Using the Jackson Hole meeting in August to discuss future policies, Carpenter believes that Powell will not commit to any immediate changes, but he may be more cautious about the direction of the economy and he must ensure the Fed's flexibility in "raising interest rates."
Expressing doubts about Jin Shi’s broadcast, Jin Shi’s focus is on the market’s judgment of the current situation, while Fed staff will express their opinions, but they will never be too sure of one thing.
The important point of the July meeting minutes is that they are still data-oriented. However, there are disputes in the meeting minutes.
1. FOMC: Several officials believe that the risk of excessive tightening of financial conditions needs to be considered
2. Most Fed officials believe that inflation faces "significant" upside risks. Fed meeting minutes: Inflation risks may require further tightening of policy
3.FOMC: Some officials believe that rising house prices indicate that the industry's response to rate hikes has peaked
4.FOMC: Officials will judge the next interest rate decision based on the "overall" of economic and inflation data
5. FOMC: Staff currently sees no recession in 2023, with slower economic growth in 2024-25
6.FOMC: Some officials believe bank credit conditions are tighter than expected
7.FOMC: Some officials are concerned that tightening financial conditions could lead to a greater-than-expected economic slowdown
etc.....
All of the above once again explains why Fitch downgraded the US debt rating due to the current uncertainty and instability.
The focus of this round of minutes is that the committee will continue to monitor the impact of new information on the economic outlook. The committee will be prepared to adjust the monetary policy stance as appropriate. The committee's assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
To put it bluntly, we still need to continue to refer to subsequent data, such as CPI, PCE, large and small non-farm payrolls, etc. Looking at these data now, the result of whether to raise interest rates or stop interest rates in the future is probably very clear.
