chain DEX and cross-chain bridge aggregator
Rango announced the completion of a new round of financing, led by Binance Labs, with participation from Nomad Capital and Foresight Ventures. The specific amount of financing was not disclosed. Rango aims to provide users with the best transaction rates by aggregating the liquidity of multiple DEXs and cross-chain bridges. Rango currently supports networks including Bitcoin, EVM chain, Solana, Tron, Cosmos ecosystem, Starknet and other UTXOs, and plans to support Bitcoin Layer2, Ton, Move and other blockchains in the future.
2）Space and Time — Data
The Space and Time team has announced the work they have been doing for the past 3 years to deliver the first sub-second ZK validator for blockchain data. SQL proofs are a foundational ZK technology that will usher in a new era of data-driven smart contracts and sophisticated on-chain AI agents. Giving smart contracts and AI agents that transact on-chain the ability to monitor the entire history of their chain, other chains, and even off-chain data using ZK proofs to ensure nothing has been tampered with. For example, when any DeFi protocol, on-chain game, or lending market needs a ZK-proven on-chain query result, its contract can send a query request to SxT and pay the computational costs required to execute the query and proof. The SxT endpoint contract emits an event on-chain, and this SxT validator node listens for that event.
3) Pixelverse — Web3 entertainment studio and gaming ecosystem
SPixelverse announced that it has completed a $5.5 million financing round, led by Delphi Ventures, Merit Circle, and Mechanism Capital, with participation from Bitscale Capital, Foresight Ventures, Ghaf Capital, Big Brain Holdings, and LiquidX. Angel investors include The Sandbox founder Sébastien Borget, Pudgy Penguins CEO Luca Netz, Dingaling, DCF GOD, Grail, and James Kwon.
Pixelverse is a cyberpunk-themed entertainment studio and gaming ecosystem that aims to drive mass adoption of Web3 by creating games with low barriers to entry and immersive gaming experiences.
